These are the extraordinary numbers that will be beamed to STV viewers across the country at 6pm...
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 49% (+7)
No 51% (-7)
I don't think it's possible to overstate just how unbelievable a turnaround this represents for Ipsos-Mori, so often the most No-friendly polling firm in this campaign, and indeed very often the most No-friendly by quite some distance. I vividly recall sitting in a strange location one evening at the start of March (long story) and feeling my heart sink to the floor as I spotted a tweet from Tam Britton about an Ipsos-Mori poll that, entirely counter-intuitively given the trend from other firms, saw the Yes vote fall to just 36%. After I'd reflected on it for a few hours, my reaction on this blog was : "I think we can now safely say that Yes will not be in the lead with Ipsos-Mori by September. But the big question is, do they need to be?" Well, I may be proved right about the first point (there's one more Ipsos-Mori poll to come tomorrow), but it certainly isn't going to be by much.
For my money, this is the most crucial of today's polls from a psychological point of view, simply because of the "Hi, I'm John MacKay" factor. If STV had been telling their viewers about a race that was close, but which No appeared to be winning, it might have depressed the Yes vote slightly tomorrow. As it is, the message voters will be getting is that this is practically a coin-toss, and that (fittingly) Scotland's future is in Scotland's hands for the next 24 hours.
Technically, the fieldwork for this poll can be regarded as slightly earlier than both the Panelbase poll we've already seen, and the YouGov poll which is due tonight. because although it started on the same day as the other two (Monday), it finished a day earlier (Tuesday). So if the YouGov poll turns out to be significantly less good for Yes, there may be speculation over whether YouGov have detected a very late swing that Ipsos-Mori missed, or whether it's just a question of differing methodologies. If it's the latter, then there's certainly a case to be made for putting more faith in a telephone pollster that doesn't weight by past vote recall at all, thus opting out of the whole minefield of deciding exactly how that should be done.
* * *
SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS
MEAN AVERAGE (excluding Don't Knows) :
Yes 48.1% (+0.7)
No 51.9% (-0.7)
MEAN AVERAGE (not excluding Don't Knows) :
Yes 43.6% (+0.9)
No 47.1% (-0.3)
MEDIAN AVERAGE (excluding Don't Knows) :
Yes 47.8% (n/c)
No 52.2% (n/c)
(The Poll of Polls is based on a rolling average of the most recent poll from each of the pollsters that have been active in the referendum campaign since September 2013, and that adhere to British Polling Council rules. At present, there are seven - YouGov, TNS-BMRB, Survation, Panelbase, Ipsos-Mori, Opinium and ICM. Whenever a new poll is published, it replaces the last poll from the same company in the sample. Changes in the Poll of Polls are generally glacial in nature due to the fact that only a small portion of the sample is updated each time.)