Thursday, October 2, 2014

SNP lead across the board in poptastic Panelbase poll

Thanks to Scottish Skier for alerting me to a new full-scale Scottish poll from Panelbase, which corroborates the impression given by recent subsamples from GB-wide polls that the SNP are probably in the lead in voting intentions for the Westminster general election, albeit perhaps not by as wide a margin as the subsamples have suggested.

Westminster voting intention :

SNP 34%
Labour 32%
Conservatives 18%
UKIP 6%
Liberal Democrats 5%

The SNP also have a handsome lead for the Scottish Parliament election of 2016...

Scottish Parliament constituency voting intention :

SNP 42%
Labour 27%
Conservatives 15%
UKIP 5%
Liberal Democrats 5%

Scottish Parliament regional list voting intention :

SNP 37%
Labour 27%
Conservatives 16%
Greens 9%
Liberal Democrats 5%
UKIP 4%

I'm on my mobile at the moment, so I'll update the Poll of Polls when I get home tonight.

22 comments:

  1. It infuriates me that people vote differently for Westminster. If the SNP had 50 MPs in 2015 they could well hold the balance of power!

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  2. Watch the Westminster figures.

    These were past vote weighted on 2010 apparently. Could mean significant SNP down-weighting.

    Holyrood VI also weighted to the low turnout EU election which is frankly stupid and again could depress SNP VI.

    Still, Holyrood numbers could readily yield another small SNP majority with up to 59% of MPs pro-indy.

    For Westminster, those numbers even taken at face value should send a shiver along Labour benches looking for a spine to crawl up.

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  3. Did the Greens get a mention in the poll, or are they bunged in with the 6% "others"? I'd like to see them hold the balance of power in 2016.

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  4. Well that was idiotic of me. I see the Greens are listed in the regional results.

    Fingers crossed they overtake the Lib Dems this time. This has to be their best ever chance of doing so.

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  5. I think it's interesting that the Tory vote in Scotland seems to have been more resilient against UKIP than their counterparts in England (and Wales, I think). Possibly because the Tories are already down to their hard core in Scotland and couldn't go much lower.

    I would be wary of Scottish VI polls at this stage. I don't think many Scots will have started thinking closely about the elections (2015 or 2016) yet, given the prominence of the referendum.

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  6. I am very wary of talk of polls under representing SNP. Recent history making me that way.

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  7. Not sure why Alan.

    Many polls ahead of the referendum massively underestimated Yes until the final month. Yougov, TNS and MORI were all miles away until just weeks to go.

    Anyway, based on Holyrood VI, that's 55% of MSPs pro indy. Nice.

    Survation telephone got 49% SNP recently, so 46% or so seems right - landslide territory.

    Why Panelbase thought it apparently wise to weight to 2010 for Westminster I've no idea. Every single pollster bar Yougov (still partly with then Kellner correction) stopped doing that because it was so wrong for such obvious reasons.

    The pollsters that used just 2011 came closest in final polls.

    For Westminster, any poll showing the SNP ahead will have Labour crapping bricks. That's all they care about.

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  8. The trouble is, for Westminster FPTP, the SNP can easily be ahead in vote share, but still be significantly behind in seats. And the inevitable non-uniform swing usually seems to make it worse.

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  9. I think the important point is that this is not just due to the SNP being popular, but to Miliband being very unpopular. The referendum campaign effect may diminish, but Miliband is not going to become any more popular before the election and I predict that his weakness will be further exposed in any televised leader's debates. The other unknown is whether the new mass membership of the SNP will make a difference if the SNP decide to prioritise any Labour seats in 2015

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  10. The trouble is, for Westminster FPTP

    In 2011 under FPTP (1st vote for Constituency), the SNP won 73% of seats; 53/73.

    There's no real problem with FPTP being 'unfair' on the SNP if people vote for them in large numbers.

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  11. James, since we are looking at the next WM GE and HR GE, would it be possible to forecast what you think the number of SNP MPs would be and in what seats a 'pact' could unseat Labour?

    This wuold be useful info for LFI and any pact that might be visited

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  12. Scottish Skier, agreed. My point is that the SNP needs quite a few more votes than Labour does to get the same number of seats. So a 2% WM lead, which is what we have at the moment, won't cut it.

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  13. Didn't get home tonight then, did we James? ;)

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  14. The way things are going with the devo proposals, I dont think the sno have much to worry about. Ruth davidson ruling out devo max, labour effectively saying it wont happen due to the implications for the union. Lib dems being reduced to a political non entity.

    The Snp are the only party in Scotland that represent the views of a majority. I fully expect them to be involved in any leaders debates as well btw.

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  15. I fully expect them to be involved in any leaders debates as well btw.

    I don't see any likelihood of this changing without a legal challenge to effectively ban them. They won't let Sturgeon into the national televised debates.

    TBH the Greens should also be challenging the effect National coverage where UKIP is now a Major Party cost them a European seat to UKIP. Or would it have been a third SNP seat. Either way it has to be addressed.

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  16. As expected, total dog's breakfast of a 2010 weighting from panelbase.

    Unweighted base 2011 vote:

    42% SNP
    31% Lab
    14% Con
    8% Lib
    4% Green
    2% Other

    So not far off at all with very little 2011 weighting required. Sample looks fairly representative.

    How the same sample says it voted in 2010:
    17% Con
    31% Lab
    12% Lib
    36% SNP
    2% UKIP
    2% Other

    Aye, so that's right. I remember that stunning SNP win vividly; a precursor to 2011.

    Dear, dear panelbase. Only people being honest are Tories + UKIP etc.

    Of course the result is huge SNP respondent down-weighting etc and as a result, a small SNP lead.

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  17. EU weighting a pigs ear too, which doesn't help SNP.

    Come on panelbase, pick the most recent important general election (2011) in Scotland and stick with that; you are starting to look silly. The pollsters that did that for the iref came closest.

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  18. Alasdair, I've heard they are already in talks regarding being involved.

    Whether it's as part of a 2nd tier of debates with the smaller parties or if they are going to lump all 5 major parties in, remains to be seen. Up to the tv companies, but due to the snp rise as well as the impact of UKIP being highlighted it wouldn't be too much of stretch to imagine all 5 being involved.

    If the SNP manage to do it, arguing for devo max for Scotland which is broadcast to all parts of Britain would be dynamite.

    If they don't get in, fully expect a legal challenge.



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  19. @chalks
    Who are the "5 major parties"? Tories, Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, UKIP? If they include the SNP and UKIP they'd surely have to include Plaid, who unlike UKIP won MPs in 2010; and if they include all of those, how can they exclude the Greens?

    I can't see them extending it beyond the three amigos.

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  20. They'd include SNP/UKIP based on members as well as the fact it would be interesting TV...Plaid don't have the same amount of members nor influence as the SNP do in Scotland compared with Wales....same with the Greens.

    UKIP are of course one of the largest parties when it comes to Europe, so they could in my opinion have a good argument to be included, especially considering they may well have an MP and in recent polls are garnering more votes than the Lib Dems.

    You might be right though, all I've been told is they are in talks about the leaders debates.

    So it could be as part of a 2nd tier of parties debating, but it wouldn't be very interesting, at least not as interesting as if you had the 5 biggest parties

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