Thursday, September 11, 2014

Yes campaign are just 2% from victory in remarkable YouGov poll

It was probably always inevitable that there would be some reversion to the mean from YouGov after the firm showed an almost unbelievable 12% swing over the space of a month, but the Yes campaign will take enormous heart from this, their second-highest ever showing from a once firmly No-friendly pollster - higher even than in the YouGov poll just over a week ago that set this campaign alight.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 48% (-3)
No 52% (+3)

From the moment that Survation published their poll yesterday showing only a very tiny swing to Yes, it always seemed likely that there hadn't been any kind of bandwagon effect for the Yes campaign since the weekend - hardly surprising given the mind-boggling onslaught they've had to endure over the last few days from the entire London establishment, and especially the London media.  But the big remaining question was - had Yes gone backwards, or had they retained their big gains?  There is now strong evidence pointing to the latter, and it is coming from two different pollsters.  Survation showed Yes holding firm at an all-time high of 47%, while the variation between the last three YouGov polls (of between 47% and 51% for Yes) is also entirely consistent with a relatively steady position, masked by the absolutely normal 'noise' that is caused by the 3% margin of error.  It therefore seems that the voters who have recently been won over to the Yes side are sticking with the Yes side, in spite of the onslaught.  The best evidence of that is YouGov's fieldwork dates - this poll didn't even finish until earlier today, and started only on Tuesday.

I've no idea what the private polling and collated canvassing results on both sides are showing, but certainly from the perspective of anyone who just follows this campaign from the published polls, there would have been good reason to wonder if the No campaign were going to achieve a big swing in this poll.  Throughout this year, Survation have consistently reported a much higher Yes vote than YouGov, and in some ways it scarcely seemed credible that Survation could show Yes holding steady at 47% without that being followed by Yes slipping below 47% in the subsequent YouGov poll.  OK, we've seen convergence, but surely even after convergence you'd expect to see the normal pecking order of Yes-friendly and No-friendly firms remain in place to a more limited degree?  It appears not.  Two rogue polls in a row from YouGov was just about imaginable, but a third is not - so we can now say it's official.  YouGov are no longer a No-friendly pollster, and whether that's in spite of or because of the "Kellner Correction" is something we can only speculate on for now.  Indeed, both TNS and YouGov are as of this moment more Yes-friendly than Survation, so it seems that all the old certainties have gone as we contemplate the crucial final few days.

Obviously Yes campaigners will react to the closeness of the polls by stepping up (even further) their efforts to win over undecideds and soft No voters - and that is absolutely the right thing to do, because we don't know exactly how many more people we need.  But as of tonight (and I may well revise this opinion when we get the ICM poll tomorrow) we have at last reached the position where it is just about possible that even if the pollsters have their methodology absolutely right, Yes could be in the lead already.  Across all firms, the last five polls have reported Yes votes of 48%, 47%, 51%, 48% and 50%.  Bearing in mind the margin of error, that means there is a genuine chance that Yes are ahead, although the balance of odds remain substantially in favour of No retaining a very slender advantage.

But things become more interesting still when you take into account the concerns that pollsters themselves (such as Martin Boon) have openly expressed about the limited confidence they can have in the accuracy of their methodology, due to the unusual nature of the contest.  If we therefore assume that the real world margin of error is significantly higher than 3%, then the chances that Yes are already in the lead immediately look much more substantial.

In the Poll of Polls below, you'll see that the Yes vote has slipped back slightly - that's simply because I only use one poll per firm, and therefore this new YouGov poll has replaced the one that had Yes in a slight lead.  But John Curtice's Poll of Polls has Yes remaining at the heady heights of 48%, and that's partly because his methodology takes into account all of the last three YouGov polls.  In the past, I would have said that approach is a weakness, because in a campaign which has been distinguished by different firms diverging from each other markedly, you really have to ensure that the weight given to each firm remains constant over time.  However, now that some of the pollsters have converged, the one big strength of the Curtice approach may be making itself felt - ie. that it uses only the most recent polls, and the results therefore aren't artificially 'held back' by the inclusion of polls from several weeks ago.  If it can be assumed that there is no remaining bias for Yes or No in the methodology of any pollster, but that there was until very recently, then for the first time the Curtice Poll of Polls may be the best guide to the state of play and to the trends.  It remains to be seen if that's the case, though, because it's still an open question whether ICM and Ipsos-Mori (and indeed Opinium, who are apparently about to publish their first referendum poll) will join the general pattern of convergence.

I haven't been closely following the mainstream media reporting of the Survation poll, so I was shocked (although I shouldn't have been) to see a comment suggesting that many journalists made a bogus apples-and-oranges comparison between that poll and the weekend YouGov poll, in order to wrongly claim that the Yes vote had slipped.  If that's true, we really must demand consistency - tonight's poll should therefore be compared to yesterday's Survation poll, and not to the previous YouGov poll.  That means that Yes should be reported as being 1% up, and No should be reported as being 1% down.

They really can't have it both ways, no matter how much they'd like to.

* * *

REQUIRED SWINGS

Swing required for 1 out of 6 pollsters to show Yes ahead or level : 0.5%

Swing required for 2 out of 6 pollsters to show Yes ahead or level : 2.0%

Swing required for 3 out of 6 pollsters to show Yes ahead or level : 2.5%

Swing required for 4 out of 6 pollsters to show Yes ahead or level : 3.0%

Swing required for 5 out of 6 pollsters to show Yes ahead or level : 4.5%

Swing required for 6 out of 6 pollsters to show Yes ahead or level : 7.0%

* * *

SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

MEAN AVERAGE (excluding Don't Knows) :

Yes 46.3% (-0.7)
No 53.7% (+0.7)

MEAN AVERAGE (not excluding Don't Knows) :

Yes 41.2% (-0.3)
No 47.7% (+0.9)

MEDIAN AVERAGE (excluding Don't Knows) :

Yes 47.0% (-0.2)
No 53.0% (+0.2)

(The Poll of Polls is based on a rolling average of the most recent poll from each of the pollsters that have been active in the referendum campaign since September 2013, and that adhere to British Polling Council rules. At present, there are six - YouGov, TNS-BMRB, Survation, Panelbase, Ipsos-Mori and ICM. Whenever a new poll is published, it replaces the last poll from the same company in the sample. Changes in the Poll of Polls are generally glacial in nature due to the fact that only a small portion of the sample is updated each time.)

*  *  *

When I heard that George Galloway was taking part in the TV debate at the Hydro, I naturally assumed that the BBC had gone over Better Together's heads to invite him.  When it was announced at the start of the programme that Better Together had actually nominated him and he was specifically there on their behalf, my jaw dropped to the floor.  OK, it must have been some kind of tactical gambit to appeal to traditional Labour voters, but what kind of message do they think it sends out to put forward the leader of the Scottish Tories, and a far-left politician who was expelled from Labour years ago?  Oh well, at least they've got the anti-German vote sewn up now.

201 comments:

  1. Does this mean Yes could still potentially be ahead?

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  2. Yes, it's within the margin of error.

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  3. Doesn't the now consistent numbers across companies suggest these numbers look right?

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  4. TNS show 50% Yes, YouGov show 47-51% Yes in their three recent polls, Survation show 47% Yes. Even assuming that everyone has their methodology right, I don't think it's possible to definitively conclude from those numbers who is currently ahead.

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  5. Sounds like a statistical tie to me.

    xabi

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  6. Still neck and neck.

    with huge turnout, could it all come down to conversations in the queues at polling stations?

    I'll be encouraging the ones next to me that we can do it !!

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  7. From those 4 polls, Yes average is 49.

    I'll certainly take 48%. TBH, I was fearing a lot worse and us back down 5-8%.

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  8. What about the newly registered ?

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  9. The pollsters seem to be reaching an unprecedented level of agreement. Wonder why this has happened so suddenly, without any change of methodology, when they used to be so far apart.

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  10. The absurd "Kellner Correction" is still in effect I presume? :-)

    Great days campaigning away from the westminster bubble media shrieking.

    The No campaign would hardly be panicking so openly with their hilariously hysterical scaremongering if they were so confident of those figures, would they?

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  11. Opinium are going to enter the fray on Saturday and then on the 17th.

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  12. Apparently this YouGov has 16-24 year olds ahead for No. I call bullshit on that from personal experience campaigning even without the evidence of theBigBigDebate not being able to find to find enough No's to fill their audience. (and asking Yes voters to fill that gap)

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  13. Yes, can we tell anything about whether the new voters are being accurately picked up by the polls? Has any commentary been published by any of the companies about how they have factored in the expected much higher turnout into their results?

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  14. "Swivel eyed loons."


    The public school twit Farage and his swivel eyed loons aren't embarrassing the No campaign till tomorrow. :-)

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  15. Last few polls have all had the Yes vote within 4% of each other. With biggest gap between Yes and NO being -6% to +2. If ICM are in the same region I think the polling companies are now effectively saying 'we don't which way this will go so better if we all say the same thing and be equally wrong than stick our neck out either way'

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  16. Not a bad result considering the huge gain Yes had made in the past couple of polls.


    The 6 or 7% of the total electorate (if based on the same %here in Dundee) that were registered in the last few months will be pivotal to the end result. They will not feature in these polls that are going by past vote. I believe all the groups that registered these people have kept records for the GOTV on the 18th.

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  17. Happy with this. Fieldwork done during height of Project Fear and we still get 48. I think some of the nonsense in the last few days will backfire. Let's see.

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  18. At this point, a good storm in Edinburgh on the 18th could change the result.

    Xabi

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  19. Ok let's not kid ourselves this was good for us...need to hang in there... Feels better than this despite the polls.

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  20. "Ok let's not kid ourselves this was good for us."

    I'm sorry, but that's a really silly comment. I don't see how anyone who has followed YouGov polls over the last three (or even seven) years could possibly conclude that this is anything other than a phenomenally good poll for Yes.

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  21. Not a good poll? This poll was conducted when the entire edifice of the British state and media was launched against the Yes movement. One BT adviser called it 'shock and awe' (disgusting analogy, of course) There was a *real* possibility that this poll could have had our support tumbling 5 or 6 points as people get spooked. Instead we move within the MOE.

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  22. I think after the week we've had (and no doubt the No campaign will crow massively about this tomorrow) the fact that YG's yes vote held up as well as it did is a miinor miracle. All the polls of late seem to agree on a means position of Yes 48%, more or less. A Statistical tie. Just means that the result (assuming the BPC pollsters are accurate) that it's not going to be a runaway for anyone.

    On another note, where the hell is that ICM poll?

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  23. Anonymous: The ICM poll stopped interviewing today, it will be out tomorrow at some point.

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  24. I've no idea whether to even expect an ICM poll tonight - the exact timing seemed a bit vague.

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  25. I mean it about the weather.

    www.unc.edu/~abassi/Research/weather-mood-voting.pdf

    Xabi

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  26. @Anon
    It's the second-best YouGov poll for Yes of all time.

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  27. Maybe but we should be AHEAD in these polls....48% however high is short of the winning post...nearly there is no consolation to us at this stage. That's why it's not a good poll for us. Turd polishing isn't helping really. I want this as much as you do.

    Feline

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  28. "Turd polishing"? For the love of God, man, this is getting dafter and dafter. Carry on in this vein and I'll start to think you're trolling for the other side.

    48% Yes with YOUGOV? If you had told me that was even possible two weeks ago, I'm not sure I'd have believed you.

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  29. Not a man and worked too hard for this...don't give me the troll stuff. We know some are going to chicken out in the voting booth which is why we have to be AHEAD not thereabouts or much better than we were.

    Feline

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  30. Anon

    We've hit by a jetstream of bullship by the British establishment these past few days. Try turning on your tv to see an absolute tidalwave of negativity towards Yes.

    Yet, we're only 3% away from 51-49 and that is within the margin of error.

    I was expecting far worse, to be honest. I feared we would be back to a 10 point gap.

    We go again though. Join your local Yes group if not already, let's get out there all of us and do our bit no matter how little time we have.

    With a week to go and our average being 49 from the last 4 polls. We just need another wee dunt up the park, and some steady nerves from the wavering.

    Absolutley this is still on, folks.

    To use a football analogy, we lost 4-1 away in the first leg, it's now the 2nd, we are 2-0 up! We only need another goal whilst BT if they get an away goal, we are out.

    It's the last 15 mins now.

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  31. "Not a man and worked too hard for this...don't give me the troll stuff."

    Then stop making daft comments that make you sound indistinguishable from a No troll. This is a fantastic poll for Yes - really, truly fantastic. If we don't claim it for what it is, we're practically surrendering to the No spin machine.

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  32. The out of touch twits and westminster bubble media still can't grasp how crucial the enormous and diverse grassroots campaign for Yes is.

    LeanneWood ‏@LeanneWood 1h

    Llongyfarchiadau / congratulations @YesScotland, @Radical_Indy on voter registration push. 97% of people now registered to vote - #indyref



    I know for a FACT which side put the most massive and overwhelming effort into registering as many people as possible and it sure as fuck wasn't the No campaign.

    Even up to the midnight deadline we had cars and minibuses being arranged to help transport people to the appropriate location. That wasn't just the west coast of scotland either, that kind of effort was in evidence almost everywhere.

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  33. It's great because it was so bad before? Why are we not polling 55%+ it's going to be no consolation on the day if we get 48%...we won't be saying but look how much the gap closed. We need passion here and a clear lead not self-congratulations on being second.

    Feline

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  34. Problem is James, youre not putting it in context.

    Have just arrived home from Germany for a weekend to help out and see the old dear, and have been absolutely dumbstruck about the selective editing and bullshit Ive just seen on the BBC.

    In the context of that, this poll is fine.

    If it was any other poll, and -3 drop isnt fantastic (not taking into account the gains we´ve made previously)

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  35. Same goes for you here Feline, a little bit of context wouldnt hurt!!

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  36. What we need are people who are not assisting the No spin machine. The No campaign will claim this is a good poll for them - IT IS NOT. For pity's sake let's not do their work for them.

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  37. It is a great poll for Yes indeed. I'm feeling a bit uneasy for the lack of movement in pollsters like Panelbase, though. Also, I agree with Feline that experience shows that people seem to get scared in the end, when they see that Yes is possible. What I call the "Quebec Lesson". I hope there is really a missing million. And that on the 18th there is a terrible storm on the Borders and on Edinburgh.

    Xabi

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  38. Its a middling to poor poll for them. After the hell which has been unleashed the last couple of days, I would have expected an 8 point drop!

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  39. Remember we only need 50.1% to win.

    I reckon everyone is underestimating the mood on the day - the chance to make history!

    That's why the NO campaign is going haywire with the fear factor. And it will work for some.

    But no-one really wants to vote no because of threats and fear, and feel miserable afterwards..

    We have a chance to join the WORLD as a normal country, and the excitement on the day will be infectious !!

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  40. So we can only agree with everything you say? I've worked so hard for yes...can't express an opinion apparently

    Feline

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  41. "In the context of that, this poll is fine.

    If it was any other poll, and -3 drop isnt fantastic (not taking into account the gains we´ve made previously)"


    I sometimes feel like I'm banging my head against a brick wall with this blog. If people still can't understand that a net 9% swing over the space of little over a month is something that was beyond our wildest dreams, then I'm not sure what more I can do to explain.

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  42. "So we can only agree with everything you say? I've worked so hard for yes...can't express an opinion apparently"

    No, what you object to is me answering back on my own blog. Sorry, but that's an utterly unreasonable position. If you want to see what the closing down of debate looks like, try Better Nation or Political Betting. I censor absolutely nobody, as you ought to have realised from the fact that I haven't deleted your comments, in spite of thinking they are ridiculous.

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  43. James, I'm not getting at you but if I fail my driving test on 9 points and then fail by 1 point I've got so much better but still failed. We need 55+ polls and best we've managed is a 51 which has now slipped back. Not much for rejoicing..but we plough on

    Feline

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  44. James, I really think you should support people that come here to share their worries, instead of telling them their opinions are ridiculous.

    Feline, you are within winning distance. There are six days still to go and current media narrative will end up tiring voters. Just a bit of good campaigning and you can help people overcome their fears.

    Xabi

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  45. Ok well if everyone thinks I'm ridiculous and have no valid points I will say no more.

    Feline

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  46. By the way. Just so you can see how serious media behave in other countries.

    elpais.com/hemeroteca/elpais/portadas/2014/09/12/

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  47. We get enough ridicule from no...don't need it from you James...expected better

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  48. "James, I really think you should support people that come here to share their worries, instead of telling them their opinions are ridiculous."

    I'm sorry, but I fully intend to continue pointing out that ridiculous comments are ridiculous. I'm working all the hours God sends as well - none of us has a monopoly on that. I've probably had one decent night's sleep in the last five.

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  49. Feline, I do not think your worries are ridiculous. I'm just asking you not to fall in despair.

    Xabi

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  50. "We get enough ridicule from no...don't need it from you James...expected better"

    Then try elsewhere - if you can get past the moderation regimes elsewhere.

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  51. This is a good result for Yes. Bearing in mind it's still Yougov, margin of error, plus the amount of wild incoming clusterbombs during the time of the fieldwork on this. Keep calm and let the No campaign continue to hog all the hysteria they desire. The long game is paying off for yes. The "out of reach" section of newly registered first time participants in the democratic process are loitering with bright & hopeful intent, probably not to endorse the status quo, I imagine.

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  52. Re: one of Feline's points - why do we need 55% plus in the polls?

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  53. C'mon James, cut people some slack here...you don't have a monopoly on opinion. If you don't want anyone to comment why have comments?

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  54. James, you are an intelligent man and you're doing a fantastic job here. I think you just need to understand that for some people a reasonable explanation of a poll is not enough at this point. Feline needs reinforcement and empathy to go out tomorrow and swing some undecideds.

    Xabi

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  55. "Re: one of Feline's points - why do we need 55% plus in the polls?"

    If she's genuine, she's arguing that Yes are guaranteed to slip back at the last moment - and by a whopping 5%, it seems.

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  56. We need polls ahead because of the fall back that will occur when people vote...expect a percentage to bottle it like in other referenda. I agree with Feline on that.

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  57. Well, James. That theory is shared by people like Nate Silver. It is not ridiculous, even if you have serious reasons to think that it will not apply to Scotland.

    Xabi

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  58. To be fair YouGov shows a shift of a whopping 20% in a v short time. 5% fall just as feasible?

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  59. Keep the faith, we're still seeing people moving to yes every day.

    Even my old mum, a life long tory voter who was 100% no 6 months ago was out delivering The Wee Blue Book to several of her friends this afternoon.

    A work colleague who was no on Monday is now trying to persuade his wife to vote yes (Wee Blue Book again).

    There's plenty opportunities to keep increasing they yes vote, keep up the hard work folks, nearly there.

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  60. "C'mon James, cut people some slack here...you don't have a monopoly on opinion. If you don't want anyone to comment why have comments?"

    Which is another bloody stupid comment in the light of what I've already said. I will repeat - I CENSOR NO-ONE. I am not James Mackenzie, I am not Mike Smithson. Apart from excessive swearing or anything that might get me into legal difficulty, I don't delete comments AT ALL. What I cannot guarantee, however, is that I won't answer back to those comments - and that is what you appear to object to.

    Ludicrous.

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  61. There is NO way you can rely on the magnitude of these polls all you can rely on is direction of travel. The non-voters that will now vote won't be weighed properly. It's a unique event so models are guesswork really. They could easily be well our in magnitude of the vote.

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  62. Can't say I think it's ridiculous either James. Sorry. We expected to be AHEAD in July, then August. Now we're not even AHEAD.

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  63. Seeing the overall trend, I believe that Yes has serious chances of winning this by a clear margin. But please, have empathy for people that may be having a bad time by a good poll that still shows Yes behind.

    Xabi

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  64. James, calm down...we know you work hard and we appreciate it :)

    But you are overly aggressive at times if someone doesn't quite agree with you.

    Chill man!

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  65. "Can't say I think it's ridiculous either James. Sorry. We expected to be AHEAD in July, then August. Now we're not even AHEAD."

    This is just ludicrous. I have no idea if you're genuine, or if you're a No troll, but the idea that a 9% net swing to Yes with YouGov over the space of five weeks is somehow bad news for us...that's just so mind-blowingly daft that it's difficult to know where to start. If you had been making these comments about the Survation poll yesterday I might have had more sympathy.

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  66. Re yes "dropping back" on the day.

    That is just guessing - there's nothing to that. With the hatred of the political elite and attitude against "incumbency" across the entire Western world just now, it's just as plausible that we'll gain some votes from folk just wanting to kick the establishment - especially if they think Yes won't win. The idea that we're going to fall back 5 points from stable polling is pure astrology.

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  67. Hi guys, it's your friendly neighbourhood no voter :-)

    On a serious note, 97% voter registration? How many of those are double registrations then, people in two or more areas etc? People from outwith scotland succeeding in doing what alan cumming tried to do, get an address in scotland for the day? Also, there's nearly 800,000 postal votes. Not saying which side this is likely to be advantageous to (we'll always suspect the opposing side to our own), but is there a hint of "vote early, vote often" creeping into this?

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  68. "But you are overly aggressive at times if someone doesn't quite agree with you."

    Would you prefer I took the Better Nation approach and deleted her comments? For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not going to do that, but I don't think it's unreasonable to answer back on my own blog.

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  69. James...enough with the "ridiculous" and "ludicrous" already...don't spoil your cred please...that's what they want :/

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  70. "In the context of that, this poll is fine.

    If it was any other poll, and -3 drop isnt fantastic (not taking into account the gains we´ve made previously)

    I sometimes feel like I'm banging my head against a brick wall with this blog. If people still can't understand that a net 9% swing over the space of little over a month is something that was beyond our wildest dreams, then I'm not sure what more I can do to explain".

    This is getting a little silly now James. You quite rightly point out that people should read what youve written, but then you hardly do the same for others.

    I pointed out that if you dont take into account the previous gains, then a -3 rating is poor in anyones book. If you do take the previous gains into account, then the net 9% swing towards if fine, especially given the last couple of days.

    I have to say youre coming across a little arrogant today on this comments section.

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  71. Yes mate but you're not just answering back...you're trashing someone who questioned...

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  72. "James...enough with the "ridiculous" and "ludicrous" already...don't spoil your cred please...that's what they want :/"

    I don't know whether you're a No troll, but at the very least you're a wind-up merchant. If you want me to stop responding, I suggest you stop commenting.

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  73. @Callum

    Nate Silver pointed out a preference for status quo in this kind of Yes/No referenda. In fact, there are some recent examples of this. You might very well be right, but it is not an absurd worry. You should be reinforcing this people.

    As a matter of fact, I think it is better for Yes to be behind in the polls, at least until a few days before the vote.

    Peolpe like Feline (and James) will win this for us.

    Xabi

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  74. Also people will vote Yes at the last minute not No. No one will feel good about basically admitting they are too wee, too poor and too stupid. The poll was during the extreme negativity period so the fact statistically there is no change is good. The swing back to Yes will start as people realise they are being manipulated. The collusion between business. Government and BBC on the scares becoming apparent, knowing they are calling it shock and awe. The Star Wars with the Labour MPs. Galloway tonight and Farage tomorrow. Leads to BT looking like a very nasty bunch. If we are within a few points going into Thursday and get a 75+ turnout we will win.

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  75. It's my blog and I'll cry if I want to? C'mon James...difficult times don't spoil things :/

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  76. Already seeing this shit turning in on itself. People get scared then they turn round and get angry that they are being threatened.

    You do not treat people this way. I am happy with yougov numbers. Around now is when skiers national id takes over. The end is in sight. Of the Union.

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  77. YouGov. I'll take that with a week to go. A big push this weekend should take us over the line.

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  78. "If you do take the previous gains into account, then the net 9% swing towards if fine, especially given the last couple of days."

    No, you're shifting the goalposts now. You said the drop was only good in the context of the onslaught. The point I'm making is that in all likelihood there has been no drop AT ALL - what we're looking at bears all the hallmarks of margin of error noise.

    As for the "arrogant" insult, I repeat - other blogs are available if you don't like it here. I am not going to be browbeaten by anyone into not responding to ridiculous comments on my own blog.

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  79. Note that we still have the Orange Order march before us. :)

    Xabi

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  80. "It's my blog and I'll cry if I want to? C'mon James...difficult times don't spoil things :/"

    Yup, you're a No troll. I should have trusted my first instinct.

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  81. Status quo and nates theory is bollocks in our situation. You take things on a case by case basis.

    Westminster are not trusted. They are exposing themselves to a now unprecedented audience. Scotland is regarded by vast majority as a country. Fear and the cringe is holding us back. Its entirely different to other nate examples.

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  82. Re Xabi

    I'm not saying this won't happen. I'm saying we don't know. The classic case for this claim, Quebec, reflects radically different circumstances and political situation. The claim that we need to be at 55 because we're definitely going to lose 5 points (about 200,000 votes) from people "bottling it" in the polling both is just a silly thing to say.

    Look, I'd prefer Yes was decisively ahead in the polls. And I'm not exactly jumping through hoops at polls show the other side in the lead. We all want this to happen so much. We don't help it though by setting absurdly high standards and then gnashing our teeth when it doesn't happen. Like James says, we are now in the margin of error, and that is an extraordinary position for us to be in.

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  83. Ridiculous in your opinion James. Sad that you seem to take the viewpoint that we can only bolster what YOU say...that's not the Yes that I've been working with. Perhaps you should sleep on it...not your best day!!

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  84. Funny, I dont see a drop of 3% as noise, and I dont think you particularly do either. Let me quote your previous headline written about 2 hours ago:

    "Significant swing to Yes in new ComRes poll...."

    And yes, a 3% rise in the Yes vote. Noise? Apparently now its significant!

    As for your 2nd point - you ARE coming across as arrogant. No-one is trying to browbeat you, but you should really tone it down a little.

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  85. "As for your 2nd point - you ARE coming across as arrogant. No-one is trying to browbeat you, but you should really tone it down a little."

    All I can suggest is that you go elsewhere. You're very welcome to continue posting here, but you're not welcome to tell me what I can and can't say. I will continue to respond if you do carry on in this vein, so please bear that in mind if you don't like the message you're hearing from me.

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  86. I guess we're all secretly a bit disappointed but let's not start tearing each other apart...that's what they want! Keep going! :)

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  87. "I guess we're all secretly a bit disappointed"

    I'm not. I was expecting something between about 45% and 47%.

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  88. Dude you're getting a bit paranoid...relax James

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  89. James has already proven he s extremely patient and courteous considering the sheer volume of spamming he has had to endure for months from the Britnat trolls, bigots and racists from 'Stormfront Lite' and elsewhere.

    If he wants me to tone down the swearing he just has to say the word.

    Likewise if you have a problem with him disagreeing with 'why isn't No in the lead?' (Which, I have to point out was used by several amusing trolls long before now) then perhaps the somewhat overblown 'offense' to James replies needs to be toned way, way down or it's hardly going to be taken very seriously.

    For those who somehow still don't understand the 97% registration or the 2011 election pattern do a little research. (and look up the "Kellner Correction" while you are at it)

    What we know for a fact is that all those out of touch westminster bubble pundits, and so called polling experts, who kept trying to pretend there was little to no change or swing to Yes have had to eat their words as it is now blatantly obvious how wrong they were.

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  90. Same message to you, Anon. If you don't like the responses from me, drop the wind-up routine or go elsewhere.

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  91. 45 and 47??? Not bottling it are you James? ;)

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  92. Does the Kellner correction mean the 51 lead wasn't valid? :O

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  93. Respond by calling everyone No trolls or idiots if you like. You´ll just turn people (YES campaigners I might add) against you. But thats entirely your choice.

    As for my first point, Im baffled how you can call 1 poll showing a 3% increase as a "significant" shift, as opposed to another poll a couple of hours later showing a 3% decrease as only "noise".

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  94. Kick the trolls out James. The last thing we need are people here doing the devil's work for the NO people. And even IF they are not trolls, which I seriously doubt, we don't need dismal Jimmies or Jeanies moaning away here. And why are they all anonymous?

    All the nonsense about people pulling back at the last minute is cancelled by some who will say on the day FUCK it let's do it.

    And as I have repeatedly said on this site the BPC Polls are only one set of instruments measuring opinion and they have NEVER been very close to an ACTUAL result in an important Scottish vote. The actual politicians don't take much notice of BPC polls, prefering to rely on canvassing returns. And to me the YES campaign seem the happier of the two camps based on those returns.

    And very importantly in this vote are the thousands who have registered to vote for the first time. They didn't do that to vote NO and their views have not been tapped by the BPC polls.

    One last thing to note is that in the 1997 poll for the "Including TAX powers" question, the nearest example to a full Indy question, ICM's last poll 10 days before the vote suggested YES was 48%. In the event the question was won by 63.5%.


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  95. Mick, can you elaborate a little more on what difference you feel the 97% registration rate might make to the published polling figures?

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  96. James, you mentioned "open debate" in one of your posts today...think that's all that this...don't think anyone's trying to wind you up, honestly :)

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  97. BVB1909 : So you're not going elsewhere, and yet you're still trying to lecture me. What is the point of this?

    I would deal with your specific question (and there's a very straightforward answer), but I'm not sure you're in listening mode.

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  98. @Mick, James

    My only point is that we want people to come here to get informed and move to Yes. If an undecided read the comments, and saw the author of the blog telling commenters who voice dissenting (and perhaps clearly wrong) opinions that their points of view are ridiculous or that they should go elsewhere, perhaps we may lose him/her for good.

    Also some people post their doubts looking for reinforcement.

    Just keep the right mood, please.

    Xabi

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  99. The always amusing Anons will have to try far harder than that.

    LOL

    It's utterly laughably to suggest a couple of posters on here overreacting can possibly compare to the Tsunami of omnipanic and hysteria from the comical and out of touch No campaign.

    Few better examples than this as the 10% pay rise westminster MPs march into town to 'save' little Ed (from himself presumably) and the No campaign.



    Amy ‏@scifisunsets 3h

    HOWLING. Oh Glasgow, please never ever change. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiMXuEmqAHA … #empirestrikesback #indyref




    You sir, have won all the internets! :D

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  100. I read all the polling websites, even your old haunt. Generally, however, I find this one of the better ones, but tonight things seem to be (how to put it) a little frayed.....

    Im all ears by the way regarding the difference between a 3% increase being "significant", and a 3% decrease being "noise" :-)

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  101. To be fair James you were in that video saying the first post-debate poll was unreliable because of the sample size but you were all over the result of the second with a similar size...we're all fallible mate...you included...don't alienate fellow yes for the sake of a little humility...hmm

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  102. Xabi, if I was worried about undecided voters reading the comments section, the first thing I would so is mass-delete the garbage comments we've been inundated with from No trolls (genuine No trolls, beyond all shadow of doubt) for months. My first principle is free speech, not winning every vote at all costs.

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  103. "To be fair James you were in that video saying the first post-debate poll was unreliable because of the sample size but you were all over the result of the second with a similar size...we're all fallible mate...you included...don't alienate fellow yes for the sake of a little humility...hmm"

    Who are you, and what game are you playing? Why are you posting anonymously?

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  104. Let's calm down all of us.

    We can all agree or disagree that's the nature of this.

    A WEEK is a long time in politics. Look at how much Yes has clawed in YouGov and TNS over the week.

    Can anyone seriously expect us to be climbing polls after these past 3 days? How so? We've been hammered by the media, big business and the establishment.

    Let's relax and not blame each other. We have a week to go.

    All of us should go sleep and wake up tomorrow fresh with the weekend news that Farage is coming, the OO are coming and we'll have more polls to look forward to.

    Scotland is a different place - was it not shown in 97 that the polls were out and on the day the Yes vote increased. I'm not saying that'll happen next Thursday, but everyone chill out.

    I'd imagine 97% at least of us on this site are Yes voters. Do you know the best thing we could do without bickering over polls on the net? Is get off our bums and help our local Yes movement out, if we are not already out there doing it.

    Whatever time you have to help. An hour, a day, a week, half an hour - let's go do something and help us win this.

    Let's go!

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  105. This is no game for us James...been working far too hard for yes...hearts and minds...help us don't rubbish us.

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  106. Anonymous no lurker here :0)

    Good blog by the way. I like it - very informative.

    About the polls, I think 50-45-5 is a good place for no to be just now. Of course, I would have preferred a no lead of 30 points but its not happening - and realistically was never going to. I suspect that, on the day, some yes voters will switch to no and most undecideds will go for no. If you're undecided then you feel the case hasn't been made (for either side). But on the day this will favour the status quo, as people opt for the only thing they have known all their lives - the union.

    If no can keep a five point lead, with undecideds included, for the next week, I think it will be enough to secure a no win. I base this on gut feeling, not an in depth knowledge of polling - though I have followed many political campaigns over the years, with a been eye on the polls. This one reminds me of an American presidential election. Hopefully we'll avoid the 2000 Al Gore v Bush scenario.

    Possible tripping up points for no: UKIP, the Orange Walk. Wish to God they'd just keep out of it.

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  107. Definite trolling from pretend wetnats.

    Given the outrageous propaganda campaign by the entire media (one minor newspaper excepted) And the imposition of the Scottish Cringe every second of our lives it is a minor miracle that the polls are even showing a tie.

    Quebec is not and never has been a country. Quebec does not have 1,000 years of history as a country. Quebec is a member of an existing federation. Quebec had a media split between supporting yes and no.

    There is absolutely no similarity between Quebec and Scotland. Enemies of Scotland compare us to them because every single real country given a vote on freedom has voted yes. They also use the same campaign tactics employed by the Canadian federal government. Without fail they are identical.

    But we are not them. This is Scotland. Nate Silver couldn't predict his next shit will smell.

    We have to be at 55% or there's no point even going out to vote is such a transparent piece of BTVNBUKOK bollockery.


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  108. James,

    Other people's comments are irrelevant. I am asking you (the one with credibility) to use your auctoritas.

    Xabi

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  109. "This is no game for us James...been working far too hard for yes...hearts and minds...help us don't rubbish us."

    Who are you, and what is your agenda? Why are you posting anonymously? Stop playing games, and answer the questions.

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  110. In fairness to James, this is his blog, with the utter shite we have to swallow on a daily basis by westminster, my only question is this.

    Why isnt the headline YES INCREASES SHARE IN SPITE OF FULL ARSENAL OF SCARES BEING DEPLOYED

    After all, the media portrayed survation as a decrease from yougov....not reporting the difference in methods between the pollsters.

    So why should we not follow their ignorant bullshit?

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  111. "But on the day this will favour the status quo"

    Certainly didn't happen for the Devolution referendum which some might feel is just a touch more relevant to scotland than Quebec.

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  112. Ok, I've seen the Anon calling me a "pretend wetnat".

    I'm going to bed.

    Best,

    Xabi

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  113. I accept it his blog and due respect to James and his boundless optimism.

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  114. Mind and pick up yer dummy.

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  115. The nauseating trolls should just do one FFS...most of us come here to be reassured by James when things look bad...a job he does really well. Thank you James

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  116. The stuff about people just lumping for the status quo is a hopeless misreading of the situation, not just in Scotland but across the entire Western world. The status quo is absolutely crushing people. The thing that could win it for No is not the 'security' of the status quo (most people *hate* the status quo), but if Yes fails (or is prevented) for making the case for independence clearly enough. If No supporters are hoping that thousands of Scots are saying they'll vote Yes and then scuttle in and vote No, I think they're deluding themselves. If you win, it'll be because Yes has failed to convince people, not people hugging to the 'security' of a bankrupt (financially and politically), rapidly declining state.

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  117. "Im all ears by the way regarding the difference between a 3% increase being "significant", and a 3% decrease being "noise" :-)"

    Are you? Are you really? Because you sure as hell don't sound it.

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  118. It might help us James if you COULD explain it because it does seem a little contradictory?

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  119. Oh come on. Its a serious question which, I think, deserved a bit of a better answer than that.

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  120. It's not "boundless optimism" that has seen James and most of his regulars proven right and the so called polling 'experts' westminster bubble pundits proven 100% wrong.

    This even after the laughable panic hysteria from the No campaign as chalks correctly points out. Nor will that hysterical scaremongering stand up to scrutiny on the ground in the days to come.

    After all, desperate negative scaremongering has been used time and time again for years from Project Fear. Once the initial shrieking has passed Yes just kept right on increasing till we now have a MOE tie from the most No friendly pollster there was. :-)

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  121. "Oh come on. Its a serious question which, I think, deserved a bit of a better answer than that."

    No, it wasn't a serious question. Serious questions are not framed in that goading way. "Deserved a better answer" is meaningless - I didn't answer it at all.

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  122. I know it's improved believe me but we're STILL not AHEAD...does that not worry anyone else? :/

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  123. James it sounds like you're dodging the question...please could you answer it...nicely genuinely please?

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  124. "James it sounds like you're dodging the question...please could you answer it...nicely genuinely please?"

    I'll do that just as soon as you tell us why you are posting anonymously, who you are, and what your agenda is. Deal?

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  125. Oh FFS. There was nothing goading about the question at all! Fair enough if you dont want to answer it. Entirely up to you.

    Maybe someone else might be able to explain the contradiction (if there is one) to me.

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  126. Anonymous no lurker here again.

    Guys, isn't it possible the yougov poll at the weekend was rigged to 'frighten the horses'?

    When yougov were showing no riding high back in the good old days (about four weeks ago), you were all saying "yougov - tory stooges!", and us noers were like "shut up - its a perfectly good polling company!" :0)

    Well, I'm thinking now that there might have been something to that allegation. We would be naive to believe the dark arts aren't being used in this situation.

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  127. Why do you think everyone's got an agenda...you are SO starting to morph into Smithson...simply questions to statements you make that appear contradictory..

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  128. @BVB1909

    A 3% move is on the limit of margin of error. That is why a change of 3% is normally significant. Still, in the case of Yougov there had been a dramatic shift of 12% in a couple of weeks. This was probably caused by some extreme form of sampling variation. That's why James thinks this sudden move back of 3% is probably 'noise' and there has been no actual drop in Yes support.

    Am I right, James?

    I hope we can all now go to bed.

    Xabi

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  129. "There was nothing goading about the question at all!"

    Oh yes, of course. There was nothing remotely goading about : "Im all ears by the way regarding the difference between a 3% increase being "significant", and a 3% decrease being "noise" :-)"

    Yes, re-reading that I can see that the sarcasm was just a figment of my imagination.

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  130. "you are SO starting to morph into Smithson."

    If I was really morphing into Smithson that comment would have been deleted and you'd have been banned for life. So everything's relative.

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  131. "A 3% move is on the limit of margin of error. That is why a change of 3% is normally significant. Still, in the case of Yougov there had been a dramatic shift of 12% in a couple of weeks. This was probably caused by some extreme form of sampling variation. That's why James thinks this sudden move back of 3% is probably 'noise' and there has been no actual drop in Yes support.

    Am I right, James?"


    Absolutely.

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  132. Doubleplus ungood....That would appear to be the only type of language you deluded people understand.

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  133. Oh, and I should add that a 3% shift isn't even on the limit of the margin of error - if the true position is 48%, then you could get anything from 45% to 51%. "The 3% swing in the ComRes poll is significant in the absence of any obvious reason to doubt it" is perhaps the best way of putting it - when you've had a 12% swing in the space of a month you have plenty of reason to doubt the evidence of your eyes, especially when other pollsters aren't corroborating that trend (or not uniformly, anyway).

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  134. "Doubleplus ungood....That would appear to be the only type of language you deluded people understand."

    I'm guessing you were pretending to be a Yes voter about half an hour ago.

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  135. Well, I can only say that youre misinterpreting it then. You say Im not in the listening mode, I say Im all ears. Thats hardly sarcastic. Anyways, not worth arguing about.

    Thanks for the response Xabi - but surely its nearly impossible to say that the ComRes increase of 3% is significant, when there has only been one Borders ComRes poll previously? Even if there were 5 polls all showing the same result, then one could argue that a 3% increase (or decrease) was also purely noise. Regardless, thanks for one possible explanation.

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  136. You've not quite made Smithson yet James....getting there...


    *jokes*

    :)

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  137. I will be interested to see what Opinium's figures show - I suspect they will be similar to Survation/Panelbase.

    As for ICM's poll, the Guardian said on Twitter earlier that the sample would be a mix of landline and mobile. If that's true, this poll should be of a lot of value, and it will be interesting to see how it compares to ICM online, as well as Ipsos and other "real world" pollster TNS.

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  138. And thank you James for your explanation.

    See - that wasnt so hard (now that was a little sarcastic, but the benefit of doubt).

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  139. "but surely its nearly impossible to say that the ComRes increase of 3% is significant, when there has only been one Borders ComRes poll previously?"

    Nope - this is the third.

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  140. "As for ICM's poll, the Guardian said on Twitter earlier that the sample would be a mix of landline and mobile."

    That's very good news, but I'd be interested to know how it's even technically feasible. Are there some mobile numbers that are geographically identifiable, or are they going to phone thousands of people across Britain and just ask "you wouldn't happen to be registered to vote in Scotland, by any chance?"

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  141. Hi James, just t a quick word to say I really enjoy reading your posts, they are very informative as are many of your commenters

    Don't let the concern trolls bother you, they are infantile.

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  142. I'm with Roger...you may be a turd-polisher BUT you are OUR turd-polisher! :)

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  143. "you are SO starting to morph into Smithson"


    REAL stupid to bring PB/'Stormfront Lite' up.

    These are the FACTS about PB that the amusingly out of touch PB tory twits trolling SCOTgoesPOP can't deal with after all.

    Enjoy. :-D

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/political-betting-moderator-screaming.html









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  144. I've "lurked" on this site for a while now and find it interesting to get the real story behind the headline polling figures.

    My take on this, for what its worth is that all we know for definite is that there is everything to play for.

    However, what it will come down to on the day is how a lot of people will jump when facing an empty ballot paper alone in a polling booth. Derek Bateman suggested several months ago that there could be a F***k It Factor where people going to vote as Nos or doubtfuls will say "Feck it I'm voting Yes"

    However people may also jump the other way if they've been affected too much by the scare stories in the media or BT canvassers, etc.

    Other factors may include the weather. My personal view is that a sunny, dry day may engender a feeling of hope and wellbeing that may help yes (although conversely may increase the numbers of older No voters turning up).

    What I am trying to say, as someone who doesn't know much about polls, is that there are several factors that will come into play on polling day which the polling companies can't hope to replicate - so as long as we are within striking distance in the polls and we all put in the work between now and polling day then we can do this.

    KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON :-)

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  145. I worked at the athletes village for 7 months before the commonwealth games started and 9 out of 10 workers were Yes. If this is typical we are heading for a landslide victory.

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  146. If it was going to be a landslide wouldn't the polls have picked if up with only a few days to go? I suspect a narrow win but will admit I'm worried who it will be now.

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  147. Is there a sense in which all increase in turnout is good for yes (missing million type analysis)? Or is there a sense that there is an 'optimal window' (say 80-85%) for Yes, any increase over which would benefit No? (for example because of an enthusiasm gap?)

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  148. I think the higher the turnout the more the No votes...lower turnout would indicate they think it's in the bag so less urgency to get out...it's those we need to worry about-we know yes will all turn out.

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  149. Turnout is going to be massive, so I think we can forget about differential turnout helping us by anything more than a tiny fraction. But if the newly registered voters turn out to be mostly Yes, that's a different matter.

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  150. Unfortunately I think previously complacent No voters will now have been galvanized into getting to the polls instead of sitting on their derrieres!

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  151. I agree that Yes voters in general will be more highly motivated to turn out than No voters.

    Therefore it will be interesting to see on polling day whether there will be any reports as to the relative turnouts between middle class and working class areas - that may give a very rough early indication of how things are going?

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  152. the pollsters might be converging around 50/50 because they aint got a clue how its gonna pan out, at least that way they can only be "wrong" by 5 or 6% and they will claim a decent outcome when all's said and done.

    Either that or settling at even means they can make a late change the night before and it doesn't look too suss.

    The idea that any of these companies can accurately (say to within a percent or two) reflect the country just now is hilarious. 4.3 million registered voters characterised by 1000 folk and at supposed errors of 3%, aye right. Ask 1000 people what hand they write with and there'd be more than 3% error- we must be looking at 6% at least, but there's no way to tell (how these companies quality assure their data I have no idea!).

    Seems like the polling companies %ages are converging, so becoming more precise (group of values tending to the mean) but thats not to say they are accurate (close to the true value). If there's some systematic error/unrepresentable factor that's common to all of them (i think there probably is) we wont know about that until the 19th. Crucially, the polling companies cannot know whether they are wrong or right today, the 12th of September- and haha, they self regulate too through the BPC, how convenient! Hence the capital that the media is placing on minute shifts in polls that are demonstrably strewn with errors (with error magnitudes that dwarf the shifts) and which are conducted by companies with no real motivation to get the right answer days/weeks before the 18th, well that's pretty misguided.

    Everyone on here could literally think of a number, and if your guess is reasonable, I bet you a tenner you will be closer to the result than at least one of the BPC affiliates. My guess is Yes will win reasonably comfortably, 10% margin or so.

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  153. More cynical people would point out that it allows the vote to be rigged with dodgy postal votes and missing papers to allow a narrow No. They then claim that it must be right as it matches the polls.

    Others may be more trusting of the proven fraudsters of course.

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  154. Just for the mathematical pedants.

    A 3 point increase is BIGGER than a 3 point decrease.

    But everybody knows that. Except for Labour/BTVNOBUKOK and their shopping lists.

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  155. This is your blog James and I know you are loath to ban people, but these 'anonymous' posters all having a pop at your decisions on this comment section has made it unreadable.

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  156. Lots of media trolls posting as ANON

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  157. I think the big question is whether the pollsters' methodology is sufficiently allowing for the huge influx of new voters. You mentioned that it might increase the margin of error. I wonder if it might in fact totally throw the polls off if 2/3 of the voters in the referendum (if it is anywhere near the 92% who have registered) are people who have never voted before or not for many years. I don't see any way that the pollsters could have adjusted their methodology to properly poll for this. I am not saying they haven't tried, just that it doesn't seem possible or practical. Of course, it is possible that they'll vote just like the 'normal' voter population in the same percentages, but I'm not at all sure you can count on that.

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  158. Well, we do have to bear in mind that the pollsters use demographic target numbers derived from the census and similar sources, so in theory they should be getting representative figures regardless of whether a big swathe of newly registered voters are coming into play. But of course theory and practice are two different things.

    There's also the issue of whether people are telling the truth to pollsters.

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  159. No way are the youngsters voting No. My kids and their friends all seem to be YES voters, and the talk amongst all the young folk at work, is about the huge Indy party they will be having next Friday. Very suspect figures.

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  160. Juteman : Only up to a point. You'd always expect some figures buried in the datasets that look a bit odd, due to normal sampling variation. It's only a problem if one particular group has been severely upweighted. I'm sure YouGov will have upweighted their 16-24 year old sample, but I doubt that'll have been by a Survation-type margin.

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  161. What I find staggering is the strength of Yes in the opinion polls, despite the overwhelming scaremongering of the media (some of it replicated by anonymous posters here).

    Judging by 97, by the fact that when push comes to shove these days people kick back at the status quo rather than cling to it, and the clear difference in tone and expectation between the Yes and No camps, I am seriously revising my view of what the vote will be next Thursday.

    I have always said we wouldn't move ahead until the last few weeks (and I didn't mean in the opinion polls I meant in reality) and we would get a narrow Yes win

    But it now looks like it will be a real victory. Just looking at the trolling on this site and you can see the really very sad psychology of the No campaign and why it can only ever lose support rather than gain any.

    Opinion polls are just one indicator, and Yes being anywhere in this kind of range translates as a much stronger victory on the night.

    Well done to everyone for such fantastic work.

    We'll keep it up over this next week, and then we'll make sure our governments stay ours because in a Holyrood voting system that is possible. It is impossible in a Westminster one.

    Which is why this is heading to being such a fantastic result for democracy, not just on the night but for lifetimes to come.

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  162. Regarding the idea of a status quo leaning on polling day, I really don't think that's what will happen. Irvine Welsh made the same point as Bateman, that many no voters may just walk into the polling booth, look at their choices, and decide to go yes. I definitely think this is far more likely than any Yes voters going No.

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  163. PS- Fantastic work as usual James, I always look forward to your updates immensely.

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  164. What a shame that your excellent blog and the normally fascinating discussions which follow it have been ruined by the intervention of concern trolls. The reason we can tell you're concern trolls btw, is because your posts don't reflect the way real Yes supporters and activists actually think. You don't understand us and you can't get our tone right. Keep up the good work, James, you're doing an excellent job.

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  165. Quite simply, this is a great poll for YES. To be on 48% with Yougov a week out in the midst of a total blitz from the establishment is totally amazing and must be putting the fear of death into them.

    The reason we can tell you're concern trolls btw, is because your posts don't reflect the way real Yes supporters and activists actually think.

    Nailed it in one, anon. :)

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  166. Excellent analysis. I believe those people who normally don't vote, but will next week, will swing it for Yes.

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  167. I'm fairly happy to be sitting at 48/49% going into the last week

    BT / UK Gov have played there last hand now and are being hammered for it's conduct

    Yes will have a wave of optimism and energy in the last week that will see us over the line

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  168. "What I find staggering is the strength of Yes in the opinion polls, despite the overwhelming scaremongering of the media (some of it replicated by anonymous posters here). "

    Absolutely, Justin. It's staggering. Just think - 7 more days..and they're gone. Forever.

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  169. Don't give these trolls oxygen ,James, by entering into dialogue with them.They already have an over-inflated sense of their own importance as it is. You're doing a great job. Best wishes from Australia.

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  170. The No campaign seem to have followed the Canada example up until now. At the end of the Quebec campaign, it's reckoned a huge lovebombing campaign swung it for tje No's. I wonder why No have abandoned that tactic and gone for all out fear and scare? I was worried a lovefest could swing it for No, and i'm much happier with the nasty tactics.

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  171. James,

    Thanks for all your efforts on the blog. I'm learning much. I trust your analysis mostly because Ive had my spirits dampened by your good self many times as you've pointed out all the many ways in which an apparently good poll for Yes could actually be nothing of the sort!

    This place has gone mad overnight and it prob wont let up until next week.

    Hang in there.

    A.J.

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  172. Robert, West LothianSeptember 12, 2014 at 10:19 AM

    I'm heartened by this poll as I felt like many others that given the shit-storm of co-ordinated British establishment scare stories these last few days, support for Yes would have fallen a fair bit. However this campaign has never faltered in the face of relentless media and MSM bias (shame on the whole bloody lot of them)and it wont do so now.

    Chin up folks and keep going. The UKOKS never expected US to be in this position a week before polling day and believe you me they are still bricking it despite what their MSM mouthpieces say.

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  173. Is it true support from under 25s has gone from +20 to -6?
    Crazy. How can a change like that be trusted?

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  174. Using a thousand people to work out how 4,200,000 are likely to vote in this very peculiar referendum is a doomed task, no matter how often you repeat the process, and no matter how diligently you attempt to weight the results. The biggest thing about the polls the last week is how they have impacted on confidence, betting and financial markets, and crucially shaped the campaign narratives as they are refracted through the media lens.

    James does a wonderful job here trying to make sense of it all, and right at the end it does add a level of excitement.

    We must be down to the stage now where there are only a few known polls left before the referendum, although I know some are likely to be commissioned relatively late due to the overwhelming interest in what is happening and the desire for up-to-the-minute snapshots of changing opinion.

    Could you do a quick mock up James at some point of what polls are known to be coming between now and next Thursday? That would be very helpful.

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  175. Juteman, it because their internal polling has undecideds leaning to yes. So they ramp up the fear. Their theory is black and white....they are undecided so fair game.

    Whether stems the tide of undecideds who knows. Also, for what its worth, a massive turnout helps us. They want to beat the yes leaners down so on the day they think why bother voting. Any votes that they pick up to no are a bonus.

    This is all designed to make people not vote. Take the day off from work on ref day and get our vote out.

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  176. If it's a doomed task then there's no point analysing them? James gives credence to the polls so should we.

    Chris D

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  177. @Chalks.
    I wonder why they didn't go the whole hog on lovebombing, if that was thought to have swung the Quebec ref? Why ditch the Canada method at this stage?

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  178. James - yes, just to add to what has already been said, keep doing your excellent work and don't let the No trolls get to you! Shows how worried they are.

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  179. Looks to me like a wobble, particularly in terms of women VI, due to lack of respondents.

    The consistent pattern in iref polls is that a low response rate correlates clearly with a higher No vote / lower Yes vote.

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  180. Hi,

    Patrick Wintour, the Guardian journalist who appears to be the one releasing ICM poll figures today, tweeted this earlier:

    "Has one erroneous poll last week led to a panic struck & welcome redrafting of UK unwritten constitution. Imagine if YouGov existed in 1832."

    I don't believe his thoughts make any sense (after all, yesterday's YG poll is within the margin of error of the previous one), but it appears to hint a bad result for Yes with ICM today.

    Xabi

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  181. Depends on whether he's seen the results yet. I don't expect us to be ahead in ICM anyway. As long as it's in the same place as YG/TNS/PB/Survation we'll be doing well.

    Two points though Xabi, yeah I agree with you that anyone getting comfortable with a 48/52 split is insane and two, what redrafting of the unwritten constitution are we talking about?

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  182. My guess is the ICM poll today will be 45/55 or something like that.

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  183. Could mean anything Xabi. Personally I think it sounds just foreboding for the no camp.

    Juteman, they tried lovebombing us, cameron etc. Didnt work, they have realised we find it patronising.

    Stay out of our business...hence why they didnt want the 3 stooges up here. They only have fear to use against us. They know the Scottish pysche, well a fair % of us, do unfortunately listen to that. This referendum has shattered at least 45% of peoples previous thoughts on the union.bbc impartiality and big business.

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  184. http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/12/full-results-times-sun-140911-scottish-referendum/ (new poll)

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/07/full-results-scottish-independence-2nd-5th-septemb/ (previous poll)

    The last poll showed a Yes lead for 16-24 (56-37, rest DK). Now 16-24s are on Yes 44 No 51.

    In other age groups: 25-39 are on 54 Yes now, 53 last week. 40-59 are on 48 Yes, 49 Yes last week. 60+ are 35% Yes, last week 36. 1% differences are likely just noise. Major change is among young.

    There's also been a 3% drop in women supporting independence. Aswell as a few % drops in Labour and SNP Yes support.

    Both YouGov and Survation troubled by inconsistent 16-24 sample.

    That taken into account, the polls are perfectly consistent with Yes being slightly behind (by 1-2%) or 50/50.



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  185. Guardian poll out at 12.30

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  186. ICM/Guardian Poll being released at 12.30 apparently...

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  187. Wow, brought it forward a bit? Possibly bad news for Yes then....

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  188. Yougov poll shows Yes ahead. Media go defconn5. All British guns give full broadside after full broadside against Scotland. 'Fools, xenophobes, racists, businesses will leave, border posts, plagues of locus...'

    Yougov try polling again. Response rate drops markedly across younger age groups and in women. More no people respond than yes.

    Surprising?

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  189. ICM 51 N 49 Y ...still in with a chance guys!!
    But why 17% undecided at this stage?

    Chris D

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  190. ICM/Guardian - YES 49/51 NO

    Don't know about you guys but i was fearing much worse. Pretty happy with that, project shock and awe maybe isn't gaining as much traction as Westminster hoped!

    WE CAN DO THIS!

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  191. Yes: 40% No: 42% DK: 17% Yes: 49% No: 51%

    Great news for yes.

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  192. Chris - High undecided respondents due to poll being conducted by phone i would presume?

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  193. ICM- its a tie on a landline only poll no less. Yes is ahead by a margin on the ground I'd say.

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  194. Fantastic stuff!!

    In other news, Ian Paisley has just died.

    Thoughts on any knock on effect?

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  195. Thanks Wee Trot...bit spooked by the high undecideds in the Survation so I spose this is better.

    Chris D

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  196. Skier, spot on as usual. That is an amazing poll.

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  197. Apologies, but does anyone have a timetable for polls to be released.

    Not sure if I am correct, but

    13-Opnium or someone? Never heard of.
    14 - Panelbae and another Yougov?
    17 - 4 Polls.

    Much obliged,

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