Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Scotland stands on the brink of independence tonight as Yes vote surges to 49% in astonishing TELEPHONE poll from formerly No-friendly firm Ipsos-Mori

These are the extraordinary numbers that will be beamed to STV viewers across the country at 6pm...

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 49% (+7)
No 51% (-7)

I don't think it's possible to overstate just how unbelievable a turnaround this represents for Ipsos-Mori, so often the most No-friendly polling firm in this campaign, and indeed very often the most No-friendly by quite some distance.  I vividly recall sitting in a strange location one evening at the start of March (long story) and feeling my heart sink to the floor as I spotted a tweet from Tam Britton about an Ipsos-Mori poll that, entirely counter-intuitively given the trend from other firms, saw the Yes vote fall to just 36%.  After I'd reflected on it for a few hours, my reaction on this blog was : "I think we can now safely say that Yes will not be in the lead with Ipsos-Mori by September.  But the big question is, do they need to be?"  Well, I may be proved right about the first point (there's one more Ipsos-Mori poll to come tomorrow), but it certainly isn't going to be by much.

For my money, this is the most crucial of today's polls from a psychological point of view, simply because of the "Hi, I'm John MacKay" factor.  If STV had been telling their viewers about a race that was close, but which No appeared to be winning, it might have depressed the Yes vote slightly tomorrow.  As it is, the message voters will be getting is that this is practically a coin-toss, and that (fittingly) Scotland's future is in Scotland's hands for the next 24 hours.

Technically, the fieldwork for this poll can be regarded as slightly earlier than both the Panelbase poll we've already seen, and the YouGov poll which is due tonight. because although it started on the same day as the other two (Monday), it finished a day earlier (Tuesday).  So if the YouGov poll turns out to be significantly less good for Yes, there may be speculation over whether YouGov have detected a very late swing that Ipsos-Mori missed, or whether it's just a question of differing methodologies.  If it's the latter, then there's certainly a case to be made for putting more faith in a telephone pollster that doesn't weight by past vote recall at all, thus opting out of the whole minefield of deciding exactly how that should be done.

* * *

SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

MEAN AVERAGE (excluding Don't Knows) :

Yes 48.1% (+0.7)
No 51.9% (-0.7)

MEAN AVERAGE (not excluding Don't Knows) :

Yes 43.6% (+0.9)
No 47.1% (-0.3)

MEDIAN AVERAGE (excluding Don't Knows) :

Yes 47.8% (n/c)
No 52.2% (n/c)

(The Poll of Polls is based on a rolling average of the most recent poll from each of the pollsters that have been active in the referendum campaign since September 2013, and that adhere to British Polling Council rules. At present, there are seven - YouGov, TNS-BMRB, Survation, Panelbase, Ipsos-Mori, Opinium and ICM. Whenever a new poll is published, it replaces the last poll from the same company in the sample. Changes in the Poll of Polls are generally glacial in nature due to the fact that only a small portion of the sample is updated each time.)

113 comments:

  1. "The MORI poll represents a seven-point increase in support for Yes and a seven-point drop in backing for No."
    http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/news/292479-referendum-no-campaign-has-two-point-lead-in-final-ipsos-mori-poll/

    nice

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  2. Nice to see a dissenter from the 48/52 club!

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  3. I must say that I'm getting emotionally tired of this. Just want the vote to happen. :)

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  4. This is a must read by someone who likely would not be in favor of YES but is also a watcher of the US Political scene.

    "Don't be surprised if Scotland votes for independence. I think "yes" might have an edge"

    by Tim Stanley

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100286651/dont-be-surprised-if-scotland-votes-for-independence-i-think-yes-might-have-an-edge/

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  5. Sooooo.....

    NO drops 5% to 49% and it all goes to YES.

    DK drops 2% and it all goes to YES.

    YES rises from 40% to 47%.

    When you look at all the polls the movement is almost 100% from DK to YES.

    And thats not including the "missing million."

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  6. The direction of travel is now clear - the undecideds should if this poll is correct break more for Yes than No.

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  7. Is it true that Kellner has suggested on air that he thinks No will win?

    That would clearly show that YouGov have No ahead by a considerable margin.

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  8. Good links George, thanks. Let's hope it's just one more full day to a free Scotland as getting this close won't happen again for some time...

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  9. Have to wait and see Xabi....Yougov were out by a fair distance in 2011.

    Ipsos were the closest to 2011 I believe?

    This poll is very heartening, we can do this.

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  10. Kellner always said No would win, even that it was impossible for Yes to win. It seems highly unlikely that YouGov will out Yes ahead but his comment would likely be the same if they have them 50/50.

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  11. Robert, West LothianSeptember 17, 2014 at 5:52 PM

    Xabi
    I think he might have said that fairly recently but I'm sure it was before we saw this late surge from Yes. Can't see his poll later tonight being anything different from what we've seen this last 24 hours,

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  12. Looks to me that people planning Yes are starting to agree to be polled by MORI.

    We might just get our Yes tomorrow.

    I'm not that interested in what Yougov get.

    Fingers crossed.

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  13. Kellners just attention-seeking...it will be at worst 50:50

    Chris D

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  14. In the summer of 1776, 56 men debated then put their signatures to the Declaration of Independence, written by Thomas Jefferson and beginning with;

    "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."

    Do you think any of this 56 asked "What currency will we use?"

    Do you think any of the 56 said "What about my pension?"

    Do you think Miliband, Cameron, Clegg, Brown or Darling could have filled the shoes of any of those 56 men?

    On Thursday, I have this feeling that Scotland will be reborn as a free nation yet a faithful friend of the people of England.

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  15. Fairly considerable shortening for Yes on the Betfair exchange. Lots of cash lumped. Could be people hedging...

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  16. "Kellners just attention-seeking...it will be at worst 50:50"

    Chris : Please don't do this again. There is no reason on Earth to suppose that it is going to be "at worst 50:50", and in my view there's quite a bit of evidence to the contrary.

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  17. George...this ain't the good ol USA so stop comparing!

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  18. @Callum, can you elaborate and put the betting odds in pounds and pence?

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  19. IpsosMori article in New Statesman still banging the shy No drum, reckons intimidated voters won't answer polls.

    Also making a comparison between Yes camp and Cleggmania in 2010, thinks we won't get our vote out as not commuted enough

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  20. C'mon James you always say that and it's always better when it's out!

    ;)

    Chris D

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  21. This is a good poll for YES and frankly at this late stage the YouGov poll is pretty much irrelevant. All the evidence suggests that (assuming the pollsters haven't got it all wrong)we are a bawhair from victory tomorrow.

    Time to stop fixating on polls. Every effort should be directed at getting the vote out. That could well make all the difference we need.

    Can't wait for tomorrow. Tired of polls, tired of talk, it is time to let the voting commence!!!

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  22. If YouGov showed a big no lead tonight it would just make them the outlier. Every other pollster, including IPSOS is converging.

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  23. @Everybody

    I suppose that Kellner would not have said today anything that went against the final figures of his company.

    We have to be realistic: We go into the voting day much better than we expected a month ago, but perhaps a couple of points behind.

    We can win this with a good ground game. Also we could actually be ahead, if the polls turn out to be structurally wrong for just two points. Normally this would not be likely, but this referendum is a bit special.

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  24. There's nothing on Twitter at all referencing Kellner's (supposed) remarks, which given that everyone is obsessed just now with getting any clue seems odd. Not calling the person who said they heard it a liar, just seems odd that not one person is mentioning it. In any case, I think it's possible he'd say that even if it was fairly close.

    To the person who asked about Betfair, about two hours ago, you'd have one about 550 pounds for a 100 stake on Yes, now it's about 470. Neil Lovatt (No supporter and betting wannabe guru) on Twitter getting concerned it means YouGov leaked and it's good for Yes. Who knows.

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  25. Kellner has plied the shy no theory since the dawn of time.

    This is all to play for and our 35,000 activists will be going hell for leather to get the RIC voters out as well as the all others.


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  26. Lib Lab Con are wittering on about Devo(deception) Max.

    But someone should tell Scots Labour Leader Johanne Lamont about it, she said

    '' We Scots are not genetically programmed to make decisions for ourselves.''

    That's what the Ruling Elites really thinks of us. What a disgrace. Now we have a once in a life time opportunity to stick two fingers up to the Westminster Establishment.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBH55ZeZU4w


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  27. No, Chris, that doesn't work. You claimed on Saturday that Panelbase would show a Yes lead. You were wrong. It's true that the Yes vote was higher in that poll than I expected, but you were still wrong. Based on what Kellner has said, and based on my own reading of the figures that YouGov have already released, I think you'll be wrong again tonight.

    It really doesn't do anyone's nerves any good for you to raise unrealistic expectations about polls on the basis of zero evidence. As for your earlier comment about Panelbase being "vipers", I can only hope that was intended to be tongue-in-cheek, because it was absurd.

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  28. Where was Kellners 'shy No' prior to August?

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  29. @Callum

    Well, that was the whole point of asking if it was true.

    Could changes in Betfair be due to the IpsosMORI poll?

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  30. Xabi - could be. But it's quite a big shift: Lovatt seemed fairly shocked by it. Not my area of expertise I must say.

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  31. So when is yougov ?

    Betcha it will show Yes in the lead ....

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  32. In my experience, the Betfair stuff moves in the poll result direction just before data is published. If it's moving towards Yes, it's because the poll will show that to be the case.nalmostvas if insider trading going on with the polling companies and the betting markets

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  33. Record low Scots born in the panelbase poll too (75.4%).

    Seems we have a growing refusal to respond rate, yet a rapidly rising Yes in this group and in polls even with the refusal to respond rising.

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  34. Lovatts obsessed with Betfair which still implies 80% likely for No...he's probably playing games.

    Chris D

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  35. James

    Why is expecting the polls to be ahead for yes so unrealistic ...it's what we all believe to be the true state of things

    Chris D

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  36. Scotland your clearly revelling in the attention, for DKs/Soft Naws just realise that if you succumb to the banality of the Status Quo that 'Project Fear' will immediately be redefined as operation 'Put'em back in their box' as perfidious Westminister copperfastens you as a regional entity.

    The polls are now a dead heat, so its the ground war and the above inevitability is gotta be incentive enough to coax doubters into giving Yes a comfortable lead.

    Also with George that polls are just not catching the formerly disenfranchised. Many will have doubts and may need prompting to assert their sacred entitlement to vote when for this one historic moment its value has the mightiest, most conceited Establishment in paroxysms of panic.

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  37. James thinks it's a bit daft to speculate on what a poll will be, but he'll be as keen to see what the figures are as everyone else is. Better not to get to excited. Pessimists are rarely disappointed.

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  38. http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/scotlands-no-voters-feel-threatened-afraid-to-speak-out-and

    Folk in Twitter saying this poll proves the shy no theory...

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  39. Such nonsense. The 'shy no' thing *may* be an issue where the majority of one's peer group are Yes (and reverse too of course). But the polls are conducted when people are in the security, comfort and privacy of their own homes, speaking to a person they don't know from a professional body, the idea that they'd be 'scared' to tell them how they're voting is silly - *especially* if that vote was the won being recommended by all the papers, authority figures, politicians and news media. It's garbage.

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  40. "Why is expecting the polls to be ahead for yes so unrealistic ...it's what we all believe to be the true state of things"

    Do we? All I've ever said is that I think Yes MIGHT win, which is not the same thing as saying that I think Yes are definitely ahead.

    As for the YouGov poll, the reason I think you're wrong is because a) I spent a while earlier today studying the cross-breaks of their poll for Sky News and it was clear No had some kind of lead, and b) Kellner would not have said what he did unless No had the lead in his own final poll.

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  41. @James

    Can you confirm that Kellner said that he thought No would win?

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  42. Shy No among a group of pals is one thing, shy No to a polling company is quite another. Do MORI use Scottish call centres for ref polls?

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  43. @xabi, on Youguv Twitter, Kellner is quoted a few days ago "No is more likely to win."

    To be honest based on his companys polling data, thats a proper answer.

    I do not think you will find any pollster say "No will win." You will likely say "No is more likely to win."

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  44. Kellner did not make the No victory remarks; it was on Monday when asked who he thought would win. So his prediction is not tied to whatever his poll says tonight. He's a dyed in the wool Unionist.

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  45. C'mon James don't do a Scottish Sun and bottle it now...we ARE going to win!

    Chris D

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  46. Shy voters are always associated with the party/cause that is behind in polls / does not have the support of the media. It becomes notable when the media demonise that cause / it's supporters. Calling them 'blood and soil' nazis etc would qualify.

    Where was shy No when Yes was up in the mid 50's and TNS getting as low as 25% Yes, with just over half of SNP 2011 saying Yes?

    Hmmm.

    Shy voters 'coming out' is typified by a sudden huge swing in polls with little warning. Like 2011, or, right now.

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  47. @Brian, "shy no" is an excuse.

    Its like the old phrase "silent majority."

    Do you know how many races went down in flames because the "silent majority" frankly did not nor ever existed.

    Shy no on an internet poll is rubbish.

    Shy no to a telephone poll after giving all kinds of personal information, rubbish.

    The NO campaign is pancking right now.

    They are fearful of the "missing million." But we have to confess that we MIGHT be using the "missing million" to carry YES as our own crutch. I doubt that but we need to face it.

    Regardless the "missing million" is a lot more real than the "shy noes."

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  48. Where was shy No when No was up in the mid 50's...

    Pants.

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  49. Thanks for the answers.

    There relevant thing here is not how sure he sounded that No would win, but when he did say that. If he has repeated his prediction this afternoon, then we can be pretty sure that YouGov has No in the lead.

    However, it sounds somewhat strange that the man would be openly revealing information that his company has prepared for a third party and that supposedly is embargoed until tonight.

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  50. Thanks for the answers.

    There relevant thing here is not how sure he sounded that No would win, but when he did say that. If he has repeated his prediction this afternoon, then we can be pretty sure that YouGov has No in the lead.

    However, it sounds somewhat strange that the man would be openly revealing information that his company has prepared for a third party and that supposedly is embargoed until tonight.

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  51. http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/scotland-independence-sep-2014-tables.pdf

    The IPSOS data tables are amazing. We absolutely clobber them among almost every conceivable demographic - apart from women, the elderly and folks who own their houses/have a mortgage. It also seems like people born and living in Scotland are going to vote decisively for independence. Problem for after if a No? Hope not.

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  52. Check out what Kellner says on BBC iPlayer on today's PM programme ( 5.12-5.16 approx) and decide for yourself.

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  53. Just a wee bit of info for everyone . I had a Journalist from Quebec in my taxi today , come to cover the vote , and he said that it was the shy noes that swung that vote ?

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  54. Well, that's opinion, not fact. It might have been shy Noes that decided Quebec, or the polls might have had a systemic problem, or they may have been a genuine late swing.

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  55. Just listened, John. He said 'no was probably ahead and would probably stay ahead, but I'm not putting any money on the outcome'. On that basis, I doubt YouGov is going to show anything like a big No lead. In fact, going by what he said earlier, it sounds like it may also be 52-48. Let's see.

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  56. Ps I believe that the Nationalists were 5% ahead going into that vote ?

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  57. @John F

    Well, Kellner highlights the "probably" when he says that No will probably stay ahead. But this pretty much suggests YouGov has No in the lead.

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  58. Wow. That MORI result is with an even lower Scottish NatID level in respondents than previously. Also too many rUKers / slightly too few Scots born.

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  59. Well spotted, SS (unfortunate acronym). It looks like Scots born are 68% of their weighted sample. What's that, about 15% less than it ought to be?

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  60. @Anonymous

    Was out street politicking today both in the centre of town and in a small shopping centre in one of the poorest areas of Dundee. Okay I was dressed as a panda but putting today with yesterday the not previously registered people are fizzing to vote, switched on and they are certainly not going to revert to the status quo. They are angry at the status quo.

    Was talking to a chap yesterday who produced an encyclical handed out in his catholic church which included a naked plea to voter No from a bishop. He was fizzing and disappointed about that. I pointed out the church these days are part of the establishment and keen to stay that way after recent scandals so are not going to rock the boat. Not to mention their bishops want to sit in the house of lords like the anglicans. Independence would scupper that for the Scottish bishops.

    The piece also had a pop at the secular public square alleging that iScotland would exclude the religious from it which a read of the draft constitution will dispel. As an atheist it is depressing that the bigwigs in a religion which has benefited more than the dissenting protestants from the secular space are now attacking it.

    Add in George Galloway's naked stirring of the sectarian pot without a shred of evidence and this guy was mad as hell. Still going to vote Yes despite all that. Mind you they saw through Gorgeous George here in Dundee a long time ago. Which is part of why he left.

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  61. Oh is this the one that I was polled in last Sunday? If so, I helped push it to nearly 50/50 :-)

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  62. @Scottish_Skier @Callum

    What page are you looking at?

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  63. It seems to me that the poll is weighted by country of birth and that they roughly have 80% of Scottish respondents. What am I missing?

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/scotland-independence-sep-2014-tables.pdf

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  64. Page 3. CoB is actually about right, but the sample is more British than usual (and way off long term SSAS / census data).

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  65. A poll for the Sun tonight is No 54% Yes 46% DN 6% according to a Journalist friend

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  66. @Scottish_Skier

    How is that? I get 13% of Brits/Irish people.

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  67. Sorry, CoB is actually not bad; I was confused by a later table.

    It's natID that's way off compared to long term numbers (and natID is not something that changes rapidly, although what people say might depending on the circumstances).

    If you re-weight to long term nat ID.

    Oh shit. Looks like pre-2007 Y/Ns.

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  68. Actually, my mistake (brain leak), it's more like 80%. Apologies.

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  69. My dad took a call earlier from a Company called NQR, asking voting intentions, past vote, what you think Scotlands place on the world stage would be, Economics etc... Anyone ever heard of them before and know what their game is? There's a post on the Bella Facebook page by some other guys saying they received similar calls today aswell...

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  70. @James

    This paragraph in the PoP sounds a bit strange and perhaps needs updating:

    «Yes only slip back in this update of the Poll of Polls due to the last ICM poll (which now almost certainly looks like an extreme outlier) being replaced in the sample. But we presume that Yes are still being understated due to the fact that an ancient Ipsos-Mori poll is still being taken into account. That problem should finally be rectified tomorrow - unless of course Ipsos-Mori's No-friendly status persists and they fail to converge in the way that YouGov and TNS have.»

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  71. Kellner is a bigoted prick who has staked his entire reputation on getting a No vote. No poll from You Gov can be trusted to be accurate as long as the boss has an agenda.

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  72. Not sure whether the anon is up to it, but would Kellner say he 'wasn't sure' if No were ahead if it was outside MOE?

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  73. I'm amazed that Anon managed to find a poll that adds up to 106%.

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  74. I assume he could have meant 54-46 exc DKs, with 6 percent DKs.

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  75. Even though a YouGov poll showing Y54/46N would be great, I doubt soumeone is going to break the pollster's consensus and go that high.

    In fact, it's likely to be a troll to get our hopes up.

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  76. What? He or she is saying it's 54 to No, not Yes.

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  77. Apologies, I misread it. Still, such a gap either way is unlikely at this stage.

    During the last couple of weeks it's only been a poll commissioned by Better Together that's put Yes that low.

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  78. yeah but if he knew the figures with undecideds, why not just stick that up anyway

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  79. Yougov predicted a narrowing gap with Labour catching up with the SNP in the last few weeks ahead of 2011.

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  80. For what it's worth, I think the rumour is perfectly plausible based on the YouGov numbers I was looking at earlier.

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  81. Anyone else tweeted these numbers? or is it just this one post?

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  82. The figures I gave for the Sun were from a text from journalist friend no other info or explanation have texted back asking for more detail

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  83. It's just the one post so far. Nothing on Twitter.

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  84. How many polls are due out tonight.?

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  85. Whatever way it goes tomorrow, I have nothing but respect and admiration for the campaign for Independence.

    And make no mistake, even if the result is NO, this aint going away.

    Yes has won. Either way.

    Hugh

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  86. Just a tweet on betting odds for Yes.

    ‏@neiledwardlovat 1m
    #Indyref odds dropping to 4.5 for Yes…. YouGov on the way???

    Poll has been leaked somewhere maybe?

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  87. That guy's been ascribing huge meaning to every fluctuation in the odds for the last few hours.

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  88. Seriously? An anon posts my pal said 54N and a rational discussion ensues? Really?! Heres my scientific verdict - absolute pish. At most Kellner's crew will reverse the last poll for the STimes (51N-49Y). Either way You Gov will be shown to have got the numbers wrong...again.

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  89. I can not believe that I am getting hooked into this..

    But 54 N 46 N 6 DK should be reading..

    Yes 43%, NO 51% and DK 6%

    Versus on the 11th

    Yes 45%, NO 50%, and DK 6%

    So if the rumour is true and not a concern troll, Yougov is diverging away from the other polls.....

    Possible? Yes

    But if true, Youguv is set up to be a brilliant poller leading the way away from the pack or will have splaining to do on Friday.

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  90. I imagine if we get Yes ahead in tomorrows huge sample Scotland-wide poll it will be described as an outlier.

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  91. Should have said on previous post apparently it's a big number of people asked

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  92. Might be helpful if these anonymous posters would use a name so that when they cite their "previous post" we could understand what they're on about.

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  93. I listened to Radio 4's PM programme and the section on Polling. It was introduced as 'Are the Polls heading for another Waterloo ?' ie - similar to 1992 when they got it so wrong.

    It set the tone for fairly timid / defensive responses from Kellner, who really just seemed like he wasn't that confident. The remarkable quote came from the ICM guy on the weekend 54% Yes poll who wishes he could just 'airbrush it from history'

    All in all I wouldn't read anything into those interviews, the whole tone was speculative and no-one was coming out with a definite opinion.

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  94. David Clegg from Daily Record is tweeting that another Survation poll is on it's way.

    Says they are hammering the phones trying to get data. Shame that most Yes people are out on the streets campaigning or partying.

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  95. In two hours time the broadcasters have a legal embargo from discussing opinion polls which lasts until the polls close, so there won't be much media coverage really of the 10pm polls, never mind the pointless one that comes out tomorrow. At this stage they are of interest, but are really in effect irrelevant. The narrative everyone will go to vote with tomorrow is that things are very close, and that their vote really matters.

    I have no idea what happens tomorrow. I will be absolutely bereft if Scotland votes NO tomorrow, but as a democrat and a lover of every person who lives here, I will respect whatever we decide.

    The time of the polls is over, it is now the time of voting.

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  96. The stakes couldn't be higher for the cause of indy. Quebec said No by a wafer and now the Yes side gets around 20% in elections. people say even if its No tomorrow Yes will continue to aim for indy but it could be over for a very long time if Yes fails to GTVO

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  97. YouGov results just announced:

    Yes - 48%
    No - 52%

    Thank Christ for that.

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  98. So both polls out, and both within the margin of error. Look forward to James' analysis later. Let's get a sleep, and let's get voting people!!

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  99. So they are all copying each other. It tells me they haven't a clue!

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  100. Not ideal but not bad either as it leaves the Yes side with a shot. To be fair, considering all the negative media stories against Yes, etc. - it's good that the vote has actually stayed not too far from 50%.

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  101. That's it too close to call.

    Pollsters have had their day. It is up to the voters now.

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  102. The pollsters seem to be taking the approach of "If we screw up then we all go down together!".

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  103. Thank you Scot goes pop.
    You are one of the shining lights of the Indy debate.
    You have supported us and tried to dispel the misinformation from the No campaign.
    All the best for tomorrow and the Real Poll.
    Hoss

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