Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Final YouGov poll puts Yes just 2% away from victory

YouGov's final word of the campaign is -

Yes 48% (n/c)
No 52% (n/c)

Meanwhile, there's a phone poll from Survation which shows that the Yes vote has crept up since the equivalent poll at the weekend -

Yes 47% (+1)
No 53% (-1)

I thought we were going to get a rare Scot Goes Pop exclusive tonight, because two different commenters seemed to have leaked the YouGov result several hours early on the previous thread.  But I'm very glad we didn't get the exclusive, because the numbers were less good than we ended up with.  It does mean that I pre-wrote an entire post on the assumption that the leak was correct, and now I'm going to have to cherry-pick the bits that still make sense!  I certainly thought that YouGov was going to be our only real clue before the end of the evening as to whether there had been any last-minute swing, because their fieldwork carried on a bit longer than either Panelbase or Ipsos-Mori. If that had been the case, the message would have been "no, there hasn't", because the sequence of results that YouGov have produced over the last three weeks looks fairly stable within the confines of the standard margin of error - 47, 51, 48, 48.  But now Survation have muddied the waters with yet another completely unexpected intervention, and with fieldwork that is more up-to-date than anyone else's - it took place entirely over the last 24 hours.

There shouldn't be any dismay at all that they've produced a slightly lower Yes vote than the phone polls we've had from ICM and Ipsos-Mori, because different methodologies produce different results (as we know in this campaign of all campaigns).  It is absolutely correct to compare this poll solely with the last Survation phone poll, and doing so paints a good news story for Yes - there has been a pro-Yes swing since the weekend, albeit well within the margin of error.  There is certainly no evidence there of any last-minute swing to No.  My only slight doubt is due to the fact that the previous Survation phone poll was commissioned by the No campaign, who seemingly only made the decision to publish at the very last minute for tactical reasons.  So we can't entirely exclude the possibility that the No campaign have commissioned several Survation phone polls, and withheld all the others because they were better for Yes - in which case the trend in tonight's poll obviously wouldn't be quite so good.  But that's just wild speculation, and there's no point worrying about something that is utterly unknowable at this stage.

Unless we get any more surprise polls at a few minutes' notice, the last clue as to whether there has been any late swing will come in one further Ipsos-Mori poll, which is rather disrespectfully being published tomorrow morning while people are in the middle of voting.  But obviously 'clue' is the operative word, because unless there's a very big shift from today's poll conducted by the same firm, any change could just as easily be a margin of error illusion.  If we can dodge that bullet and convince ourselves there has been no late swing to No, then it seems to me the scenario for reconciling the polls with our hopes for a Yes victory would be as follows -

1) That phone polling is more reliable than online polling.

2) That ICM, with their "gold standard" reputation, are the most accurate phone pollster.

Both of the above held true in the AV referendum - there's certainly no guarantee that they will again, but it's an encouraging thought.  Under that scenario, it's perfectly credible to believe that Yes are at the higher end of the range that the polls are suggesting, ie. 49% - because that is what ICM showed in their only phone poll of the campaign.  If so, the race is close enough to be decided one way or the other by the ground operation tomorrow.

Alternatively, the polls could be structurally wrong, just as they were in 1992, in which case all bets are off.  But remember, it's completely 50/50 as to whether that would be a good thing for Yes or a good thing for No.

Basically, the outcome is unknowable.  And at the end of a long campaign that has seen voters being constantly bullied by having one-sided polls shoved in their faces, we should probably regard that as a truly wonderful destination to have arrived at, however scary it might feel.

110 comments:

  1. I was concerned YouGov was going to try and unnerve the Yes Camp with a low Yes figure. Glad it's in line with every other poll.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I heard it was 70 % yes but that is a secret

    ReplyDelete
  3. theres a surprise :-)

    ReplyDelete
  4. Any word on the number of undecideds?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Robert, West LothianSeptember 17, 2014 at 10:09 PM

    What the hang is it with all these polls?. Surely that has to be it now and we can just get out and vote. Coincidence that they have all just converged at the same time to save face?

    ReplyDelete
  6. So with undecideds it is

    DK 6%, 45% YES and 49% NO.

    UNCHANGED since last poll.

    The concern troll was just that.

    Statistical dead heat.

    GOTV is all that matters now.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Well James I watched the Livestream from Glasgow which started at 2pm and carried on until 9pm anyway with a packed George square, these pollsters are going to have red faces on Friday.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Yeah I agree with Robert, it's pretty remarkable that all the polls are converging on 48% (exception of Survation). Do you think they are being cautious at this point?

    ReplyDelete
  9. George : I'm not sure he was a troll - it had the ring of truth about it. Perhaps he'd just been given false information.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Of course, overall slightly disappointed we aren't ahead, but, we are within the margin of error plus all the admissions from ICM's head honcho and Kellner saying he today that although he thinks No are ahead, he's not 100% sure.

    This is GAME ON, folks!

    It's all about getting out the vote.

    Let's go out tomorrow and do it!

    ReplyDelete
  11. Also, regarding GOTV, is the Yes Camp pretty secure in its planning for it? I spoke to a guy who runs one of the Yes shops in the west end of Glasgow this evening and he said that GOTV is run nationally by the Gov/Yes Camp. Is that true?

    ReplyDelete
  12. I think the methodology is missing around 3% of the vote which is voting Yes. Shy Yes, missing million, whatever.

    I look at these scenes from around the country and I can't believe they're a prelude to a No.

    ReplyDelete
  13. @ Rolfe

    Is the missing million only worth 3 percent?

    ReplyDelete
  14. @Robert, "Coincidence that they have all just converged at the same time to save face?"

    My guess is that if the voter poll was the 2.8 million from 2010, the vote would pan out 48/52.

    But thankfully thats not the pool in 2014.

    NO literally bet the farm on old peoples votes but thats a finite voting resources. They were already registered and vote at every election.

    YES has bet the farm on the "missing million" which I am confident is not a myth, except that I think its actually the missing 800k or 900k.

    Assuming the RICS August voting canvas holds up on newly reg voters and we get the mission million to the polls, then YES will win.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Jesus Chirst! Scotland 2014's reporter announced John Curtice as "the most respected polling opinion worldwide" hahahha

    ReplyDelete
  16. @James "Perhaps he'd just been given false information."

    Maybe, I just have this "thing" about leaked information and ask WHY?

    ReplyDelete
  17. GOTV. I'm in a village where there is no reliable canvassing information, only a very partial list of probable Yes voters. We simply didn't have the manpower to do that and get the leaflets out. It never occurred to me that we'd be actively knocking up.

    Nevertheless we've been issued with that list, and instructions about when to ask for voter numbers at the polling stations, and times to try to contact them and check that they've voted.

    We've NEVER done that here. Not in Westminster, Holyrood, Council or Euro elections. Looks like we're giving it our best shot tomorrow. That's how serious Yes Scotland is about this.

    ReplyDelete
  18. I have also heard, anecdotally, that the bookies are refusing to take bets on 60+% for Yes @16/1. Which IMO means they haven't a clue.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Almost all my life independence has been dismissed as the concern of a "tiny" 30% or so. A year ago I thought we'd do well to get 40%. Look at us now! It's there to be won folks!

    ReplyDelete
  20. FitzyMan, don't pay too much attention to what wasn't a mathematical deduction. I just have trouble believing the polls are more than about 3% out. I could be completely wrong about that.

    ReplyDelete
  21. This is so strange, we are going into the referendum with every poll bar just possibly one saying exactly the same thing. (Or more or less exactly). Given the margin of error surely you would expect just a bit more standard variation, a 50/50 here, a Yes 51 No 49 there.

    Also George you mentioned Obama V Romney but the the general polling picture (not the ground game of course) is surely more like Obama being No and Romney Yes. I checked and most polls of the popular vote in that election had Obama ahead by around 1% at this stage. Very much in No's rough position. RCM 's poll of polls had him ahead by 0.7% I think.

    So, while I accept the YES ground game is much more like Obama the polls are not at all the same.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Kellner shat himself and produced the same poll as everybody else.

    Which should be impossible as he is using his own special methodology.

    If he is right then everybody else is wrong but they are showing the same result. Which is a logical impossibility. So all the polls must therefore be wrong.

    Vote Yes and ban opinion Polls in Scotia Libre!

    ReplyDelete
  23. @ Kevin

    Stop sniggering The BBC knows best or so they keep telling us.

    ReplyDelete
  24. "ban opinion Polls in Scotia Libre"

    On that point I'm inclined to agree. The polls have done a terrible amount of harm in this campaign.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Is it possible for the polsters methods to be correct as there are so many people with no history of voting. And the with the huge turnout.

      Delete
  25. @Fitzyman, "only worth 3%?"

    Thats the million pound lottery question.

    If voter turnout is at 80% and comparing to 2010, its the missing 890,000.

    The question is who are they?

    Are they old people? Doubtful, old people are "always" on the roll and vote in every election.

    Are they middle class ABC1 voters? Doubtful, they need to be on the roll for credit purposes.

    Are they young? Yes

    Are they likely C2DE? I think thats most of them, just a hunch.

    I guess RICS has been registering the disenfranchised for the last couple years and in August did a canvas;

    http://radicalindependence.org/2014/08/19/radical-independence-campaign-18k-canvass-sample-released/

    The breakdown amongst these is 63/37, in favor YES.

    The YES Campaign has publicly stated their data indicates they will get 53-57%.

    Guess what? If you apply the final poll numbers to the 2010 voting pool, then apply the RICS canvas to the missing 800,000 you tie into the YES campaign final figure.

    I find it difficult to believe that disenfranchised voters would vote for the status quo, no way.

    Could this reverse engineering be way off, absolutely.

    But if the GOTV is based on what was published in the Guardian, and those are real on the ground numbers with vans taking people to the polls, the YES will win.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/17/scottish-independence-activists-voters-referendum

    ReplyDelete
  26. First time poster, long time lurker - James - on the whole I think you've done a tremendous amount of good. Well done, and I hope it's goes well tomorrow/Fri morn.

    ReplyDelete
  27. As the don't know group is shrinking substantially, presumably there is less scope for that theory of undecided voters reverting to status quo at the last minute to hurt us.

    I'm putting my hopes on the poles being slightly unrepresentative due to newly registered people not being picked up in poles and also the final push from our people on the ground.

    ReplyDelete
  28. A 22% lead cut to 2% means there is everything to play for tomorrow, and that is some achievement.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Yes its just a hunch. With the poor weighting in most polls. I reckon its actually 50\50. Its down to don't knows and missing 800k I reckon we will take 75% of them.

    ReplyDelete
  30. James, is there much value in the idea of newly registered people not being represented in polls at this stage?

    ReplyDelete
  31. I know the yes planning for this is good. Very organised to get their votes out. No have a massive problem getting their vote out.

    ReplyDelete
  32. @expat, I am focused on individual states because thats the only way to compare a US election to a UK wide election.

    My example is Florida. The RCP average was Romney by 1.5 and Obama won by 1%.

    The Romney ground game was all high paid "professionals" from "out of town" not locals.

    In my mind, RICS, YES, the SNP, Labour for Independence are all very local GOTV. They also worked on registering new and disenfranchised voters just like Obama.

    Romney resembles the Westminster Bubble coming "North" to save Scotland.

    Hope that makes sense.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Yes I'd like to hear James' opinion on the "missing million" question.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Could bad weather in one city and good weather in another on the day not make a difference?

    Say if it is sunny in Glasgow and raining in Aberdeen?

    People would be more/less likely to just stay in.

    ReplyDelete
  35. No at 49 and Yes at 45? If this were the situation in real life, No would most certainly clinch it - less work required to reach 50%+1. Its like starting an 800m race with a head start of about 600m.

    I know these things are subject to error but it cuts both ways. No could be higher, Yes could be lower...

    I think the game's up for Yes. Of course, anything is possible but if you lose you can console yourselves that you were instrumental in getting devo max.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Expat, Obama was .7% ahead but won by 4%. If GOTV has that effect here it's a dead heat!

    ReplyDelete
  37. Let's hope the population of the Lothians disappears into another dimension for the day like in the Langoliers.

    ReplyDelete
  38. It looking neck and neck - pollsters all coming to almost exactly the same conclusion can't be a coincidence!

    Friday Morning is going to be incredible!

    ReplyDelete
  39. Let's hope the true unionist heart of Scotland disappears forever.

    Yes to Scotland. No to Glasgow!

    ReplyDelete
  40. @Rolfe "We've NEVER done that here. Not in Westminster, Holyrood, Council or Euro elections. Looks like we're giving it our best shot tomorrow. That's how serious Yes Scotland is about this."

    You put a smile on my face, really.

    This is a team effort and you physically getting those YES votes to the polls makes a BIG difference.

    I laughed at the concept in 1992 but saw it work first hand and up close with Clinton.

    But the bigger question, is NO that organized, do they have the local tonight that knows the streets and is able/willing to get their votes to the polls?

    NO smells too much like Westminster with Eton educated Torries and New Labour. Those guys are too posh to think street smart.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Of course we're assuming these opinion polls mean anything. I personally don't see how polling even 3200 folk is representative of the 3.3-3.6 million people who may turn out to vote tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  42. @Anon
    No one has offered devo max, and even what they've offered has no chance of getting through parliament.

    ReplyDelete
  43. There is the 'Chance To Make History' aspect.

    It's basically about being a region or a nation.

    I think enough people will decide to say: Screw it - let's do it !

    I will be wearing my YES badge, and trying to encourage people next to me in the line, and I hope others do likewise.

    We can do it !!

    ReplyDelete
  44. James,

    I'd like to know what you think about the missing million theory or those 300,000 newly registered.

    I think Curtice said he was skeptical. Is that because polls do actually pick these people up?

    ReplyDelete
  45. @chalke, "No have a massive problem getting their vote out."

    Wait a second, who exactly is their vote?

    The old people have been registered and voting for twenty years. They have already postal voted. That wad is shot.

    ABC1 is their vote and they will drive themselves to vote.

    So whom do they need to find and get to the polls?

    YES has a whole field of grain to harvest in C2DE streets, not NO.

    ReplyDelete
  46. @chalks

    Why does No have a problem getting their vote out? Apparently, all polls show that almost everybody is willing to participate. How does that correlate with No having problems with getting people out to vote?

    ReplyDelete
  47. Long time reader James. Well done on your coverage, I found it honest, consistent and refreshing. Good luck to you all tomorrow. Historic day for this part of the world irrespective of the result.
    P.S. shout out to Scottish Skier and to George from the usa for their coverage in comments

    ReplyDelete
  48. It may be wishful thinking (nothing wrong with that at this stage), but I've always thought there might be something to the above comment. That is, when people get into the booth, away from the all noise and confusion, and *see* the question, it might have an emotional sway on one or two. Perhaps not. Not long to find out now!

    ReplyDelete
  49. In reality what has been achieved with this late surge is a Win-Win situation for Alex Salmond. That panic move to promise more powers is an enormous mistake by the Westminster leaders.

    ReplyDelete
  50. @Callum
    It will also cause some of them to bottle it.

    ReplyDelete
  51. re anon at 10:52 - this is absolutely correct. Even a relatively comfortable no vote tomorrow (say 55-45) the SNP would be able to argue that it was the more powers pledge that swung it.

    If the UK parties then don't follow through, the SNP would be able to argue that the electorate was conned. Even the hostile mainstream media would be unable to deny that. Some of their endorsements (e.g.1 SoS, e.g.2 The Herald) were based on the contingency that no will lead to a federal system of some description.

    ReplyDelete
  52. Two more things and then bed for tonight:

    Firstly, well done James for this amazing blog. Serious and analytical without losing your fervour for the cause. It's a real intellectual achievement, so congrats.

    Secondly, our country will become independent. It's inevitable. Whether tomorrow or some time when we're all a bit older and wiser. The supporters of the Union in this country are, sadly, passing on and a new generation is coming behind them, bold and fearless and ready to seize the day.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Following reasons Xabi:

    1) Perceived as in the bag, many will not bother
    2) If there are such a thing as shy no, that also manifests itself in other pyschological ways, i.e. ashamed to vote no as well as an inclination to just 'Duck out' out of it

    I do not necessarily believe in the shy no theory,as skier says,where was it before? But the 2nd reason holds out for any scots born no voter.

    Then there is also the private moment in the booth. Whereby they have dragged themselves to the polling booth and the words of one opportunity ringing in their eyes.....would they do it? I don't know if they would vote no. Not with the public displays of affection for Scotland all over the place.

    ReplyDelete
  54. O/T but every vote counts and there’s one available if we can get 21 more people to vote in the following onlline poll. A Wrexham FC (the oldest football club in Wales and the 3rd oldest in the world) fan from Scotland has put a referendum poll on our fans website – Red Passion www.redpassion.co.uk (its in the “Off Topic Chat” section; there’s also a separate thread with a general referendum discussion). He will cast his vote on the 18th for whoever wins the poll. At the moment “no” is winning by 20 votes and the poll closes in an hours time, so we need some help . Registering for the website is easy, you just need an e-mail address and to agree to the terms and conditions.

    ReplyDelete
  55. @Anon at 10:56
    The SoS and Herald will just ignore the issue, and the SNP can shout all they like that the electorate was conned. No one will listen, and Scots' only vehicle for doing anything about it will be gone forever.

    What are we going to do? Vote SNP at Westminster? And risk the Tories getting in? Ha ha, I don't think so.

    I think the single most damaging popular belief in this campaign has been the idea that a Yes vote is more "permanent" than a No. A lot of people will vote No thinking that we can always try again in a few years if we don't get what was promised.

    There is no chance of another referendum. This one was only permitted because the UK Government was sure they would win. After the fright they've had in the last month, they would be absolutely insane to take such a risk again.

    If it's a No, we are fucked. For all time.

    If I encounter any waverers on the doors tomorrow, that's the point I'll be making to them.

    ReplyDelete
  56. In slightly less profane terms, of course.

    ReplyDelete
  57. All I want to know is this: is there a possibility, any possibility that yes will take the day? When it's down to brass tacks- is it possible? Or are we just a little bit behind?

    ReplyDelete
  58. Of course it's bloody possible. Get out there and help make it happen.

    ReplyDelete
  59. Just something to look at on polling.

    How did the polling organizations do in 2011?

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/holyrood-election-2011-result-on-a-knife-1102129

    and


    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Scottish_Parliament_election,_2011

    You know what? Peter Kellner does not walk on water, he can not part the Clyde and he really puts his trousers on in the morning the same way you and I do.

    The polls in 2011 were CORRECT within the overall margin of error. Its just that the members of Parliament are not quite what Youguv and others figured.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Thank you James for this analysis of the polls over the last few months I discovered your blog. You kept me sane.

    I don't know what is on the cards tomorrow. I don't know anyone does.

    But thank you. And lest hope its a Yes.

    ReplyDelete
  61. @Anon at 11.10
    What a strange question. Of course it's possible.

    No one here knows for certain if we're just a little bit behind or not. You can see the polls as well as we can.

    ReplyDelete
  62. Sky political editor has just cottoned onto the RIC buses and canvassing returns...says things might not be as they seem. I tend to agree.

    ReplyDelete
  63. A more relevant comparison is perhaps the AV Referendum in 2011 - was 67.9 No v 32.1 Yes

    ICM and ComRes were close 966 and 68% no) but none of the others that have been polling on the Scottish Vote (YouGov, TNS) were way out.

    As has been said its much much harder to predict a referendum than an Election.

    ReplyDelete
  64. There will be NO more powers of any significance. Scotland will be extinguished.
    Vote Yes, make history. Vote no make Scotland history.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Chalks, could you explain that please? Not sure what you mean.

    ReplyDelete
  66. @Anonymouse "All I want to know is this: is there a possibility, any possibility that yes will take the day? When it's down to brass tacks- is it possible? Or are we just a little bit behind? "

    I was a Democrat activist in the USA for many years. I am a Scot (British), long story....back in the UK.

    YES is in the game!!!

    No one trained as a statistician will claim that this is anything other than a dead heat.

    The polls because of margin of error show this is a 50/50 race.

    I urge you to look at the polling links for 2011, the polls are not, repeat NOT, tablets of stone from above!!

    If YES physically contacts its voter lists on Thursday, and gets them physically to the polls, then YES is going to win...period.

    The people in the back room of NO are not comfortable this evening!! I have been in political backrooms for twenty years.

    NO is not going to be happy with these dead heat polls, they wanted and needed a head start thursday morning.

    I am very confident because I can not figure out who the new/fresh voters NO are going to mine/extract of the surge in voting registration.

    NO has built its campaign on old people, middle class homeowners and dyed red Labour voters. Thats a finite number.

    There are no disnefranchised old people.

    There is no disenfranchised middle class homeowners.

    Formerly non-voting C2DE do not give a rats ass for a Westminster government filled with Oxbridge graduates!!

    IF YES in fact has 35,000 local volunteer activists who will be working all day on Thursday physically getting the vote out and yes that means driving people, then YES will win.

    ReplyDelete
  67. Robert, West LothianSeptember 17, 2014 at 11:27 PM

    Just to add my thanks to James for his excellent analyses over the piece. Its been enlightening, informative and also a spirit raiser when some disappointing polls seemed on the surface to have knackered the Yes cause.
    We can now realistically believe. Just one or two more pushes can take us to victory. It can be done.

    ReplyDelete
  68. @Chalkes "Sky political editor has just cottoned onto the RIC buses and canvassing returns."

    Praise be!!!

    I have read and heard good things about RICS, YES, Labour for Independence and I am well aware of the SNP as a "headquarters branch member" not living in Scotland.

    But.......I am haunted about what was discovered about the Romney GOTV which was all smoke and mirrors.

    It sounds like a typical Democrat campaign targeting inner city new voters.

    If they really have buses and voter lists and solid canvas work, no smoke and mirrors with high paid consultants and posh university students, then this is going to make it.

    ReplyDelete
  69. George - Yes has.

    And it's local people. Here, between our small group, we know EXACTLY where every house is and we can go straight there is necessary. And that's not from a central database but from living here plus the work I did over the winter collating the OS map, Google streetview and a recent electoral register. Refined while actually out there delivering the Yes newspapers.

    I'm not persuaded No have even fixed the problem Labour had in 2008 when they found their database wasn't set up to cope with the Scottish numbering system for tenement flats.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Yes has - I meant the 35,000 local volunteers. Definitely.

    I know the RIC campaign is for real, and well organised. One day, in a scunner with this Tory No-voting area, I suggested to our wee group that maybe the best use of our time would be to drive to Glasgow and help them! But we kept labouring here, because we don't want the embarrassment of the Borders turning in a 30% or less Yes vote.

    The RIC and Wings (WBB) are what will give us the edge and win it for us.

    ReplyDelete
  71. I said a long long time ago on this blog, I'm kinda No but will not be disappointed if it's Yes. I'm still there.

    But it's been a hell of a campaign. So good to see real people, the genuine grassroots, make their voices heard.

    Go out tomorrow, work until you drop, and you can actually do it you crazy Yessers!

    Good luck.

    Hugh.

    ReplyDelete
  72. What's all this RIC thing?

    ReplyDelete
  73. The Radical Independence Campaign. Google them.

    ReplyDelete
  74. @Billyfife, "Is it possible for the polsters methods to be correct as there are so many people with no history of voting. And the with the huge turnout."

    Lets answer your question by using the Ipso-Mori Poll, No campaign is on 49%, Yes on 47% and Don't Know at five per cent.

    The margin of error is 3%.

    If YES gets 55%, guess what that poll was CORRECT!!!

    The pollster will explain that correctly identified the 47%, they will explain the dont know broke fully to YES and there is a 3% MOE.

    ReplyDelete
  75. @Rolfe, I have a smile on my face, I think you guys got it and you did it organically.

    When I came home to the UK, I purposely stayed out of politics as I really need to do a political detox. There had been a draw to come up north to help out, anyways having this long distance look has warmed my heart.

    Work hard on Thursday all day, keep everyones spirits positive, keep smiling every minute and every hour.

    There are no guarantees in life or politics but I can say that the back rooms of NO are having fears, worries and panics just like YES is having.

    The Westminster Oxbridge elite came North to fix the problem and they did not finish the task, they know it.

    ReplyDelete
  76. It is VERY possible for YES to win with these figures.

    The PoliticalBetting Website say it is too close to call.

    No-one knows if the pollsters are getting their weightings correct, due to unprecedented situation.

    Huge turnout expected, and many groups are under/over represented in surveys.

    It will be close, but if YES can Get Out The Vote, they can do it..

    ReplyDelete
  77. "The PoliticalBetting Website say it is too close to call."

    Oh God, I was feeling hopeful until I read that!

    ReplyDelete
  78. First I'd also like to thank James for all the work he's put into delivering reliable analysis.

    Second I'd like to draw attention to the article below by Ben Thomson of Devo Plus on Monday. In it he draws attention to the fact that Labour have been given the initiative on offering new powers and a fake timetable (fake because the UK general election means there isn't enough time for any bill to be produced).

    He draws out the implication of this which is that if there is to be some kind of consensus between the UK parties on a set of new powers, then this Labour leadership bodes ill for Scotland because consensus based on Labour's proposals would be the worse outcome for Scotland.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Here is the link to Thomson's article which I forgot to include.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/15/devo-plus-yes-vote-unionists-devolution-independent-scotland

    ReplyDelete
  80. For last minute encoragement to show pollsters are simply flawed human beings. Look at the 2011 AV election results and polling. Notice that Yougov missed the target;

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum,_2011#Polling

    ReplyDelete
  81. Alea jacta est, people.

    It has been a great campaign. Now get out the vote.

    ReplyDelete
  82. By the way, my friends, "The Future Model of Europe" is in our hands:

    http://www.elpais.com/hemeroteca/elpais/portadas/2014/09/18/

    ReplyDelete
  83. @James, you may find this interesting;

    http://blog.majesticseo.com/research/scottish-election-poll/

    ReplyDelete
  84. A note of appreciation for the core contributors to this blog. Living on the isle of lewis, I don't know you, you don't know me, but you've become my pals over the last few months.

    64 years old and for most of them have pined to live in a full democracy. It finally is about to happen. The newly registered, combined with pollsters' lack of previous identical events to formulate reliable modelling on, makes anything between 50-54% Y entirely feasible.
    If my reading of the main protagonists' body language - I've watched an obscene quantity of TV this last 48 hours - is saying anything to me, it is that it is the "underdogs" are the ones who are clearly showing the confidence signals.
    I am optimistic that history is about to be made. Even if folk like Neil Oliver, on News night tonight, appear to greet such a prospect with a sour face. Nicola Sturgeon was magnificent in her speech in Perth tonight. Better than the FM, in fact. At moments, the emotion was very visible. She deserves a long lie this weekend. She has sure earned it. AS finished with "Let's do this now." It really is do-able - tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  85. Political Racism? Stormfront Lite says it's too close to call?

    They've changed their treasured hopes of Scotland getting the dockside hooker treatment. 80/20 was one of the more sensible statements from that gang of UKIP tosswanks!

    ReplyDelete
  86. Forget the polls. This feels like a Yes win. It will be a Yes win.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Looks like Andy Murray was a 'Shy Yes'. He has tweeted supportively!


    https://twitter.com/andy_murray/status/512392618077323264

    ReplyDelete
  88. Just what I was about to say.

    I've felt this for a long time, but my head kept saying, caution, look at the polls, worry. In spite of that my heart kept whispering, Scotland will win.

    Tonight I know it. The crowds in the town squares know it. The voters feel it. Andy Murray feels it too (well he's come out for Yes anyway). This is our moment in history. We can't lose.

    ReplyDelete
  89. (That last was to Stickers, of course.)

    ReplyDelete
  90. Walking about Glasgow tonight was instructive. A tale of two campaigns.

    I stopped by the one group of No activists (up against 3-4 Yes groups) on Buchanan St intending to ask some questions. One was talking to a group of Asian women. I overheard her say 'If we vote for independence you will lose your British passports and be given Scottish passports instead'. This is of course a lie, we cannot be stripped of British citizenship against our will if there is a Yes vote.

    I spoke up to protest that this was a lie and challenged the co-ordinator to correct it. He refused to do so, saying 'You correct it if you want' and 'I'm just a volunteer, it's not my job to correct her'. However he also refused to repeat the lie, weaselling 'I would rephrase that statement: if you want a British passport you should support British institutions'.

    I told them both they should be ashamed of themselves. Fortunately the Asian women from the few words they said to me looked like they were not buying it.

    Walk away feeling deeply angry. Then I come upon the party in George Square. Magic. Yes people everywhere. This does not feel like a city about to vote No.

    I was never a nationalist, I don't unequivocally see myself as Scottish or see being Scottish as somehow 'different'. However, I'm in no doubt about my vote tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  91. less than 5 hours before we vote to get our country back!

    ReplyDelete
  92. Another straw in the wind. An acquaintance posted predictions on FB for the result in each region. This guy is an English Labour activist who came up here for the last week to help out the No campaign. I noticed that he was calling City of Edinburgh a Yes, but Glasgow a No.

    I queried this rather strange set of predictions and was told that they were based on Labour's internal numbers, and his own experience of travelling around Scotland.

    I ask myself this: is Edinburgh really going to vote Yes while Glasgow votes No?

    Or are Labour's internal numbers total crap?

    ReplyDelete
  93. What do you think? You get three guesses, and the first two don't count.

    ReplyDelete
  94. Patrick Wintour @patrickwintour · 14h

    Cameron at Downing Street party says "after the events I have been facing over the last few days assassination would be a welcome release".

    ReplyDelete
  95. Andy Murray statement on twitter is a great boost.

    Too late for the papers, but will be all over facebook tomorrow.

    Carefully worded, but no doubt as to the sentiment.

    ReplyDelete
  96. We ALL knew Andy Murray was a true Scots patriot, not like those phoney ''patriotic '' Scots of the Bitter Together Campaign who want their country governed by London. But he had to be careful what he said because of the vitriol of the London press and media.

    ''Huge day for Scotland today! no campaign negativity last few days totally swayed my view on it. excited to see the outcome. lets do this! ''

    https://twitter.com/andy_murray

    ReplyDelete
  97. I would just like to post a big heartfelt THANK-YOU to James for all his hard work in producing this wonderful and informative blog! A big thanks to to all the other posters too. Even the trolls have added some additional spice and humour!

    ReplyDelete
  98. This is the first comment I've left on this blog and I too would like to thank James for making psephology accessible and compelling :)

    ReplyDelete
  99. Thanks from me too James. I'm a bit of a late arrival on here, but it has been a fantastic way of keeping up to date with what's happening back home. If only Australian politics were this exciting, but sadly they are as dull as dishwater. Mind you, I don't think my ticker could handle a referendum like this one every day! I'm a complete nervous wreck :-( You've done Scotland proud James. Thanks once again.

    ReplyDelete
  100. ps (O/T) Can't wait for Scotland's first Eurovision entry, Vienna 2015. Michelle McManus anyone?

    ReplyDelete
  101. Just to add my thanks to you James, you have done more to keep me 'sane' (ish) than you will ever know!

    It was reported last week that Labours canvasing stats had them predicting a 54% No vote in Dundee!!!

    The way I see this is, as I drive around Dundee I see Flags & banners on cars and in windows at a ratio of about 98/2 in favour of Yes.

    Now I don't expect Dundee's Yes vote to be 98%, but I do wonder what the psychology of voters is that leads the Yes voter to display their support openly but no to keep their support for No quiet.

    It should be borne in mind that we have all saw incidents of vandalism against Yes vehicles/premises, but still the people keep displaying their support.

    It seems to me that people who do this will certainly get out and vote.

    But does this mean there is just a shy No vote?

    I don't think the word 'shy' explains it, I think the word ashamed or embarrassed explains their feelings better.

    My reasons for this is simple, In listening to conversations it is telling how hard No campaigners/voters and leaders will justify themselves by stating that they are proud Scots but... or it's not that I'm against independence it's just that I think 'Now is not the best time'

    Anyone involved in the campaign will have heard this 9 and more)repeatedly.

    As someone who's profession has been in mental health, I find this very telling because it shows clearly that people who are No voters are not comfortable with themselves and feel that their own personal interests are in contrast to the interests of their nation and fellow citizens.

    If you have been on twitter as I have you will have saw so many (hundreds) of people saying that they had been No up until the past week/fortnight, but have now 'Thought about it' and decided to vote Yes.

    These people for the most part, when they say they have thought about it, are telling us something important. you see they are not thinking about it for the first time or else they would not have been NO voters, what is happening is they have had this internal contradiction like most No's but have perhaps had an incident (Cameron Visit) or perhaps they have had a conversation that has brought home to them that a No vote will damage a friend relative, and this has tipped them to Yes.

    My belief is that for every person who is switching from No to Yes there will also be one or two No voters who will simply not vote, as they will not be able to deal with the internal conflict of voting against Scotland.

    So my advice is get yourself down to Lidl or Aldi and order your carry out because we are gona be having a party on Friday.



    ReplyDelete
  102. @Patrick Roden, thanks for that thoughtful analysis. And for politics...it does seem more real than smoke.

    ReplyDelete
  103. Pipers walking people to the polling stations in Edinburgh

    So my sister and colleague are telling me?

    ReplyDelete
  104. Polling convergence is herd instinct in action.

    Kellner taked with BBC local radio in England yesterday: admitted it could be a Waterloo for polling co.s; I genuinely felt he really did not know and was worried that incorrect weighting; late switchers and missing groupings could easily be sufficient to make them look stupid as either side may be much higher than predicted. He also claimed they had 40,000 Scots residents on their books - much higher than I expected.

    ReplyDelete
  105. Ha, just read a tweet from a guy who said his father (a No voter)had just told him he had voted Yes

    He told his son he had hovered his pencil over the No box, "BUT IT JUDT DIDN'T FEEL RIGHT" so he voted YES!!!

    This is happening all over Scotland today, because voting No just isn't right!

    ReplyDelete
  106. @ Gordon Innes,

    Don't be surprised, as YouGov is a polling company that will participate in any number of polls, some if not most of them non political.

    They will need people from all walks of life to comment on different areas of interest, as it's pointless asking people who never go overseas on holiday, what airline they prefer etc.

    The people they choose to participate in their polls will be the ones who have indicated an interest in doing political polling.

    ReplyDelete
  107. James

    Keep up the good work. I have donated and will do so again. I admire your commitment to a free press, even to the extent of allowing obnoxious characters to disparage you so often. Don't let them get to you and remember there are far more of us than there are of them.

    ReplyDelete