Thursday, September 18, 2014

Want to help win a Yes vote over the next three hours?

Just thought I'd make myself useful by reposting this tweet from Ross Greer -

Still need Yes volunteers at every local campaign base tonight. Head along or call 0141 221 4767 to find out where to go.

63 comments:

  1. Before a troll posts anything;

    From Diarmuid Scully @dscullylimerick regarding the IpsosMORI walkback:

    "quoted on 5-7 Live Rte Radio 1. Given age class and gender divide in polls the variance from turnout likely to be significant"

    https://twitter.com/dscullylimerick/status/512659142696509441

    Retweet, discuss it if you like. I'm very happy with this news.

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  2. Positive end of day news;

    Word from Team YES. Reported from Canada as the UK press does not want to print such info.


    http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2014/09/18/scotland_referendum_canadian_team_sees_yes_win_amid_large_voter_turnout.html?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed


    GLASGOW—A Canadian team of voter-contact experts working with Scotland’s Yes team is forecasting that Scots will vote by as much as 54-46 in favour of independence when the final vote is tallied early on Friday morning.

    “I believe they’re going to win,” said Mike O’Neill of the Canadian voter-targeting firm First Contact, which has been doing data-modelling work with two academics, one of them Canadian, to profile likely Yes and No support in Thursday’s referendum.

    “I feel pretty confident,” O’Neill said.

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  3. "quoted on 5-7 Live Rte Radio 1. Given age class and gender divide in polls the variance from turnout likely to be significant"

    Forgive my ignorance but is this good news for us?

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  4. Just think:

    At this very moment, Scotland is sovereign.

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  5. @Kevin_Maguire
    Senior figure in No campaign predicted they'll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We'll see

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  6. @Anonymouse, If "us" is YES, I say YES!!

    Let me splain. I accept the polls being accurate within the margin of error which means the race is "evenly divided" between the two side. FWIW, this idea of tossing the undecideds to get a two way number is sloppy and misleading.

    I also believe the polls were accurate based on the anticipated makeup of the electorate.

    The problem is that 80% and higher, more men than women MAY have shown up, more ABC1 than C2DE may show up.

    The one single group I am fairly certain has not shown up in greater numbers is old people!! Why? They always vote and have already shown up!!

    IF YES wins today, it will likely have won because C2DE voters who often do not vote, actually voted!!

    So the news is good news. The polls in doing scrap paper calcs, held up from 65% to 80% but at 80% plus you do not know whats under the bonnet.

    I will state right now that some people in the back room at BT are worrying at the moment.

    NO could still very well win, but YES is and remains fully in the race.

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  7. @princezip
    #ScotlandDecides #indeyref

    Latest Exit Polls from #Scotland
    surveyed up until 4:30pm,
    puts No Vote ahead at 58%

    Still close

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  8. Nice one anon!

    Try making your pish a little more believable next time!

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  9. @Anonymous, There are no exit polls for this election. None, nada, zilch, zero....

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  10. I'm not making it up, someone in Twitter called @princezip tweeted it. And a Daily Mirror journalist also tweeted something about a senior person in the No camp saying it'll be 58% for No.

    Just sharing the info in case somebody knew anything.

    I'm in the same thinking as you folks as I never read anything about there being an exit poll...

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  11. As and they are both garbage. Same as telling voters polls had closed early to stop people voting. Desperate stuff indeed and a lot of utter mince.

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  12. Anon u r talking absolute pish. Kevin mcguire at the mirror is mixing, troll twat. Cobbled Together would have NO CHANCE of pulling together any substantive numbers like that UNNOTICED by everything else 6 hours before the polls shut. The only exit evidence we've got to work on so far are reports of a strong Yes in No-friendly Dumfries & G, a temporary alleged leak suggesting Yes will take Edinburgh with nearly 60% in the postal ballot, and a host of folk taking to twitter to say they went No to Yes when faced with the ballot. Does that make you feel good to hear?Or do you still prefer a tweet from the Daily Mudslinger?

    cheers
    james

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  13. Do you think all the BT twonks will be able to stop spouting fear and lies tomorrow?

    Will they go home to their wives with 1,000 yard stares and wake up screaming "no pound!" at 3am?

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  14. There are NO exit polls in the referendum so why am I reading shite that there are?.

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  15. Might be a YouGov one.

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  16. Probably similar to them saying we wont be in the eu

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  17. I'm predicting a substantial amount of No voters have gone Yes today, potentially 2-5% of the No voter population. It's all over social media and from the small amount of canvassing I've done today I'm feeling confident that this is definitely going to be a phenomenon.

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  18. Cos twats having been posting a tweet by another twat, Kevin Maguire Daily Midden journo, that an anon drunken BT "snr source" was predicting 58N-42Y by as early as 4pm today. He's subsequently not responded to the twitter pounding he's being taking 😊. There are NO exit polls. Only guesstimates by campaign officials and few if any have been made public yet. Huge rumours of Yes tsunami in the postal ballot (pre-counted now sealed till 10pm). However that claim is now coming from several sources (anywhere between 60-70%...). Dearie me Blair. You and Rob sitting in a dark corner head in hands yet..?

    cheers
    james

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  19. Anyone have any bad YES news?

    I am doing some advanced twitter searches and everything is good.

    YES voters are happy, ecstatic.

    YES Voters have been getting family, friends and partners to switch NO to YES.

    Turnout is off the chart.

    NO voters, none of them seem happy with their vote.

    GOTV infor is positive.

    Not many on this blog which means they are doing someting important like GOTV.

    I have too much of a good feeling right now!! So good, I am not trusting it.

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  20. No yougov exit poll. There are none. Illegal in this bloody referendum for heaven's sake!!!!

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  21. @FitzyFan1, Thank you for canvassing this day, thank you!!

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  22. The Bateman wrote a blogpost concerning the "Fuck it!" voters some months ago.

    Staring at the ballot paper and having to answer NO to the question should Scotland be an independent country? Most people would say Yes.

    Masses of people who will still vote NO would answer Yes to that question if they had not been terrified by the BBC onslaught of lies.

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  23. George, regarding Ipsos MORI modelling for a turnout over 80%, just seen this tweet from Ben Page at IM in response to the one you posted earlier:

    @benatipsosmori

    @dscullylimerick utter nonsense show me source

    Seem to be a fair few rumours flying about...

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  24. Very high turnouts in the housing schemes of Dundee. Almost like a Yes Carnival in places. Amazed at the high turnout as it has been so wet in Dundee all day.

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  25. YouGov are doing an exit poll of their panel as in "complete when you've voted" but I'm sure they will not release until after polls close. Guess it may come out before midnight as an early indication but wouldn't bet on it being anything like accurate.

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    Replies
    1. Fair enough Bob. But it will tell us nothing about the result as YouGovs panel will have be outmoded by the level of turnout imo.

      cheers
      james

      Delete
  26. Robert, West LothianSeptember 18, 2014 at 9:29 PM

    @Bob
    Surely a poll would be pretty pointless as those that responded Y/N yesterday will hardly have changed their minds in the last 24 hours. If they have what's caused it?

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  27. Well, the word on Twitter is that people have been changing their minds, even in the polling booth and changing to Yes. I actually know one such person so I know it isn't all fantasy.

    But I don't know why YouGov are polling - why do they ever do it? Presumably someone is paying.

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  28. Robert, West LothianSeptember 18, 2014 at 9:41 PM

    Thanks Bob suppose that's a reason but why not just leave it a few hours and get the actual result.

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  29. the emotional rollercoaster continues...punctuated by silly tweets from BlooterTogether bams....
    Is Clackmannanshire gonna be first to declare does anyone know?
    Will be sitting with the 1997 devo vote results to see if I can somehow gauge the likely outcome from that...
    Clacks, where I happen to be from, voted 80% yes in the 97 referendum..6 percent ahead of Scotland as a whole...wonder if we can extrapolate anything in light of that when the results come in...a wee bit maybe....

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  30. This seems plausible and positive;

    Schrodingers EU ‏@NMQ_Edi 4m

    Sky are saying turnout in Dundee is 90% #indyref #yes

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  31. Eilan Sar Highlands is first to declare.1.30am.

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  32. Fog has closed Stornoway airport. Wont declare until alot later now me thinks.

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  33. More possible turnout, any other confirms?

    --

    Marie Broderick ‏@mariebrod 3m

    @GTCost You may just have to eat that fried Mars bar. 97% voter turnout in Glasgow as per Sky News. Has to be Yes majority!

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    Replies
    1. She's wrong - 97% registered to vote.

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  34. Two people I know changed from no to yes. They were staunch no.

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  35. Two people I know changed from no to yes. They were staunch no.

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  36. From the check of the empty ballot boxes to the final little red seal.


    It is done.


    *passes out from exhaustion* ;-)

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  37. I imagine Glasgow will be a large Yes majority?

    Saw above that D&G looks like a Yes - anyone any more info on that?

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    Replies
    1. D&G likely to be No. Yes will be happy to get to 40% there.

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  38. Omg I hope D&G is a yes, would be so proud of our region if it is

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  39. seen some tweets which has an exit poll or something with yes on 51.65%...anyone know about this?

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  40. Scottish Sun poll coming shortly

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  41. If D&G is YES that would be astonishing, but to be honest I will believe it when I see it.

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  42. D&G would be enormous if it went yes!

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  43. Apparently the YouGov exit poll has No at 54%.

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  44. Was talking to the guy running the yes campaign in Newton Stewart in Dumfries and Galloway doing the exit poll. He said he was getting 50-50. Should probably take it with a grain of salt but it sounds good for yes if it's accurate.

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  45. Scottish Sun YouGov #IndyRef prediction: YES 46%, NO 54% - y-g.co/1mjwlQz

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  46. Two people I know changed from no to yes. They were staunch no.

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  47. Disappointed by final yougov result.

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  48. the sample size for that yougov poll makes it just as worthless as the rest of the opinion polls

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  49. Any idea on the sample size?

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  50. Yes you gov saying its not an exit poll so unreliable.

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  51. I think that final poll was based on recontacting the people from their last poll to see how they voted.

    So it was not an exit poll in the purest sense.

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  52. Kellner says he's 99% sure it will be a no. The BT camp are already fairly media heavy and quite happy. Not looking good.

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  53. http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/18/yougov-referendum-prediction/

    1800 and 800 postal voters.

    :-\ not so good at all

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  54. Kellner just stated he is 99% certain of a No vote

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  55. I've done quite a few you gov polls lately, but couldn't be bothered today, far to much to do and they are meaningless now anyway. Maybe other yes voters felt the same, most are having fun out on the streets.

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  56. Kellner saying 99% certain No will win tonight.

    It's not an exit poll, but it's not looking good atm.

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  57. Yougov have no new info other than they have asked same people again after they voted. Of course it's going to show similar poll result as yesterday.

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  58. I have been polled often by YouGov but nothing in the last few weeks

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