Monday, September 1, 2014

Scotland stands on the brink of independence as Yes vote surges to 47% in historic poll from traditionally No-friendly firm YouGov

Well, it looks like we can stop wondering whether Alex Salmond's victory in the second TV debate had an impact on public opinion. Here are tonight's sensational findings from YouGov -

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 47% (+4)
No 53% (-4)


And when Don't Knows are taken into account, it's...

Yes 42% (+4)
No 48% (-3)


Let's try to put this into some kind of perspective - although given the scale of what appears to be happening, it's difficult to know where to start. Throughout this campaign, YouGov have consistently vied with Ipsos-Mori for the title of the most No-friendly pollster. At one point, just over a year ago, they showed figures of Yes 33%, No 67% - an almost unique example of the London media's beloved "2-1 margin for No" narrative actually becoming reality. Immediately after the SNP's victory in 2011, the President of YouGov, Peter Kellner, made the daft claim that it was literally impossible for Yes to win a referendum that was still over three years away, and since then it's been murderously difficult to escape the impression that he's been (perhaps subconsciously) moulding his firm's methodology to bolster that ludicrous prediction. And, yes, the No-friendly methodology remains in place in tonight's poll - we already have confirmation that there has been no change in methods since the last YouGov poll. So if Yes are on 47% after the so-called Kellner Correction was applied to the figures, the mind boggles as to what the results would be without it. Based on the traditional differential between the various firms, this poll is perfectly consistent with a narrow Yes lead among the more Yes-friendly pollsters such as Survation and Panelbase.

But that last point offers a clue as to why we should still exercise a little caution, because of course the only other published poll to be conducted since the second debate was from Survation, and although it was very good for Yes (an equalling of their all-time best showing) it didn't put them in an outright lead. So it's always possible that the YouGov poll might prove to be an outlier, and that the swing to Yes isn't quite as big as it appears. However, it's very hard to believe that there hasn't been a swing to Yes of some description, and from the comments that have been attributed to Peter Kellner tonight, it appears that even he agrees with that. He claims to have checked that the movement is real and concluded that it is. Doubtless he'll be careful to base that analysis only on the published results, but to my mind it's hugely significant that we know there was another YouGov referendum poll in the field over the last few days - perhaps a Better Together internal poll, perhaps a poll for an academic study. So Kellner will have lots of information to go on in private, and if none of that is causing him to doubt tonight's swing, the conclusion to draw is obvious.

Let's not forget that there was also a poll in the field over recent days conducted by Panelbase, which appeared to be an internal poll for Yes Scotland. I initially assumed that the reason it wasn't passed to the Sunday Herald for publication was that it didn't show any further progress for Yes, but the events of tonight at least raise the possibility that it was actually withheld because the Yes campaign were keen to maintain their underdog status, which appears to be working so well for them. However, that will have to remain an open question for now.

Tonight's timing, of course, could hardly be any better, as this is the first YouGov poll that is partly an exit poll - a significant minority of respondents will have been telling the firm how they have already voted, rather than merely how they plan to vote. So at worst, if YouGov's No-friendly methodology proves to be accurate, it appears that we no longer have to worry that the fact that voting is already underway might put Yes at a significant disadvantage, and leave them needing well over 50.1% of the votes cast on polling day. At best, if YouGov's methodology is painting too pessimistic a picture for Yes, it could be that it's actually a small advantage for us that the referendum has started.

If this poll doesn't prove to be an outlier, probably the one lingering concern might be that we're merely seeing a temporary post-debate bounce. But my gut feeling (for what it's worth) is that Alex Salmond's performance was the equivalent of what we always say about North Sea Oil - it was just a fantastic bonus, not what we rely upon. The greatest amount of persuasion has been done on the ground.

To give a small amount of credit to YouGov, they're one of only two pollsters that have taken the eminently sensible step of introducing country of birth weighting, to correct for the fact that there always seems to be too many English-born people in their samples. But they're also one of only two pollsters (the other is TNS) that do not filter or weight their headline numbers by likelihood to vote. Quite often (but categorically not always) that practice slightly suppresses the reported Yes vote. We'll have to wait for the datasets to see if that has been the case in tonight's poll - last time around the No lead was 2% lower among definite voters than it was in the published numbers.

Finally, I should just give some comparison figures for people who don't fully appreciate just how No-friendly YouGov have always been. Before tonight, their highest ever figure for Yes after Don't Knows are excluded was 43% - and that was only reached in the last poll. That record has been smashed by an almost unbelievable 4%. The previous record for Yes with Don't Knows taken into account was 38%, which again was only reached in the last poll, and which has also been surpassed by 4%. And for three successive YouGov polls between mid-June and early August, Yes were only hovering at 39-40% after Don't Knows were excluded - they're now 7-8% higher than that.

* * *

REQUIRED SWINGS

Swing required for 1 out of 6 pollsters to show Yes ahead or level : 2.0%

Swing required for 3 out of 6 pollsters to show Yes ahead or level : 3.0%

Swing required for 5 out of 6 pollsters to show Yes ahead or level : 4.5%

Swing required for 6 out of 6 pollsters to show Yes ahead or level : 7.0%


* * *

SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

You won't be surprised to hear that on all counts, tonight's Poll of Polls update sees Yes moving to an all-time high. By far the biggest swing is on the median average, which comes about because YouGov have (albeit almost certainly only temporarily) moved to the Yes-friendly end of the scale.

MEAN AVERAGE (excluding Don't Knows) :

Yes 45.0% (+0.6)
No 55.0% (-0.6)

MEAN AVERAGE (not excluding Don't Knows) :

Yes 39.3% (+0.6)
No 48.0% (-0.5)

MEDIAN AVERAGE (excluding Don't Knows) :

Yes 45.7% (+2.0)
No 54.3% (-2.0)


(The Poll of Polls is based on a rolling average of the most recent poll from each of the pollsters that have been active in the referendum campaign since September 2013, and that adhere to British Polling Council rules. At present, there are six - YouGov, TNS-BMRB, Survation, Panelbase, Ipsos-Mori and ICM. Whenever a new poll is published, it replaces the last poll from the same company in the sample. Changes in the Poll of Polls are generally glacial in nature due to the fact that only a small portion of the sample is updated each time.)

89 comments:

  1. That fits.

    Would help explain relative silence on the polling front recently.

    You might want to think about reaching up and getting ready hold onto your hat.

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  2. I think you should show changes on 7th August James...

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  3. Figure including don't knows are Yes: 42% No: 48% DK: 10%

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  4. NO lead in previous #IndyRef YouGov polls:
    August 7th - 22%
    August 15th - 14%
    September 1st - 6%

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  5. YouGov shows a higher Yes vote in the full sample than Panelbase and Survation! Just wow.

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  6. Schwiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnngggggg! :-)

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  7. First time that No is below 50% in the raw vote since the Referendum was called.

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  8. Just back in (darkness is no barrier when you have a referendum to win) ;-) Saer feet but what have we here?

    YouGov, rapidly closing the gap before polling day? Now where have I heard that before?

    I'm shocked, I tell you, shocked! that the EGGPOCALYPSE! hasn't halted Yes in it's tracks.

    ROFL

    Now the outright panic from the No campaign truly begins.

    If you thought they sounded shrill, demented and hysterical before, you ain't seen nothing yet.

    :-D

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  9. Could it be that the internal Yes Scotland Panelbase poll actually had us ahead then? I agreed with James that this was unlikely, but perhaps after this poll, Im not too sure....

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  10. I don't think this was because of the debate - I've virtually never heard it mentioned when canvassing. It's principally the Yes campaign on the ground that has done this, not Salmond.

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  11. This gives me a warm glow. :) But really it only confirms what we knew in our hearts to be the case. Still, it's nice to see....VERY nice. :)

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  12. Keaton. Lets just give credit to everyone including Salmond.

    Through late July, early August, I was beginning to doubt. I'm back on form tonight! :)

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  13. Now is a VERY good time to post this.

    Don't just watch from the sidelines while history is being made. Get in there and you will find likeminded scots from all walks of life and of all ages helping shape the future of scotland.

    There's a group near you or a Yes shop and they are staffed by friendly, helpful, knowledgeable people who will greatly appreciate anything you can do to help.

    http://www.yesscotland.net/local-groups

    Just pop in and have a chat if you like. See for yourself.

    So do something, anything, and you will find it incredibly rewarding. From showing your support with a poster, flag, car sticker or badge, to joining in with a team delivering leaflets or Yes papers.

    The Yes campaign grass roots movement was already massive, absolutely dedicated and optimistic well before the polls started belatedly catching up with the reality on the ground.

    Join in now and you certainly won't regret it.

    :-)

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  14. Even though this is just Wow! like other comments. I am still going to go out and canvass, man stalls etc for various parts of the Yes campaign (mainly RIC) right up to polling day. I don't care how big a Yes vote majority comes from the polls. Every SINGLE vote will count. Especially since the bigger the majority the fewer court challenges and general grumping there will be.

    If even YouGov is measuring the rise in Yes then reality must as James says be much, much better. Even considering what we see on the doorsteps and the streets.

    Just the number of people who happily take obvious Yes leaflets out of your hands on the street and say 'Thanks' vs those who either refuse or say 'Sorry I'm a No' indicate the polls are wrong. That's right, people thank me for handing them a Yes leaflet and they are not faking it.

    Colleagues have reported the same phenomenon. Street campaigning with badges on me is a real pleasure. My faith in the people of Scotland just increases. We will do this.

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  15. Power to the people of Scotland.

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  16. About the other poll that you previously mentioned about being a YES Scotland internal. Yesterday O posited that it was showing an extraordinary shift, even the YES camp were having trouble to believe it and needed verifcation. I would be tempted to suggest that that poll might be release soon. However I think the people inside yES are too smart and will wait for their own internal confirmation before rushing in with the killer surge. I guess YES is at 55 % already. I think the big flip happened over the last bad week for the NO. Folk have just ran out of patience with the repeat cycles of negative tired crap form BT. How many times have we heard the million jobs at risk. brain drain from unis? Game over, if we keep the steady game. Expect defections in the next 2 weeks.

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  17. What a pleasant thing to see after a night's leafleting :-) Keep working and we can do this.

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  18. I said on the other site that the change in the polls would coincide with folk getting their polling cards. The ground work has been laid so many people are informed. Now people have to decide and they are deciding for Yes.

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  19. What surprises me most about this poll is the number of still 'Don't Knows'. 3 weeks away and around 10%! Thats a lot of people still to convince.

    The momentum is clearly with YES now and I really wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of high figures jump ship to YES and even a Newspaper to come out for YES.
    Some political figures will now be thinking of a career in an iScotland and some newspapers (The Sun) will be thinking of nothing other than sales.

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  20. Great news from the YouGov poll and absolutely in line with the anecdotal evidence we are all experiencing on the ground. Even my most hardcore No colleague is now swithering. People want to be part of history and if they believe Yes can win, they will jump on the bandwagon. There is a groundswell taking place and it can't be stopped.

    Ladbrokes are now offering 11/4 on Yes and the Betfair price is also tightening. There's still value there!


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  21. MickPork,

    Oh just sod off you horrible nasty cybernat you. Freedom! Currency!

    ;-)

    Hugh

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  22. Hugh,

    You realise of course the imaginary crack squads of Yes Eggpelters will be coming for you.

    ;-)

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  23. Unconfirmed report from Ecks meeting in Perth tonight he is reported to have said that a good poll is due out tomoz. He said he could not say too much tho.

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  24. Anon : That'll be the YouGov poll we've already seen. "Tomorrow" means "in tomorrow's papers".

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  25. I wondered if the YouGov delay was because the numbers were so extraordinary that they wanted to double check.

    Seems I was right!

    It looks like less and less people are 'saying No To Yes Men' gloat gloat!

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  26. The greatest benefit of both the big Indy debates were that they ENGAGED those in the referendum debate who hadnt yet been active. As we know, the YES argument wins hands down. Once folks start asking questions amd seeking answers.... =swing

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  27. The fact that it's YouGov AND still using the absurd Kellner Correction is what makes it poetry. ;-)

    However, doesn't mean every poll we get from now on will be great so be prepared. 2011 was still incredibly patchy pollwise even right up till the end. And the polls were still out at the end remember. Keep the heid and keep your eyes on the prize.

    We've come this far without letting the unionist press scaremongerers and doomsayers put a dent in the largest and most effective grassroots campaign ever seen in scotland. We can certainly give it all we have and make it through to the finishing line now.

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  28. James,

    Thanks for the analysis.

    I was talking to two young men tonight, one of who said that there is about a +10% advantage in Glasgow, according to their canvassing.

    What do you think about canvassing, is it more likely or less likely to be accurate than polls?

    I think we can win this.

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    1. Was sceptical about the canvas accuracy myself. But after going out today its clear there are many who will not say how they will vote. Seems polling co.s going to be v hard pushed to model that. But visual and tone clues can give Canvaser hints they can register during often leagthy conversations. Some 'talk themselves to YES' as they discuss what matters to them - not the set of questions pollster wants to ask. Also canvases over multiple rounds and call back visits. The 1-10 scale helps to track thinking and movement.

      On balance Canvas returns could be large and psudo-random enough across whole country to have fewer problems in method than genuine weighted Poll figures.

      The work in finding and registering those off the register is also hugely important. Reports of queuing in Perth today at Offices to Register. Polling Co.s cant cope with that kind of change in Scottish mood and politics.

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  29. I'm in constant pain, and struggle getting ready for work in the morning.
    This news has made the morning more pleasant than normal.
    It's coming yet!

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  30. Wonder what the next Panelbase poll will show.

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  31. Blow for Salmond as Labour and SNP neck and neck!

    :-)

    Aye, even with the Kellner Correction...

    Yes ahead in men and all age groups bar the over 60's. Women and Labour voters shifting.

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  32. I wondered why this thread was so short. Then I realised. The unionist trolls have gone away.

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  33. Data sets out.
    Kellner checked to see if swing was real, says it was:

    "My reason is that of the 1,063 people we questioned, almost 500 are people we had questioned earlier this year in one of our surveys reporting much bigger ‘no’ leads"

    Probably confirms a suspicion posited around here; the 'Kellner' correction, i.e. creating a new weighting group of Lab 2010/SNP 2011 voters is probably comprised of a very small number of actual poll respondents (they have always been up-weigthed by around double). If this group on the YouGov panel is(was) overly no compared to the real situation then the polls would be distorted quite heavily.

    What has probably happened is that these 'passing nats' as Kellner calls them have been shifting massively to Yes in the past few weeks. This could explain the large swing in YouGov polls, which could have been underestimating support before; but are now overestimating the swing (and perhaps even the Yes/No breakdown?).

    This also means that the swings seen in other polls will be much less dramatic, I don't expect to see a 4 point swing from panelbases next poll now tbh.


    Also the VI for Holyrood is still off in my book, there is absolutely no way Labour is so close to the SNP, I just don't see it.

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  34. James's your analysis of this epoch-making poll is admirably restrained and fair. You really have every right to be fiercely critical of YouGov, and indeed to say 'I told you so' because this poll surely proves you have been right all along and that Kellner had absolutely no grounds for claiming the referendum would not be close at the point he did. It also seems a bit outrageous now that he was criticising another pollster who may well have been more not less accurate than YouGov!


    It is very strange for me because I came to this site around that time and at first I assumed its criticism of YoGov was merely partial but as I saw the arguments, I began to wonder. Now I am convinced your arguments were right, I think they were always seriously underestimating the Yes vote and are now swinging into line. It is an uncanny echo of 2011. And frankly this site, and a comparison with 2011 has given me a better inkling of what was on the way than others who just looked at main media.

    If you compare it with 2011 then its all come much later but with the ground game and the trend, it looks to be a photo finish or else (if things speed up a tad) a clear Yes win. I still maintain there may be some who hate this referendum, want nothing to do with it, and therefore shun all pollsters, who will be firm No but it's only conjecture and even if they exist, there's no way of knowing numbers.

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  35. Be aware too that, given this is the game-changing poll at a critical point, everyone should note it is surely no coincidence the poll is commissioned by the Sun and the Times, two Murdoch newspapers. More than ever I stand by my sense Murdoch's Sun (well known to be where his heart lies) will commit to Yes at the end of next week. I hope not and I say this not because it may or may not influence the result but just because it is a curse I would not wish on a new born Scotland even as a No voter.

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  36. As a No voter, I'm not going to argue with James Kelly's summary of this poll. When we got the 61-39 YouGov poll last month I couldn't help but have this niggling little feeling that it was all a bit too good to be true. One thing is for sure is that regardless of the outcome, of the referendum, Peter Kellner is not going to come out of this smelling of roses after his comments about Survation.

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  37. Clearly a very good poll for "yes" and a very bad one for "no", hinting at a shift in momentum.

    You can see from the internals the dramatic effect of the debate; Salmond's rating as the right person to lead the yes campaign has improved 18 points and moved from negative to positive, and Darling has shed 26 points, moving from positive to negative on the equivalent question for "no". Darling has also shed 14 points on the "trust" question and now trails Salmond (who gained only 3).

    There is also some indication that the yes campaign has succdessfully ramped up its ground game mroe than the no campaign, although that could be distorted by yes voters not observing no campaign activity - either a function of targetting or beligerence!

    Still, only one poll. A range of possibilities still exist:

    1. YouGov could have correctly identified a major swing, and the election is now close, with yes having the momentum;

    2. YouGov have correctly identified a swing, but the effect is exaggerated by margin of error, and in fact the no lead is healthier

    3.YouGov have correctly identified a swing, but the effect is understated by margin of error and the race is neck-and-neck

    4. YouGov's methodology is wrong and the race is in fact neck-and-neck or there is a yes lead.

    5. This is just a massive outlier.(I don't think that's very likely)

    More polling will give us a better idea.

    In the meantime I hope the conspiracy theorists will accept that Yougov aren't the psephological wing of the no campaign and they are reporting it exactly as they see it.

    Interestingly this poll allows us to identify what proportion of "yes" supporters have drunk the kool aid - it is somewhere between the 32% who think that most business leaders support independence, and the 35% who think there is "no uncertainty" on issues like currency, euro membership etc.

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  38. "Interestingly this poll allows us to identify what proportion of "yes" supporters have drunk the kool aid - it is somewhere between the 32% who think that most business leaders support independence, and the 35% who think there is "no uncertainty" on issues like currency, euro membership etc."

    That seems to chime with my own instincts towards the matter. I've always thought there's about a third of hard Yes voters, a third of hard No voters such as myself and the rest being in varying degrees (Yes-leaning, No, leaning, or completely undecided) of indecision.

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  39. 4. YouGov's methodology is wrong and the race is in fact neck-and-neck or there is a yes lead.

    There are still too many Labour voters on their pannel. Await Panelbase or Survation but likely the real situation as above.

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  40. Utterly hilarious, oh let's call it what it is, delusional, that anyone can talk about a 'ground campaign' for No. Goodness, talk about drinking the kool aid. You just couldn't make it up.

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  41. There is a ground campaign for No, my mother in law who lives in Baillieston (Glasgow East End) was canvassed last weekend by an extremely posh english lad (about 21 yrs old). One of the crew being bussed up by labour?

    Not sure how effective these posh english lads are going to be in east end of glasgow!!!!

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  42. I'll have time to check in on the Yes shop after work though I fully expect it to have been completely packed with smiling faces everywhere.

    Right now I have just enough time on my break now to deliver some collected donations to Barnardos and repeat these links for anyone who can help.

    http://www.barnardos.org.uk/what_we_do/barnardos_today/scotland.htm

    www.nspcc.org.uk

    http://lucyfaithfull.org/

    www.womensaid.org.uk

    www.actionforchildren.org.uk

    www.stopitnow.org.uk/donate.htm

    www.kidscape.org.uk


    I would urge anyone concerned for the victims to do what they can to help. Invaluable charities like these deal with this appalling tragedy day in and day out so can help where it is needed most.

    The abuse scandal is simply too important and distressing a matter to leave to some of the most repulsive racists who are drooling all over it with barely disguised glee.

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  43. Guardian and Telegraph running stories that Pound has fallen on trading against Dollar and Euro.

    Seems the market is waking up to the reality of an indy scotland.

    Will this force westministers hand and bring them to the table for currency union talks?

    Maybe its good that polls are not showing us ahead yet, don't want BT using market jitters against us.

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  44. Sorry James, my mistake. I'd better stop telling everyone that, too, oops!

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  45. Event with John Curtice: https://www.facebook.com/events/831197396894371

    Can anybody make this? I can't, but would love to here his (perhaps more unguarded) thoughts on the 'Kellner' correction.

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  46. It's not the absolute numbers so much as the swing and the momentum. Yes is rampant. Yes is all over the place. No is bitter, surly and shooting itself in the foot.

    Canvass returns, window posters, anecdotal evidence of people moving to Yes and even betting patterns don't speak of a country about to vote No.

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  47. Yes I am a bit surprised the stock market is not reacting yet . I am also a bit staggered there are so few articles on the immediate economic results of a Yes vote. That will I am sure all come soon

    Mick I was going to ask you to post those charities again and thanks for doing so. I have donated to two because I sense you are seeing some tough things in your canvassing and I was also touched by the fact your Yes shops are registering Nos too.

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  48. Rolfe writes:

    Canvass returns, window posters, anecdotal evidence of people moving to Yes and even betting patterns don't speak of a country about to vote No.

    OK but while I am not disagreeing on the momentum in the polls these things you mention above are seen in plenty of losing elections. If Yes wins handsomely of course you will be justified in looking back and feeling you caught the vibe but that vibe can just as easily be a subjective view.

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  49. In my heart, I have always believed this was going to be big. That the soul of my country would awake when the time was right and choose to reclaim what was lost in 1603/1707. To rejoin the world on an equal footing with other small European democracies.

    I've spent the past three years telling myself that I was delusional, indulging in wish-fulfillment and all that crap. I've ignored my heart and told it to shut up with the romantic fantasies. But still it insisted.

    So here we are. As Scottish Skier said, maybe hold on to your hat.

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  50. What do you guys reckon about the Herald story stating that there are now actually fewer people registered to vote in the poorest areas than there were in 2012?

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  51. I hope you are right Rolfe.

    Tens of thousands registering, let's hope things are never the same again.

    I am feeling a tad rough after a stag do in Hamburg. Amazing the reaction from Germans asking about the ref, was with a couple of no voters who were taken aback at the germans saying we should go for it and that we must be mad if we vote no.

    The look on their faces was funny.

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  52. I had a group of visitors from Germany staying with me in June, and they were very positive. This after a different couple (from the same choir) last year were saying things about old countries (like Bavaria) not really wanting to go it alone again and why did we?

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  53. What do you guys reckon about the Herald story stating that there are now actually fewer people registered to vote in the poorest areas than there were in 2012?

    "Who do you believe, me or your lying eyes?"

    https://mobile.twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/506809163943800833?p=v

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  54. A couple of things:

    1) I'm interested in this "missing" Panelbase poll. Part of me thinks the most likely reason Yes haven't released it is that it's bad (or not as good as they wanted). On the other hand, it could be that it's good (perhaps Yes lead) and they think that to be slightly behind is the ideal position to be in, giving us the underdog appeal and ensuring activists still feel they have to go out and win it. What are people's thoughts on these possibilities or others? My feeling is that we need at least one major poll to show us ahead before the 18th to give potential voters not whether they'll bother to vote that they have a chance of being on the "winning side"

    2) The YouGov poll confirms the demographic splits in the Survation poll. Most Scots of working age are voting Yes. The only cohort YouGov have as No (and heavily so, by 24 points) are over 60s. This means either Yes needs to address pension concerns (and perhaps concerns about Britishness as an identity post-Yes) or it needs to ignore this cohort and build up support among groups it is already strong with. What are thoughts on this?

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  55. @Rolfe:
    We know that people are signing up. The question is whether what proportion of them are from poorer areas.

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  56. D'oh, should read: the question is what proportion of them are from poorer areas!

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  57. Since poorer people are far less likely to be registered, the chance that most new people registering are not poorer, when you count in *which* groups are actually working to register people, is very slight.

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  58. @Callum

    More likely Yes was ahead the time for Yes to move into the lead is next week. They wouldnt want to release it before the YouGov. I think they will be almost constantly polling at this point and will release a good Panelbase when the time is right.

    Of course they run the risk of Yes falling back but they must be working on the assumption that Yes momentum will continue till 18th if they can time everything just right.

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  59. There's apparently an IpsosMori poll out, tonight at tea time (any minute now)

    Could be interesting, if this is in fact the poll that Alex was talking about!

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  60. what ho chappys, i see you think yougov is a proper poll now then eh?

    remember to keep slating the tories and ukip though, us poor no's need that guaranteed 30% bedrock. we only need 20% of the rest then you see :-)

    350 hours till the poll opens tick-tock :-)

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  61. We thought it was underestimating the Yes vote. That opinion still stands. Chin chin old chap.

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  62. Is it safe to say there's not going to be an Ipsos MORI this evening, then? Not seen it mentioned anywhere except in Patrick's comment above.

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  63. I suspect the Ipsos Mori poll will be announced during the STV "town hall" debate programme tonight. They did the poll that was announced during their Salmond v Darling debate.

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  64. "350 hours till the poll opens tick-tock :-)"

    Now isn't that a laugh, the no lead is crashing through the floor and the no troll comes on acting all smug and self satisfied.

    You couldn't make it up. What a tonic, LOL!

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  65. Just decided to fill out a Yougov having not bothered in 2 years (I'm a 'not responding Scot').

    Same format as current VI, indyref etc.

    Then lots of questions on trust in campaigns, figures.. things that I might fear about Y or N, economy etc.

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  66. When I say same format I mean like the one we've just had and likely a paper rather than BT. Only one Q I felt was a bit silly in terms of leading me to say that the world would likely end if I voted Yes.

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  67. Just liked the colour scheme here.

    https://archive.today/z4hBl/2d3593c578f616e52e81147d466f8ac318fd8d14/scr.png

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  68. Incredibly busy today. Scottish voters are being registered right up to the midnight deadline. People in Yes shops and elsewhere (some MSPs were on the streets in Glasgow I heard) were helping while those with cars were arranging to take those very last minute people to the appropriate locations.

    Nor were all these people just forgetful or those who have never voted before. Quite a few were those who had made a last minute check to make doubly sure they were registered and found out they weren't.

    Regardless, all that came in were helped and assistance was given with explaining the procedure for proxy votes where it was needed.

    In the relative calm between those anxious to get registered there was an incredibly optimistic and positive atmosphere.

    It's hard to explain just how massive the yawning chasm between how those stuck in the westmisnter bubble perceive this Independence Referendum and a grass roots movement quite unlike anything scotland or indeed the UK has seen before. They simply do not get it and never will.

    For the No campaign to bang on and shriek dementedly about currency yet again, even after it has failed so spectacularly to do anything other than close the gap to a virtual dead heat, (under the most NO friendly pollster out there) is incredible, but not all that surprising.

    2011 was the precise same pattern. Before the 2011 landslide they had clearly learned nothing from a failing campaign and simply doubled down on the negativity and stupidity. They simply had nowhere else to go and utterly refused to believe the reports from the ground.

    Let's be clear though, 2011 was probably the most formidable piece of SNP party campaigning there has ever been. However, it simply cannot compare to the breadth, scope and diversity of the Yes grass roots movement. This is on another level completely. Those who still fail to comprehend that have no hope of ever understanding scottish politics and likely never will.

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  69. James,

    Presumably the IPSOS-MORI "pre debate" poll asserted to have been undertaken for STV brings more positive news for Scottish democracy and lousey news for NoScotland / NewLabourTory and hence will now be buried?

    Any information with regard to this?

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  70. What makes you believe that there was a poll? I had always understood that Ipsos Mori was only going to be publishing one poll in September - and that presumably will be on the eve of the 18th.

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  71. Ipsos Mori published a poll prior to the STV debate between Alex Salmond and Darling.

    It was widely asserted there would be a poll published prior to this debate.

    It appears there has either been no poll, or indeed the poll results were poor for the No Scotland campaign.

    FYI, Ipsos Mori have regular conducted Independence VI polls for the Westminster government since January, understood to be at a cost of c£500K to date from the public purse.

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    Replies
    1. If the UK Gov polls shared in any way with NO Campaign members [which they must be as ALL UK ministers members of registered No Parties] and same info not available to Yes, then I consider Electoral Commission rules to be worthless. Fundamentally un-democratic ( and would say the same had it been Scot Gov polls not shared with No )

      #PublishThePoll

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  72. Wonder how much MSM coverage this report on Atlantic margin oil and gas will get.

    Scottish West Coast untapped oil and gas reserves worth trillions


    Published in Oil Industry News on Wednesday, 3 September 2014


    Scotland could be sitting on more than double the amount of oil and gas reserves currently predicted, a new independent industry investigation has found. The investigation reveals that the scale of Scotland’s untapped frontier West Coast or Atlantic Margin has been underestimated.

    The investigation was undertaken by oilandgaspeople.com, the world’s largest oil and gas industry jobs board, and independent North Sea oil and gas industry experts. The investigation included interviews with industry experts and collated seismic and expert evidence from a range of independent sources such as the British Geological Survey, DECC, oil and gas companies, the Institute of Petroleum Engineering and the Energy Institute.

    http://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/1039/scottish-west-coast-untapped-oil-and-gas-reserves-worth-trillions/

    The findings show that the current predictions of extensive untapped reserves of oil and gas could be underestimated by 100%. The West Coast alone could provide oil and gas for at least 100 years with an estimated value of more than £1 trillion.

    My work contributed to it.

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  73. Ah well, either no poll or someone decided not to publish a bad un for No.

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  74. Reading the various comments, I'd hedge a bet that there was indeed a poll (recall talk of results being announced prior to debate as per STV's usual format), but this poll was grim news for Better Together, hence its been swept under the carpet.

    In 2011, Labour were still "well ahead" in the STV pre debate poll conducted by TNS. Ponsonby dwelled on it, going to great lengths. By the second debate c3weeks later, the figures were an almost exact reversal. Ponsonby quickly mentioned it only as a "by the way" issue, no doubt because TNS had actually published them on their website, putting the headline figures up immediately before the debate commenced!

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  75. I got polled by ipsos mori on monday night so they were active, whether it was specifically for STV I don't know.

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  76. There is going to be enough fantasy around if Yes wins so let's try and keep it to a minimum here. STV could not and would not commission a poll and then bury it. Not all of STV are No voters, are they? The only people who can bury polls are Yes or No themselves and there seems to be some certainty a YES poll was indeed buried in the last few days. But Yes have no need at all to bury a poll showing them level or in the lead--it is massive over-thinking to suppose otherwise. It wouldn't matter if later they fall back, it would be a HUGE moment. So we can only conclude what they got was not good enough.

    It has also been suggested here they are trying consistently and will publish when they get one that works for them. If this is so and they are commissioning many polls then eventually they will come up with an outlier that puts them level or ahead and feed it to the Herald but I am not sure, if true, this is particularly ethical.

    Certainly though the end of next week is the massive psychological moment. And that is when I see Murdoch and the Sun weighing in.

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  77. Congratulations scottish_skier.

    Scottish West Coast untapped oil and gas reserves worth trillions


    Published in Oil Industry News on Wednesday, 3 September 2014

    http://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/1039/scottish-west-coast-untapped-oil-and-gas-reserves-worth-trillions/


    It's going viral right now.

    We don't even need the McCrone report to tell us just how much we should trust out of touch westminster politicians and their laughable lackeys on this and every other subject.

    For those who still can't grasp the obvious, TRUST is at the very heart of this Independence Referendum and always was.

    Who do scots trust to look after the best interests of scotland and the scottish people?

    An independent scottish parliament or westminster?

    Those trapped in the westminster bubble still have no idea at all what they are dealing with. A massive Yes grass roots movement across all ages and all backgrounds utterly determined to get the truth out to their fellow scots. Ordinary scots who are actually taking their own future in their own hands and doing something about it.

    This while the No campaign dementedly shriek about Murphy's Eggpocalypse and currency. Hilariously they are producing yet more idiotic, patronising and vapid public relations posters after the PatronisingBTLady disaster.

    Wee Ginger Dug hits the nail on the head yet again with a wonderful article.


    http://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2014/09/03/sugar-coated-fluff-puffs-and-leaps-of-faith/

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  78. I seriously doubt that any poll has been buried. If there is a mystery poll out there, it's quite possible that it was a private poll commissioned by Better Together. We should remember that Better Together never release their own polls.

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  79. It's not actually true that Better Together have never published internal polls - although they've always withheld voting intention numbers, they have published bits of their YouGov polls. And it's always been YouGov - the fact that this one is Ipsos-Mori raises the possibility that this is another taxpayer-funded megapoll for the UK government.

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  80. Thanks for the clarification.

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  81. The last taxpayer funded No megapoll was almost certainly fed to 'better together' who then gave it to their incompetent PR drones and to 'polish' their message to the razor sharp cutting edge message that was..

    PatronisingBTLady.

    LOL

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  82. Stoat, you doubt any poll has been buried but But James said, when commenting on the absence of polls some days ago, he had clear evidence a Panelbase poll in the field and its questions strongly suggested it was commissioned by Yes. If so, it is surely likely as the days go on that it has been buried. The evidence for a No poll (he said) was less clear. I respect his accuracy on these things so I assume it is Yes who decided not to go ahead and leak it to the Herald. Unless that is the Panelbase polling is going on over a longer time and it pops up tomorrow or Friday.

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  83. Expat, you might find you are eating your words on Sunday.

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  84. Hmmm this copied from a post in Wings:

    "Carrell of The Guardian tweeted earlier that he reckons that YES are sitting on a Panelbase poll result with YES in the lead, waiting to release it for maximum impact.

    Would be nice if it were true, and it was released when Dave and his warmongering NATO pals are all having their chinwag.

    How humiliating would that be LOL"

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  85. Expat, I was referring to the Ipsos Mori poll not being buried (As opposed to private). I would concur on the existance of a Panelbase poll that hasn't been released.

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