Saturday, September 13, 2014

Yes secure second-highest ever showing in a telephone poll - and it was commissioned by the No campaign

New Survation telephone poll commissioned by the No campaign -

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 46.5%
No 53.5%

That's by quite some distance the second-highest ever Yes vote in a telephone poll, only beaten by yesterday's ICM poll.

This is the first time "Better Together" have ever released straightforward voting intention figures from one of their private polls, and it's fascinating that they've chosen to do it with a result that even a couple of weeks ago would have been regarded as extremely bad and worrying for them.  It's probably an indication that they were concerned that the polling narrative was completely running away from them yesterday.

Fascinating too that they chose Survation - have they detected something in that firm's methodology that will work in their favour?  We know that Survation still don't weight by country of birth - the evidence is mixed as to whether that's quite such an issue in phone polls, but even the sample for yesterday's ICM poll over-represented English-born people slightly.

One obvious possibility we shouldn't discount is that BT have used their vast resources to commission several private polls from different companies, and have simply published the worst one for Yes (ie. 'publication bias').  Today's figures are, of course, well within the margin of error of a 49% Yes vote - exactly the same as yesterday's poll.

Further analysis of all of today's four polls, plus a Poll of Polls update, will appear HERE.

132 comments:

  1. http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Better-Together-Voting-Intention-Tables.pdf

    Yes missed out being rounded to 47% by the tiniest fraction.

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  2. Calum, could you let me know what the figures are down to one decimal place, and I'll update the post? I'm on my mobile and the typeface is too small to read.

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  3. Yes: 41% No: 47%

    Excluding DKs Yes: 46.5% No: 53.5%

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  4. I'm being reactionary I know, but I can't help feeling gutted at this, telephone poll or not. It seems the fear factor is having an effect.

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    Replies
    1. Don't pay any attention to this poll friends of mine have voted yes already and told them they were voting no

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    2. Don't panic, they phoned me and I lied!

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  5. Getting a bit bored of these polls now. Roll on Friday morning!!

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  6. A survation telephone poll....assume they have severely upweighted the youths again.

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  7. I sadly agree with Anonymous....Fear Factors are always aimed at and used to influence and intimate the more gullible members of society!

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  8. another poll also due out tonight?

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  9. What about BT. Claiming a 20% lead in the postal exit poll.Surely they don't think we are that daft!

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  10. I'm very worried that this is the beginning of the end for the yes campaign, it's terrible news, I just know deep down now that no have won. We might as well not bother voting at all now, in fact I think I'll just stay at home now that no have won for certain. We might as well just give up folks, seriously!

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  11. I agree, I'm giving up, think I might even vote no now to be honest. I suggest you all do the same.

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  12. I agree Really Worried. I've been out on those streets night in and night out and still the No lead holds. We peaked too early.

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  13. Don't let the concern trolls get you down, folks. That is what they are paid to do. :-)

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  14. even at a 1,000 people a shot no-one I know has been asked to take part in a poll and none of us are your witless missing million types. Best I've had is leaflets through the door - if both sides are coming round during the day they're only chatting to the retired and unemployed.

    anyways, 112 hours till polls open :-)

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  15. DOOMED, WE'RE ALL DOOMED!!

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  16. Don't be such a defeatist! All the work on the ground does not disappear in one wee poll or one week of fearmongering. Stiffen up and keep going till 10pm Thursday night. Depressing our spirit is exactly what hey are aiming for.

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  17. Oh, God. Now we have to distinguish between the No campaign-sponsored concern trolls who post here, and the parodies of No campaign-sponsored concern trolls!

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  18. Yes, good idea, anonymous, now that I have decided to vote no because the no campaign are clearly certain to win, I feel a real sense of relief, it's a great feeling to know that I will definitely be on the winning side!

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  19. DKs lean towards yes (Yes 27% No: 22%)

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  20. Once again, far too many people voted in 2011 in the sample than in the population as a whole. Only 224 (unweighted: 229) did not vote when the figure should be closer to half.

    That could be good for Yes as many people who have noted voted before will be voting on the 18th.

    16-24s are back to a more reasonable Yes % at 44% Yes.

    25-34 have a lower Yes score then 16-24s.

    65+ quite low Yes at only 28%.

    South Scotland only 26% Yes.

    Only 27% of Labour voters are Yes.

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  21. Yep, we're finished, doomed I tell ye, DOOMED! All that fantastic YES activity on the streets was just imagination. I advise the YES campaign to GIVE UP NOW and save themselves more grief!!

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  22. Seems Labour won the 2011 election according to survation landline.

    Funny that.

    Why so much Trouble getting women to answer? Yougov had the same issue. ICM a bit too.

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  23. Question for someone:

    Survation's sample here says includes 30% who say they 'did not vote' in last Holyrood elections. Wasn't the election turnout in 2011 nearer 50, in which case aren't Survation under-representing this group in the sample (they actually down weighted respondents who said they didn't vote). I must be missing something. What is it?

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  24. It's obvious that all the No trolls today are sponsored ones, James.
    The true believers are touring the streets of Embra today.

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  25. Obviously BT rigged this...I'm sure James will get to the bottom of why this is not bad for us...give him a chance to see the figures people !

    Chris D

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  26. Expect an increase in traffic, James. The Guardian liveblog's given you a mention! (at 3.14pm)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/scottish-independence-blog/live/2014/sep/13/scottish-independence-referendum-campaign-live

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  27. I see someone has addressed my point above. This poll also has the Union ten points ahead in Glasgow (which given demographics obv has greater influence on overall result. No ahead ten points in Glasgow? *Seem* right to...anyone?

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  28. Twitter Kreminology suggests that maybe the polls to come may not be brilliant for Yes either. Could (hopefully) be wrong though!

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  29. Hahahahaha. Hahahahaha. Hahahahahaha. So full of No trolls. Hahahahahaha.

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  30. What polls are still to come? Any tonight? Wasn't expecting the Survation...

    Chris D

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  31. This poll didn't sample more than 20% of the population (those without landlines), accuracy will be a problem I suspect :)

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  32. The tables say that the poll was landline/mobile.

    The biggest difference between this and ICM is that no have a big lead among the 2011 non voters when in ICM and TNS the split was more or less even.

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  33. Panelbase for the Sunday Times and Opinium for someone...(Sunday Post maybe?)

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  34. Apropos of sod all, I was flicking through the wee blue book. They seem to have trouble distinguishing agreements from assets don't they? Apparently the UK EU rebate is an 'asset' and will be shared with Scotland :-D

    That's right, they're not even arguing scotland should get the same rebate with the EU, they're saying money the UK pays in and gets a rebate on, some of that rebate has to go to scotland according to the wee blue book. It's like a divorcee arguing her ex has to reimburse them if they use a 10% off voucher at pizza hut. :-) Is the rest of it as full of holes?

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  35. @Blasketcase It's for the Observer.

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  36. Wonder why Murdoch's lot have gone back to PB? Better result?

    Chris D

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  37. This 3pm Survation poll came a bit left-field and wasn't expected - Opinium and Panelbase were. Perhaps something could be read into that...?

    Thanks Calum Findlay wasn't sure who it was for.

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  38. Panelbase for sunday times and opinium for the observer

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  39. The rebate makes a difference to the amount of money paid and received. It is therefore very much an asset and must be counted as such in any post vote divisions.

    You know that Blair so why not just stop lying in public?

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  40. "Twitter Kreminology suggests that maybe the polls to come may not be brilliant for Yes either. Could (hopefully) be wrong though!"

    Any specifics here. Can't see any chat about the other polls (apart from saying they're coming) on the #indyref poll hashtag.

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  41. I reckon Panelbase will go 52 y 48 n...last one was an outlier.

    Chris D

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  42. Opinion will be meaningless as there's nothing to compare it to.

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  43. https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/510776583263883265

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/510770109447942144

    Straws in the wind perhaps.....just perhaps

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  44. it's not an "asset" though, it's an "agreement" to pay less money in because we take less out through CAP etc.

    Simply put, assets are things you can sell. Bridges, embassies, oil, bars of gold. We can't sell the rebate.

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  45. So from that last survation poll, we're down 1 to 46 and they are up 1 to 54.

    Have Opinium been used before to gauge the Indyef polls? Can't recall seeing them.

    This Survation one is a bit out of left-field.

    Also, it being released now. I have no idea and just guessing, but if they release it now are they waiting on better news in the other polls? And trying to paint a picture and under no scruinty of the media of a "growing lead"

    I gues we'll find out soon.

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  46. Think it's clear Murdoch is for Yes so will publish a good poll in ST and Sun....can't wait. :)

    Chris D

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  47. " Anonymous Kevin said...So from that last survation poll, we're down 1 to 46 and they are up 1 to 54. "

    The difference excluding DKs is actually 7% not 8%. The rounding is adding an extra 1%

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  48. You sure, ChrisD?

    Clicked on Smithson's Tweet posted by Blasketcase and Euan McColm seems to suggest from "what he has heard" it'll be bad for Yes.

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  49. @Kevin

    Could just be as likely that they think other polls will be bad and are trying to "get ahead" of them with their own poll?

    Who know - let's see.

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  50. Kevin

    Smithson likes to bluff he knows stuff. Murdoch would lose face after last weekend..can't see that happening...gonna be good I'm sure

    Chris D

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  51. Agree, Calum.

    We'll soon find out.

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  52. @Callum

    Surely not. Best tactic would be for BT to hold back their own poll and get the bad ones (from their point of view) out of the way first.

    This is just perplexing as it is depressing. I'm watching the incredible scenes from Glasgow, Inverness and elsewhere right now and contrasting it with the polls apparently slipping for us. What on earth is going on?

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  53. I'd imagine BT are absolutely shitting it, as if they have been on a diet of vindaloo's all week.

    Even if their poll was spot on I personally would be ecstatic given the last few days we have had. The full arsenal of the UK state and MSM has been thrown at us, with shells and mortars exploding all around us, and yet the best they can do is knock us back one point.

    I'll take polls within the margin of error come Thursday because then factors which favour us can come into play, such a higher and differential turnout, the known stats about the way don't knows tend to vote.

    Indeed James, I think this is the absolutely crucial detail in the last few days. Has anyone done any analysis on what the last polls tell us about the way DK's are likely to split. Excluding DK's at this stage is of limited value really and doesn't tell us all we need to know. We need to use all the available evidence to decide how DK's are likely to lean and factor this into the predictions.

    I still have a lot of faith in Derek Bateman's "f***-it" factor on the final day!

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  54. I agree that taking heed of Smithson is a mug's game, but what Euan McColm tweeted may be a different matter. We'll find out soon enough.

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  55. "This is just perplexing as it is depressing. I'm watching the incredible scenes from Glasgow, Inverness and elsewhere right now and contrasting it with the polls apparently slipping for us"

    Slipping? ICM had us up 4 points just yesterday. This poll has us "down" on last (online) poll for Survation by about, what, half a percent.

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  56. Remember last week everyone remembers the first poll out (yes) and no-one remembers the second (no) same night. BY are trying to get their good one out first before the good stuff for yes later today.

    Chris D

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  57. McColm is guessing. Murdoch will launch Sun for Yes on a good poll.

    Chris D

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  58. If that were the case wouldn't Murdoch be dropping hints by now?

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  59. Chris: do you have a scrap of evidence for this?

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  60. "This is just perplexing as it is depressing. I'm watching the incredible scenes from Glasgow, Inverness and elsewhere right now and contrasting it with the polls apparently slipping for us"

    What was that? Can't see it on his feed.

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  61. Chris, calm down. You're just building yourself up for a potential disappointment. McColm is probably spinning, but that doesn't mean that what he is saying is completely baseless.

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  62. Keaton

    The Sun? Been criticizing BY so obviously yes. Murdoch flying in so must be to press the button.

    Chris D

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  63. Hi James

    You've been telling us not to expect too much for the last few polls...then bang each ones been a cracker...I know you have to err on the cautious side but it's gonna be good. MCColm is a viper.

    Chris D

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  64. Joanne Bonnar ‏@STVJoanne 36m

    Rupert Murdoch tells @STVNews that the Sun newspaper is considering backing a Yes vote. #indyref #ScotDecides

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  65. I suspect we're going to get all the bad press that comes from Murdoch being seen to flirt with Yes, without actually getting the benefit of the Sun's endorsement!

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  66. See! It's got massive influence...big poll to kick it off hence Panelbase switch. It's happening!!!

    Chris D

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  67. Panelbase is currently one of the least favourable pollsters for Yes.

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  68. I admire your optimism, ChrisD, but is it not better to sit tight than predict a Yes lead in these Panelbase?

    Rather than being gloom if it deed doesn't come to anything or worse.

    All the best and we sure can win!

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  69. Only the last couple...always been the most realistic til then.

    Chris D

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  70. So much negativity...we're way ahead you know that!

    Chris D

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  71. I expect a poll to say Yes has dropped to 39% shortly.
    FFS folks, it's the British State we are taking on here!
    Forget all the 'normal' rules of polling.
    We shall see the final result of the real poll on Friday morning.

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  72. Dunno about 39%, but anyone who can use Twitter knows Panelbase is not going to show a swing to Yes!

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  73. If survation and ICM had randomly phoned 1000 people and discovered the SNP had won 2011 by a comfortable margin, I'd be very concerned about these polls. Same if TNS chapped 1000 doors and found the same.

    Instead, Survation find Labour won and ICM/TNS find a rather smaller win for the SNP than actually happened.

    If I was BT I'd be slightly nervous about this. Why such a high refusal to be polled rate?

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  74. James,

    Just wanted to say you've been doing fantastic work here, not just the analysis (of course!) but the willingness to engage humanly (sometimes understandably angry, but always engaging) with the other side here - whether they are out in the open Nos or concern trolls.

    THIS is what makes it so worth it to be on the Yes side of history - we're engaging on the ground, online, everywhere, by taking seriously those who doubt and disagree, and then having to distinguish between the wind up merchants and the genuine.

    Either way we've completely won the campaign and - whatever way the vote goes on Thursday - Yes will be at over 60% by January, and I'm pretty certain we'll win on Thursday given our experience of 1997, of 2003, of 2011, and given that when push comes to shove these years, it’s not falling back into fear and hanging onto the skirts of the status quo that happens, the status quo is getting the boot all over the world.

    Not getting back from working with communities in Africa until Wednesday and maybe out of internet range til then so just wanted to say thanks to you and also Callum, Chalks, Alastair, Juteman, Scottish Skier and all the other genuine folk on this site, including of course the inspiring Mick Pork!

    Cheers

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  75. 39% right... they're on the run...shut scared of being nationalised...Sillars gave them both barrels.

    Chris D

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  76. Justin

    What good is 60% in January...too late. As it happens I'm sure we have that and more now!

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  77. Vastly amused to see any talk of gloom and doom for the Yes camapaign. I can only conclude anyone making statements like that haven't been anywhere near the ground campaign.

    Today was incredible. Let me be crystal clear the Yes campaign are utterly annihilating the No campaign on the ground. It's not even close.

    I'll be back out campaigning shortly but, rest assured, as the hysterical shrieking and scaremongering for No reaches ever more laughable levels it only signifies just how terrified they are and just little faith they themselves have that it's in the bag for them.

    This even before the massive grassroots Yes campaign mobilises it's GOTV operation and all those voters who Yes worked tirelessly to register have their say.

    Those listening to the out of touch westminster bubble media simply do not have the faintest idea what is happening on the ground.

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  78. Forget about the opinion poll companies and look at what's happening on the ground.

    The Stirches area in Hawick canvassing

    Yes 59% No 21% DK 20%

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  79. Strange blog on which to make the statement "forget about the opinion poll companies" lol

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  80. Nothing in this world more pathetic than a troll pretending to be a 'Yes' campaigner, telling us he/she has 'given up'.
    What do you hope to gain from this you childish twats?
    It's a poll commissioned by BT with god knows what preambles and tricksy questions. Away and lie on your ribs.

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  81. Also: The question was "...if the vote was today" while the other pollsters do not use this part. Wonder if that affects the outcome at all.

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  82. Well said David

    They are vipers, traitors and quislings..Sillars is right...there will be reckoning post yes...we won't forget who was for no.

    Sillars and Salmond are true Scottish hero's.

    Chris D

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  83. Think we are so close the if the vote was today differential is negated.

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  84. After the Yes vote, I hope it will be possible to find out how this polling has been done. Is there a group of respondents that are always polled to give the desired result?
    Is the same group of a couple of thousand folk being repeatedly polled?
    I still think it will be 60-65% Yes on the day.

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  85. Juteman

    We can pass a law forcing them to release exactly who voted what...no hiding place.

    Chris D

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  86. Oh and just to reinforce a point scotish_skier made recently and one we both made long before that...

    Families, friends, workmates ALL know Yes supporters so the absolute nonsense and smearing of the massive and diverse grass-roots Yes campaign simply will not work. The scottish public knows perfectly well the westminster bubble twits are lying through their teeth about Yes supporters. Ordinary scots up and down the country know the truth, be in no doubt about that. Given that the scottish public know they are being lied to over that you can be certain all the other absurd claims and hysterical scaremongering by the out of touch westminster bubble media are beginning to sound about as credible as the westminster media's claims of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq were.

    To hammer home that point home this is an extraordinary (and absolutely 100% correct) indictment.

    AngusBMacNeilMP ‏@AngusMacNeilMP 20h

    "Not since Iraq have I seen BBC News working at propaganda strength like this." Paul Mason Channel 4 @paulmasonnews http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2014/09/former-newsnight-hack-slams-beebs-referendum-propaganda/ …


    The Yes shops and stalls on the street are being engulfed by a hugely positive carnival atmosphere while the contrast with the orange order dinosaurs and bigots could not be more stark.

    No matter what desperate lies you hear from the westminster bubble media, Yes supporters can be extraordinarily proud of one of the most remarkable, inspiring and engaging campaigns ever seen.

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  87. @ Mick Pork - "Not since Iraq have I seen BBC News working at propaganda strength like this." Paul Mason Channel 4

    One trick the BBC website uses is the heavy use of UK-wide comment sections, where the sheer number of southern voices hugely outweighs any Scottish opinion.

    There are no separate 'Have your Say' pages on independence, exclusively in the Scotland section.

    We all know some people are influenced by a 'crowd mentality' so to present such unbalanced opinion to Scottish readers is a blatant attempt to influence the vote.

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  88. On doing street stall and canvassing the results of the polls don't seem to come up, the issues are usually fairly specific.
    Though they may be in the back of peoples minds but the towns I've canvassed have been Yes.
    So I just go by my experience.

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  89. Well said Mick, Glasgow was electric today. I overheard lots of conversations that were a mix of "this is really reassuring" and "so proud of the city", just a hugely positive buzz in the air.

    There was deliberate provocation by a OO type with the UJ on a stick but we just followed him about the stair at the Concert Hall with our signs and flags. We were all singing the imperial tune from Star Wars :) he left.

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  90. Yet more Twitter Kremlinology! A link to this Telegraph article by Matthew D'Ancona for tomorrow - 13 Sep 2014 - stating that ICM have a poll where Yes lead by 8 points...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11092495/Whatever-happens-nothing-will-ever-be-the-same-again.html

    What's this?

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  91. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11092495/Whatever-happens-nothing-will-ever-be-the-same-again.html

    Torygraph article that implies ICM have a poll with Yes 8 point lead. Probably a mistake on author's part...

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  92. @Callum
    He's referring to yesterday's ICM. Just got it wrong.

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  93. It's the Torygraph, expectation management and all that. Will believe it when I see it (the actual poll that is).

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  94. What do you expect from the Torygraph...eejits

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  95. Unless it is the ICM bit that's the mistake...

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  96. Maybe it's yesterday's ICM including don't knows?

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  97. Can't remember who was asking on a previous thread but just came across this table which estimates what time each region will declare results at on the 19th...

    http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/scotland_ref_2014_by_time.php

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  98. Funny mistake to make considering, famously, only one poll has us in front - there is a chance he has access to polls we don't...But yes, I agree, most likely a mistake.

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  99. Is it first past the post with number of regions won or total vote?

    Chris D

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  100. "ICM online poll for the S Telegraph has YES 8% ahead - the biggest seen from any pollster. Yesterday ICM phone poll had NO 2% ahead"

    - Mike Smithson's Twitter. Dunno what his source is but I presume it's different than the Telegraph.

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  101. MCcolm just tweeted tiny sample about ICM in Torygraph so probably not a proper poll

    Chris D

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  102. Eh? If there was really a poll with a Yes lead of 8%, surely we'd've heard more about it?

    Also, the article doesn't even say what the lead is - just that it's "similar" to the Survation lead for No.

    I'm pretty sure this is just an embarrassing cock-up by D'Ancona.

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  103. New tweet from Smithson: Apparently those stats *are* from the Telegraph article.

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  104. Smithson can't read, then.

    "The Survation poll this weekend put Unionists eight points ahead of the Yes campaign. But an ICM poll, which shows support for independence leading by a similar margin, cannot, and will not, be ignored. Cameron is right to warn the Scots that the leap from the precipice is not a bungee jump."

    Doesn't even imply Yes have an 8% lead.

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  105. McColm reckons it's from a UK wide poll so not reliable.

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  106. Still...yes 8 points ahead...good poll...Still holding out for Murdoch's Panelbase...he didn't fly in for nothing!

    Chris D

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  107. Mike's now posted that paragraph from the article on Twitter. On the strength of apparently only that, he's posted a pb.com article with a graph showing Yes on 54%. What the hell is he smoking?

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  108. It looks like it is right. Sample size smaller (705), but not tiny by any stretch of the imagination:-

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/icm-put-yes-ahead-perhaps/

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  109. Oopsie. Seems the poll is real (ish). Apologies to Smithson!

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  110. Keaton

    Sounds like it's true then!

    Result!!!!

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  111. Yes, can't complain about that. What's the margin of error on a poll of 705?

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  112. Who cares about margin of error...eight points lead...we're doing it!!!!!

    Chris D

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  113. An 8 point lead for Yes. Wow!

    Is this true.

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  114. Smithson is such a buffoon. Even leaving aside the fact that it's only a subsample, he made three claims of fact in his tweet, none of which were supported by his "source" - a) that it was an online poll, b) that the lead was 8, and c) that it was for the Telegraph. If he's right about any of that, it'll just be by luck.

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  115. Now we know why BT released their internal poll.

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  116. James - Curtice has confirmed all of that. I assume Smithson was aware of this, so why he kept quoting that totally ambiguous paragraph from D'Ancona is a mystery.

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  117. James...are you saying this isn't an 8 point lead??

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  118. Exciting. Except Betfair hasnt moved an inch. Am i missing something?

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  119. Also, James: doesn't a "subsample" have to be taken from a larger poll, so not properly weighted etc? Curtice doesn't say that's the case here, so I assume it's a full, weighted poll, just with a smaller sample than usual.

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  120. opinium has 53-47 lead for no

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  121. Because implies about 80% likelihood of it being No ROFL...wouldn't take any notice of bookies!

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  122. ICM small poll seemingly very unreliable according to experts on twitter.Opinium just released 53-47 No pretty much in line with Survation earlier.Panelbase for the Times 9.30

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  123. Surely Opinium doesn't really count as its not done it before?

    Chris D

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  124. Robert, West LothianSeptember 13, 2014 at 8:06 PM

    Someone on Curtice's Blog BTL comments suggesting a sub-sample of that size has possibly a margin of error of less than 4%.

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  125. need to ask James

    Opinium
    45% yes
    49% No
    6% DK

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  126. Anyone know the last time Opinium did a poll and the results?

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  127. Just to explain my slightly odd comment above, I wrote it quite a bit earlier than the time-stamp suggests, when we were still taking Euan McColm's word for it that the ICM poll was a subsample. I attempted to post it on my mobile, but I was in a place with a weak signal, and it didn't end up making it through until quite a bit later.

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