Thursday, September 18, 2014

YouGov prediction leaves Yes still in the game

I can now say what I didn't dare say before the polls closed - there have been some really disturbing rumours flying around that there was evidence of a very substantial last-minute swing to No. But YouGov have now released a 'final prediction', based on recontacting respondents after they had voted, and although it's certainly not good news, it's nowhere near as bad as the figures that were being rumoured.

Yes 46% (-2)
No 54% (+2)


So obviously if Yes are going to have a chance of winning, we're going to need there to be some kind of systemic problem with YouGov's methodology. But at least, as of this moment, we're still in the game.

104 comments:

  1. Kellner said he's 99% confident No will win.

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  2. What numbers were you hearing?

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  3. It's all over I feel for Yes.

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  4. Kellner said at the risk of looking stupid. We will see.

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  5. This has shaken my confidence in Yes' hopes for tonight. We need to find out whether there has been something sneaky going on in the poll's methodology.

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  6. I'm a No and am hoping for any win, large or small. But I've got to say YouGov suck the big one. They had an enormous No lead not so long ago and guys like yourselves said they were talking pants and I reckon you were right.
    Kellner even had the cheek to slag off the other polling companies which showed a much smaller No lead - now it appears Yougov are pretty much falling in line with these same pollsters.
    Ironically, the best thing that ever happened to the No campaign was the rapid drop off of the YouGov No lead (as, in reality, they were sorting themselves out) followed by YouGov even showing a Yes lead. This has galvanised the No support or I reckon Yes might have sneaked.
    As I said, I'm a firm No but kind of like this site/blog because though you're heavily biased, you freely admit it and are honest and offer the appropriate caveats or whatever where appropriate.

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  7. What are we basing these funereal ruminations on?
    A yougov poll that may be flawed?
    None of us knows the result right now.
    Fair enough if anyone has solid evidence but frankly im not sure that's even possible right now.
    Whole swathes of working class Scotland who never vote have just voted.
    I don't know what the result will be, but there's something a bit odd about all these predictions of gloom *not backed up by anything more than a yougov poll*

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  8. I think Al Skinner is right, perhaps we're being too absolute in our predictions at this stage.

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  9. To be fair it's not an exit poll so it's of as much value as the other opinion polls. Very small sample with the rumoured huge turnout.

    Also worth mentioning that in the AV Referendum in 2011 YouGov were 8% out. ....

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  10. It doesn't look good for Yes. 54-46 in favour of no according to yougov, betting markets shifting massively towards no, and London ministers 'relieved' (UK polling report).

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  11. Ruth Davison confident of No win based on ballot box samples.

    I think it's going to be a bit of a damp squib for Yes.

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  12. I read a Tweet from someone in the Scotsman saying that turnout in Dundee is 90% and in East Lothian is around 76%.

    Could be significant as a Yes vote is expected in Dundee but would expect a No in East Lothian.

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  13. More info:

    "YouGov bases its prediction on the responses of 1,828 people after they voted today, together with those of 800 people who had already voted by post. Today’s respondents had previously given their voting intention earlier this week. By recontacting them, we could assess any last-minute shift in views. Today’s responses indicate that there has been a small shift on the day from Yes to No, and also that No supporters were slightly more likely to turn out to vote."

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  14. YouGov asked the same people that they asked yesterday or a few days ago. They were bound to get similar result.
    Plus 800 postal voters.
    Obvious they were going to get slightly better numbers for No because elderly use postal votes more than others.
    Crazy to call it at this time.

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  15. I hope so Fitzy!

    Above all, I want to see some real results before
    even beginning to conclude anything.
    It's also possible that we'll only know who's won when Glesga/Embra etc have declared.

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  16. Didn't Kellner say Labour had won the Euro elections in the TV studio, just before the SNP won?

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  17. Yougov could not possibly have factored a 90% turnout. No way has Yes dropped from 51 - 46 in 10 days when progress has been made in every other poll. This is counter intuitive to the idea of Yes surge. Is this halfwit telling us Yes closed a 22 point gap in 6 weeks then lost a chunk of those points in the last 48 hrs...i smell shite!!

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  18. If it's no then the war starts tomorrow.

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  19. William hill have dramatically shortened odds on a No win, now 1-12

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  20. William Hill are probably basing that on the YouGov poll...

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  21. Guys, you're whistling in the dark. Kellner was confident of a No win yesterday. Now he knows they have won.

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  22. Yes leading on Tiree.

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  23. Hyndland in Glasgow's west end also around 78 per cent turnout according to my partner who was there at the close. Given the number of toffs here, that could be good for yes!

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  24. OK, so YouGov have proof of a cold-feet swing. But I am still wondering how can they apply weighting to the first-time/occasional voter?

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  25. If the Dundee turnout of 90% is correct and the 76% turnout in East Lothian and 78% turnout in Hyland are correct...it does look like possible case of differential turnout.

    Although we would need more data to make that assurance.

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  26. I am a very positive person and its not over until its over. This repolling after voting is new to me so I am not sure what to do with it.

    What this does affirm is possibly the state of play on what I have termed the 2010 voting population of around 2,600,000.

    There have been lots of new voters, the missing million.

    YES needs to gain a disprportionate share of that vote to catch up with NO.

    At 48/52 as a starting point, the path to do that was pretty clear.

    But at 46/54, the path to get parity amongst the missing million has become twice as high.

    James may be unable to delve into the rumours and if they were based on campaign private polling.

    At this point I can not see YES going lower than 46.

    I can see YES closing the 46/54 gap, the only question is how much of that gap was closed because of todays ground game and no to yes switches as shown on social media.

    YES has received more votes than any political party has received in any election in Scotland.

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  27. If Kellner said 99% he must be VERY confident. If he was wrong that would be devastating for him/Yougov's reputation.

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  28. Some bad data here (probably)

    #RUMOUR: Very strong No lead in North Lanarkshire, Glasgow and Clackmannanshire postal votes.

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  29. CNN reporting their Poll-of-Polls gives Yes 58%, No 52%.

    IOW, everybody makes mistakes and there's no point worrying about things now.

    (and back to lurking)

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  30. The rumour is from the @BritainElects Twitter.

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  31. BBC showing Labour source saying YES have won Glasgow

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  32. How can Kellner possibly be so sure that it'll be a no vote. The most recent poll has used a v small sample of people who have already been polled this week. Have the first time voters been factored in to any polls?
    I don't know how anyone can state they're 99% sure no will take it. Surely everything is still up for grabs.

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  33. Seriously, people, I think we should start to be realistic. This does not look like we're in for a big surprise. Now there's nothing we can do. Just wait and let the votes be counted.

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  34. Just wanted to say at this point where, despite all rumours and polls, nobody can know much for sure I am grateful for the honesty of James's site which has, even to this No guy, been fair and enlightening. (The high profile headlines were I always felt a riposte to other No-friendly distorted headlines and fair enough given that.)

    Sure there have been angry insults from contributors but nothing to stop free speech.

    So well done. And Good Luck to all.

    PS if anyone wants to know the extraordinary history of how Rupert Murdoch, as I predicted, jetted into Scotland on his private plane, intending to back Yes, went round a few pubs and eventually decided (a) he did not like Salmond's commitment to the EU and (b) he was not sure of winning, I'll post but I doubt it is of much interest now.

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  35. @anonymous, I assume that would be a postal lead which I think is assumed because they in theory would be old people.

    @All, on twitter there are comments that the weighting by youguv of postal ballots may be "high."

    @MooMoo, I thought you wrote that Labour said NO won Glasgow and with the other news I had walked away. But its me eyes. :)

    @James Kelly, you still write YES is in the game and after digesting the above, I agree.

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  36. @ Xabi

    What do you mean we're not in for a big surprise? I'd like to hear you expand your thoughts on this.

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  37. Xabi is probably suggessting No will win?

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  38. Labour campaigner on my FB says he is sure Yes will win Edinburgh, but still thinks No will win Glasgow.

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  39. The following are coming in at 0200.

    What kind of results should we look for?

    North Lanarkshire,
    Orkney,
    East Lothian
    Perth
    and Kinross.

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  40. North Lanarkshire should be between 55-60% Yes (if Yes are looking to win nationally).

    Orkney will be a No. East Lothian will be a No.

    Perth & Kinross is an area with a high SNP vote but also a high Tory vote so i'm unsure.

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  41. It was Gordon Brown wot dun it!

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  42. Calling it quits. Maybe next time.

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  43. R+A voted Yes, things happens in two,s and I am confidently expecting the second portion of my double to come in.

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  44. From Rics Twitter;

    "Right so Dundee first count has Yes at 71% now if that's confirmed we need to understand that just yesterday BT claimed Dundee was 54% NO!"

    What is a first count?

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  45. Found an earlier today tweet saying this so guess it would be good news: 60% or more for YES in Glasgow and 70% YES in Dundee could be enough to win #ComeOnScotland

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  46. Carmichael chatting with Andrew Marr, indignantly proclaiming he's always been in Team Scotland, in the next breath talking up Orkney & Shetland secession.

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  47. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  48. Likely 90% in Dundee (Sky news)

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  49. James Cook ‏@BBCJamesCook 1m

    Yes camp "much happier now than half an hour ago". Senior source says Glasgow "looking good for us". #indyref #Scotland

    BELIEVE

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  50. Turnout at my polling station in Dundee was only 57.1%. This did not include postal voters of course but 90%? Seems very unlikely to me.

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  51. James Cook BBC just tweeted that Yes much happier than it was half an hour ago. Senior source says 'Glasgow looking good for us'

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  52. So Dundee is on track for 70 plus. with 90 turnout. So far so good.

    But what is first count?

    Oh, thanks for the other figures like 60% Glasgow.

    At the moment, I am content with 46% youguv moving closer to 50% actual so Peter Kellner will look like a fool.

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  53. What are the safeguards for postal votes?

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  54. George

    First count is when they have counted all the votes first time round. Can't remember from my political days how many counts there are - 2?

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  55. Search for first count in here George http://www.westlothian.gov.uk/CHttpHandler.ashx?id=5033&p=0

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  56. From RICS, is this online, below line, above goal?

    "STV reporting that North Ayrshire should be more than 55% in favour of a Yes vote"

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  57. Text from that pdf on first count: Immediately after the last ballot box has been received at the count check in, the Counting Officer must confirm to the CCO that all ballot boxes have been received. There are three principal phases of the counting process: • The Verification of ballot paper accounts • The First Count (of votes in each ballot box) plus addition of processed postal votes following their receipt • The Second Count (of votes for each option) producing provisional local totals (for Yes, No and rejected). At the count agents are requested to closely observe each stage of the count and raise any questions or concerns with count staff at each stage so as to get them dealt with immediately. Once each has been completed, it will not be possible to go back later to review any aspect of a stage.

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  58. @Sioux and Andy, Thanks for that....

    Sooooo, other than Peter Kellner we are doing OK starting with Dundee. Plus Labour is conceeding Glasgow which could be very well and STV seemed interested in N. Ayershire going YES.

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  59. Dundee 71% Yes on 1st count according to RIC.

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  60. Saw Peter Kellner saying NO had won. Immediately went into a tailspin of depression.

    Can you imagine if this is true ? the BritNats will be insufferable, fed up.

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  61. Anyone got a link to the RIC twitter feed? All I'm finding is a property twitter account.

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  62. Voice

    https://twitter.com/Radical_Indy

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  63. Edinburgh postal vote said to be 2:1 in favour of No ( 5 mins ago on Radio 4).

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  64. Rics is radical_indy. Reading extract above I provided I think "first count" may be a red herring as doesn't seem to involve actually counting what way the vote went just the total number of ballots cast.

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  65. BBC saying No campaign has said they'll win Falkirk. Falkirk was probably a bit of a bellwether so not good...

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  66. Clackmannan turnout 89%.

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  67. Ruth Davidson just said she believes Yes will win North Lanarkshire 51 to 49. Is that a good or bad indicator. Not sure what the expectation was for this county.

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  68. What do people make of this:

    http://www.theliberal.ie/shock-yes-vote-conclusively-ahead-in-scotland-on-exit-polls/

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  69. I did a prediction which gave 52% to Yes, but for a 52% Yes nationally there would need to be approx a 57-58% at North Lanarkshire.

    51% would be a bad result for Yes there.

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  70. Image going viral of Yes votes stacked in the No pile in Motherwell. Any info? What's going on??

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  71. Found this useful to show all the councils by population. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subdivisions_of_Scotland

    Bit confused why we care about Dundee when it seems small in population terms but I may be missing something?

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  72. Yes sources predict 54 - 46% win in Glasgow.

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  73. Helloooo....to the comment above. There is no such thing as "bellwether's" in a referendum

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  74. Doesn't seem high enough for Glasgow!! BBC news: Yes sources say data suggest Glasgow could be 54% yes, 46% no. Mood quite flat in the Yes camp though. #indyref #Scotland

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  75. LOL, there are YES people watching everything. YES votes in the wrong pile are just not going to happen.

    Keep calm people!

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  76. Do we know what Yougov just predicted in any specific constituency?
    It would be interesting to compare that to the first actual results.

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  77. Yougov sample was only 1800 according to the guy on BBC Scotland just now. That is nothing!

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  78. Douglas Alexander and Nick Robinson sounding very happy on Radio 4.

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  79. The Herald just tweeted breaking news of allegations of voter fraud in Glasgow. People turning up at PS to be told they'd already voted.

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  80. Police investigating possible electoral fraud in Glasgow.

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  81. I'm seeing images in Sky News of Yes votes in No piles, allegations of voter fraud in Glasgow.

    Sorry, it's game over, looking too fishy...even if we had actually won on the day, it seems the establishment have done a couple of fixes just in case.

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  82. Can we trust the postal votes??????

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  83. Voting fraud in Glasgow being reported by Sky and BBC.

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  84. Yes Dundee have tweeted that ballots haven't been counted and split into Yes and No in that photo. Ballots just all been unfolded and stacked for counting.

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  85. 54% Yes rumoured in Glasgow, if this is true it wouldn't be good enough...

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  86. How many celebs TV persona would turn out if Wales/Northern Ireland wanted out. What has Scotland got that Westminster is so frightened of losing.

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  87. Apparently No is ahead on the Hebrides, this is looking worse by the minute.

    I think the YouGov poll might be spot on.

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  88. Anyone else very worried about the consequences of a no vote?

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  89. Briefcase wankers! Always knew your blog was a stream of irrelevant shite.

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  90. There will be a HUGE row over new powers

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  91. There will be no powers...even the current offer of 'Devolite' is going to be voted down by Tory MPs.

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  92. Yep, Tory MPs have already said they will vote down any new powers for Scotland. This was known before the vote though, so people can't have voted no believing Scotland would be given new powers...

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  93. Looks like Yes is taking a beating. Faith in humanity restored!

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  94. clackmannanshire 54-46 for no

    there might be a row over powers but the three leaders promised them in the full glare of the worlds media - no get out. A few tory mps might go all ukip and end their careers as they lose to the replacement tories. all others will be placated by more powers doesnt equal more money line.

    next time try to not demonise tories/ english or have the socialist worker types scaring the normals, you'll probably win.

    ps i vote lib dem

    saynotoyesmen signing out.

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  95. We'll get cuts diguised as tax raising powers and we'll be forgotten about.

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  96. What a waste of potential. We could have been great.

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  97. and oh yeah also get a leader who's only answer isn't "scaremongering" every time someone points out they're assuming things that aren't in their power to decide (currency, eu, border controls etc). That one word REALLY grated.

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  98. Go on then expat.....

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