Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Yes vote increases to 48% in awesome Opinium offering

New Opinium poll :

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 48% (+1)
No 52% (-1)

Remember that Opinium weight by 2010 recalled vote - a procedure that no other firm uses and that decreases the reported Yes vote.

New Survation and ICM polls are also out tonight - full analysis of all three polls will appear HERE.

33 comments:

  1. Oh wow! It's starting to look a lot more promising for Yes.

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  2. Are there other poll due this evening?

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  3. @FitzyMan
    Why? ICM had the exact same figures, and a bigger swing to Yes (if we measure it against the last comparable poll).

    @Billyfife
    Survation at 10. Someone a couple of threads back said it had leaked, but I'm not sure what the source for that is.

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  4. If we are genuinely in margin of error territory, how well or how accurately do any or all of the main pollsters reflect (weight for) new to register and / or those who don't normally vote?

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  5. @Keaton

    I figured Optimum's more conservative methodology made its figures more promising than the ICM poll.

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  6. Unless survation is the same, I think folk got mixed up with opinium

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  7. http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/politics/referendum-news/icm-director-boon-admits-a-polling-waterloo-is-possible.25336542


    Anon, the pollsters do not have a clue.

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  8. James, I'm very concerned that people here don't seem to be concerned enough.

    Levels of concern are definitely now at a two week high out in the real world, but not reflected on this thread.

    Professor Poultice is contradicting what you are saying and is tweeting that currently concern is is several percentage points above previous levels of concern.

    Please reassure me, for I'm very concerned.

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  9. Folks- we should be careful about using polls as a predictive tool- their errors are huge and unknowable.

    On the other hand, the actual votes counted on Thursday evening will be subject to 0% error (hopefully!)

    Be careful, look for large shifts over the past few weeks and don't worry about 1 or 2% here and there- its just noise.

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  10. On that ICM Poll, apples to apples is comparing Mid August to Mid September.

    This idea of taking out undecideds is rubbish and I say that from American political experience. Undecideds are up for grabs in particular based on GOTV.

    YES has gone from 36% to 41%, up 5%.

    NO has gone from 48% to 45%, down 3%.

    DK has gone from 16% to 14%, down 2%.

    What does that tell us so far?

    Without Operation Fear, YES would have had this in the bag already. Operation Fear stopped the bleeding of BT.

    Essentially, YES is drawing 100% of the undecideds and slowly chipping away at NO.

    I now understand the purpose of Operation Fear and that was to stop the bleeding, nothing more. Guess what it worked. But it has done nothing to gain votes for NO.

    Essentially, through GOTV or otherwise, YES needs to get 2/3 of the undecided vote. That is not insurmountable at all.

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  11. IF there was a consistant pattern of polls showing NO at 50% with undecideds then and only then would be this "over."

    Neither side has reached 50% in any poll.

    On Friday morning the pollsters will announce that the undecideds broke one way or another.

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  12. "awesome Opinium offering"

    You got there!

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  13. "awesome Opinium offering"

    You got there!

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  14. I'd agree George, whenever the gap between the sides is much less than the DKs, I don't see that poll as being powerful in the predictive sense

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  15. A plethora of different methodologies producing very similar results. Something is not quite right because only one methodolgy can be correct but they all can be wrong.

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  16. Is I true poster don't like polling ppl that do not have a history of voting. Excluding first time voters?

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  17. Survation has Yes on 48%

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  18. Leak was right, then. All polls tonight agree.

    I note the Daily Mail is calling this a 1-point swing to Yes based on their last Survation (which may be fair enough).

    However, I believe it's a 4-point swing on the last Survation chronologically, which was commissioned by BT. That looks like something of an outlier now.

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  19. People, you have got to stop stripping out the undecideds, otherwise the numbers are NOT meaningful and will not explain what is happening.

    Survation poll, what happened in only three days?

    YES went from 42% to 44%, up 2%

    NO went from 49% to 48%, down 1%.

    DK, went from 9% to 8%, down 1%.

    So what does that tell us?

    A SEVEN PERCENT GAP was cut to FOUR PERCENT in three days!!!

    It appears that DK are breaking to YES.

    As I have been saying, its now a tie game. YES was going to lose based on polling a few months ago. Its now a tie game.

    IF everything I have read and heard about the ground game and GOTV for YES and the SNP is true, then YES will win Friday morning.

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  20. Tie. Turnout takes it now.

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  21. Agree that turnout will be the deciding factor

    Most of the polls are suffering from polling politically active campaigners. The holyrood intention to vote is the giveaway for this in my opinion

    SNP was 10% ahead at 50% turnout in 2011. Survation has SNP 10% ahead at a 70% turnout.

    If Survation have SNP 10% ahead at a 70% turnout what is the lead at 50%? In my opinion lower turnout will increase the SNP lead as less Labour and other voters turn out. So in effect survation are saying the SNP have massively increased their lead for Holyrood (I would expect SNP to be in front but not massively increasing)

    This gives two possibilities

    1. people are lying about voting when they didn't

    2. Survation have too many previous voter in its poll.

    If its point 1 the polls are out if its point 2 they have no idea what the non-voters will do

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  22. If you lose - and I accept that it is still in the balance - it is due to the fact that you have zero credibility on the currency.

    Your leader is a man who claimed in 1999 that sterling was a 'millstone around Scotland's neck,' and who backed the disastrous Euro, which has caused misery around Europe, but who now says with a straight face that Scotland has to adopt the pound.

    He and YES have ZERO xredibility on the currency

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  23. Anon @ 10:43 you have zero credibility on the ability to spell credibility. Anyway how are you tonight Kezia?

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  24. Anon @ 10:43 you have zero credibility on the ability to spell credibility. Anyway how are you tonight Kezia?

    You are so embarassed about the currency issue that you have to focus on a typo!

    The man who leads your campaign called sterling a 'millstone around Scotland's neck' now demands a sterling currency union!

    EPIC FAIL!

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  25. "Your leader"

    Give us a break eh, you really don't wanna start throwing stones in the enormous glass house that is the moral or professional credibility of the people at the top of the relative camps.

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  26. I believe the euro has performed considerably better than the nose diving pound. We will use the pound for a short period of time until our newly independent state has found it's feet.

    The question on the ballot paper is not what currency but what capital city do you wish to govern.

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  27. The question on the ballot paper is not what currency but what capital city do you wish to govern

    If you get the currency union - a big if - then your monetary policy will be decied by the Bank of England in London!

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  28. "Your leader"

    Give us a break eh, you really don't wanna start throwing stones in the enormous glass house that is the moral or professional credibility of the people at the top of the relative camps

    So what is the option?

    (1) The Euro - a disaster
    (2) The Pound - your monetary policy is decided by the Bank of England in London. What sort of independence?
    (3) A Scottish currency - if it is viable, why is it not being promised?

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  29. Annon has been posting about 'Our Leader' on a couple of threads.

    I think it might indeed be Fifi La Bonbon?

    Or perhaps,

    Lord drunk as a newt Foulkes?

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  30. Annon has been posting about 'Our Leader' on a couple of threads.

    I think it might indeed be Fifi La Bonbon?

    Or perhaps,

    Lord drunk as a newt Foulkes?

    Oh dear! You really can't answer the substantive point, can you?

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  31. The weightings CHOSEN by the managers of these polls is crucial to the outcome. For example, in a poll result of Y 50% N 50%, ie 500 N 500 Y, a change made in the weighting of results anywhere in the poll which removes 20 people from eg N, changes the result to 480 N and 500 Y and N 49% Y 51%.

    In DHeil today there is a piece by one of the pollsters bemoaning the fact that they might ALL be wrong due to the reasons I have stated many times before here, the most notable being the huge new non-polled population who haven't voted before, younger voters not responding to phone polls, et al.

    Turning to canvassing results, Rentoul is reporting "what someone told him". Well fuck me, that is really credible! Did he have a dog as well? It seems to me that the body language and demeanor of the two parties vav canvassing returns is revealing. YES happy NO glum.

    Also our OZZIE friend is on record as saying that YES canvassing shows 54% 46%.
    Murdoch may not have a dog but he more credible than Rentoul's "someone told me".

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