Friday, September 19, 2014

And now for the good news...

The No campaign have failed to deliver on their boasts of a few hours ago that they were heading for a victory margin of 58/42, or possibly 60/40, or even greater. The BBC are in fact predicting a result of 55/45 (some would say that they authored that result as well as predicting it, but that's an argument for another day). As Murdo Fraser himself said, once the relief wears off, the London establishment will know that's a far, far tighter outcome than they could have originally expected or possibly feel comfortable with. If the Yes vote had been several points lower, and in particular if they had failed to win the symbolic prize of Glasgow, the long-term aim of another referendum in 12-20 years might not have seemed credible. As it is, we have a result that is much narrower than the 1980 Quebec referendum, which as we all know was followed by a very-nearly-successful second attempt just fifteen years later.

That's a consolation for us, but it's also a long-term threat for London, and that's the one reason for thinking we might possibly get some traction in the push for more powers. It's going to be a hell of a hard slog, though, and I think much will depend on whether the SNP can at least make some kind of breakthrough on 'away soil' in the UK general election that is just a few short months away.

One thing that intrigues me is whether the Greens will continue to support independence as a long-term goal, or will argue that the matter has been permanently settled. Although I'm not exactly James Mackenzie's greatest fan, I've been encouraged to see him make a number of comments along the lines of "if not now, next time", and hopefully that sentiment will be shared by many of his colleagues.

Although I'm finding this result as difficult to come to terms with as anyone, I'm hoping to carry on with Scot Goes Pop until at least the general election. The money from the fundraiser won't last for much longer, though, so realistically I'd have to run another one. I don't want to try anyone's patience by doing it too soon, but on the other hand I would probably be foolish to leave it too long, because the blog's readership is bound to drop sharply as interest in the referendum subsides. I'm happy to take advice on what the most sensible timing would be.

In the meantime, we can all take pride in a 45% Yes vote that once upon a time was supposed to be impossible. In a long-term sense, the dream lives on.

142 comments:

  1. I think this is all just noise.

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  2. Never has a truer word been spoken by a No troll.

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  3. James, thank yo so very much for your essential commentary over the last few years. You are a legend. Not sure what I'm going to do without your commentary on the campaign.

    However.....

    We got humped. There is no positive news.

    That's it. Gutted...

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  4. If you want to know what "humped" really looks like, try the AV referendum!

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  5. At least you haven't cut and run like Rev Stu!

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  6. We were defeated. Mine and I'm sure many other Scots views on their nationality have been smashed to bits.

    To be quite frank, I'm not sure who I am any more. At a push I'd guess "European"? But that might not be an option in a year or so.

    Regardless, I'd describe your work over the last few years as "good", excellent in fact. To title a blog post as "And now for the good news..."? Nope. I must disagree. No new good news on the horizon as far as I'm concerned.

    Thank you, once again. I just pray I'm proved wrong.

    Thank you,

    Jonny

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  7. We got robbed. A vote that was neither free nor fair and would make Mugabe blush.

    North Korean levels of state control and propaganda. Paid for by our taxes. Hate campaigns whipped up by the racists of Labour and their useful idiots.

    Of course proudScotbuts don't care. All they wanted was a NO and they couldn't give a flying fuck what happens to Scotland now.

    The enemy within, traitors and quislings to the last maggot.

    Labour in Scotland. Hitlers little helpers for the modern age.


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  8. Can't see much appetite for a fundraiser tbh...we're done here. :/

    Alan

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  9. Alan : Well, if that's the general view then I'll close the blog, but I'll wait to hear what others say.

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  10. Thanks James for all your work.

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  11. FPT: As some of my thoughts mirror James.

    I have worked tirelessly to secure a Yes vote. I have campaigned on the streets and on the doorsteps for two years. Yet I am perfectly calm and absolutely focused even now when No look like having won this.

    Why?

    Because I feel nothing but pride for what I and my fellow Yes campaigners have done. I can hold my head up high and know I was on the side of hope against fear.

    Nothing will be the same again. Simple as that. You cannot put Independence back in a box now. It's far too late for that.

    Anyone expecting me or many of my fellow Yes campaigners to break down in despair simply do not understand how we got here in the first place or the kind of determination and firm resolve we have to change scotland for the better. This will no more be an end to Independence than devolution killed the SNP "stone dead".

    We will study these results and learn from them. Refocus and rebuild where we need to. Those who doubt that know nothing about how and why the SNP won first a minority administration then a landslide.


    We did it before and we can and will do it again. The absurd idea (and I've heard it from labour friendly pundit Curtice) that all Labour needs to do is run a better campaign from 2016 on is laughable nonsense.

    Anyone watching the blood drain from John Reid's face when he saw the Glasgow Yes result will know just how rampant the fear will be in scottish labour now. We have them cheek by jowl with tories being praised by Cameron and they are going to pay a truly enormous price for that in coming elections.

    The westminster system is corrupt and broken. It's failings are systemic. You can replace Cameron with Boris or Hammond, little Ed with Burnham or Cooper and it will not make the slightest difference. They are fundamentally out of touch with the public and always will be since that's the only way they can win power in westminster. Their pitiful turnouts for a GE will be met with amused scorn from now on thanks to the scottish public.

    The papers circulations will continue to collapse. The BBC have burned their bridges and a look at the fear on some of their faces tonight tells you that they know the colossal turnout and sheer number of scots who voted Yes does not bode well for them and their Iraq levels of propaganda. (as one of their OWN former lead journalists from Newsnight said)


    So now labour and the tories (the lib dems are an irrelevance and will be smashed in 2015) on No have a simple choice. To deliver something credible to the scottish public (which they can't) or watch the clamour for another vote when there's more cretinous middle east wars, more austerity, more westmisnter scandals and more privatisation.

    I have an immense sadness for those who will not be around in the 10-15 or so years this will likely take to come round again. People like Colin who at 81 was one of the most inspiring campaigners I have ever come across. Always cheery, an expert leafleter and a man who dared to dream of a better scotland.

    So when this does come around again, as it inevitably must, I will dedicate my efforts and redouble them for Colin and all those who have set us on an irreversible path but will likely not see it themselves sadly.

    Saor Alba.

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  12. Once again James, thank you so much for all your hard work. It strikes me that we are left facing two choices 1. Do we now bow down to our Imperial masters? 2. Do we carry on with the fight? Naturally, I'm disappointed because for one brief moment I really thought we had it in the bag. However, it was not to be. At least not this time. In 8 months time we will have a chance to bring the pro Union parties to task if they fail to adhere to their pledges. Frankly, I'm not holding my breath on that one, but we'll just have to wait and see. My only fear is that we won't have any fight left. We may have lost this battle, but my no means have we lost the war.

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  13. " My only fear is that we won't have any fight left. "

    Oh but we most definitely will. Our inspiration and resolve comes from the people. The ordinary people not the scaremongering corporations and corrupt westminster elite and media.

    The fearmongers have put everything on the line and scotland has put them very firmly on notice and borrowed time.

    The younger generations are now engaged to replace the older generations we will lose. The dispossessed and disillusioned now know they can put the fear of god into the most powerful.

    Those who gave in to the fear did not do so happily. Be in no doubt about that. They in particular will not forget or forgive westminster when the half-baked hyped up promises and pledges for more powers turn to dust and the westminster leaders start blaming each other to for why they can not deliver.

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  14. Mick (Swallows) Pork (Swords)September 19, 2014 at 6:32 AM

    This one is for you micky boy!

    ROFL! LOL! ROFL! LOL!

    where is your momentum now kid? Mind you, you were right about one thing, we really did underestimate the "missing million" , they were even more missing than we expected!

    ROFL! LOL!

    by the way Kelly, you should really change that shitty profile pic, with the tacky fake armour and that queer little smile, you look like some kind of novelty rentboy.

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  15. I know I said I rarely delete comments, but my patience is not inexhaustible.

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  16. Quite happy to contribute James. You only have to set it up. The anonymous cock above will be a taste of what's to come I'm afraid, but you and we must soldier on.

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  17. OK, Mr "Jelly", that one was deleted for excessive bad language.

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  18. Andy Coulson still in Prison is he?

    Yes, he is, and he'll be coming to scotland for another trial soon enough.


    As you say.. ROFL! LOL! ROFL! LOL! :-)

    The racists and bigots on Stormfront Lite will now have to watch in impotent fury as cowardly Cameron and little Ed start making backroom 'deals' over more powers while still refusing to answer the WLQ. Or alternatively, they don't and the tories new heroes and economic gurus Brown and Darling smack down Cameron as his tory backbenchers cries for EV4EL get denied by labour and the lib dems.

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  19. James - I appreciate that you will be very disappointed now, but congratulations nevertheless on your intelligent, positive and professional blog. I hope that it will continue in the years ahead.

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  20. Turns out it was turd-polishing after all.

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  21. "Turd polishing"? So it turns out that "Feline" was not an authentic Yes supporter worried about the polls, but was in fact a No campaign-sponsored concern troll after all? Well, you could knock me down with a feather.

    You guys must be so proud.

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  22. Its the end of Scotland. Sorry guys a lot of us fought all our lives for this. We should now devote ourselves to our families etc. I have given everything for this nation and it doesn't want to be a nation. I am not British. I thought I was Scottish but now I am just a human.

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  23. Lid dems and others now talking about a Welsh Parliament and moves to 'Home Rule' for Wales.

    Presumably to kill Plaid Cymru "stone dead".

    The panic isn't over yet. In fact it's merely entering the inevitable next stage.

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  24. Don't even think of taking this blog down James. We need people like you more than ever now and we have another battle to fight in May of next year. For now, I think we all need to take some time out to reflect on what we have achieved. Think back to this time last year when we thought we'd be lucky to get 30%. 1.5 million votes cant just be ignored and Cameron & Co do so at their peril.

    The No brigade want us to curl up and die. They want us to start ripping each other apart. The want us to vanish off the face of the earth and disappear. We won't let them and that's why sites like yours have to keep going. By
    closing it down you'd be walking straight into
    their trap. I'd happily contribute, although you may have to accept payment in Aussie dollars! lol

    I thought I would be bereft and suicidal in the event of a No vote. I thought I would just want to take to my bed for a week and pull the covers over my head. Strange as it may seem, I'm actually feeling quite stoical and calm. Massively disappointed, of course - but do you know something? I'll live to fight another day. So will we all.

    Enough of my incoherent ramblings. I admire you greatly James for all you've done. Don't listen to the stupid idiots on here who think it's clever to insult and denigrate you. You, above all people, can hold your head up high.

    Keep the faith.



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  25. Stick to the day job...whatever it is! You and Wings will be etched on the failure of the Yes as the doctors who span too far.

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  26. It begins.

    UKIP's Farage and Patrick O'Flynn calling for Barnett formula to be scrapped and fewer Scottish MPs at Westminster.

    http://www.ukip.org/nigel_farage_a_voice_for_england
    https://twitter.com/oflynnmep

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  27. Gotta say thanks for all your work putting a positive spin on all the polls for us. Not your fault you didn't get it right in the end. Perhaps you were a bit too positive for your own good and missed the warnings in the polls. But thanks for trying...we're all disappointed.

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  28. " Strange as it may seem, I'm actually feeling quite stoical and calm. Massively disappointed, of course - but do you know something? I'll live to fight another day. So will we all."

    Not strange at all neilakos. I am also merely reflecting what some of our campaigners felt this morning. Not to some aren't devastated or disappointed and feeling great sadness for the older generations and the children who should have had a better future for scotland as soon as possible.

    However, they will inevitably turn that sadness into renewed resolve and determination in the coming years. The out of touch westmisnter twits simply do not know who they are dealing with. A grass-roots campaign which can get an absolutely unprecedented turnout and put the fear of god into the entire corrupt westminster establishment and media is hardly going to give up after getting this close.

    They said devolution was impossible. Got it on the second try. They said an SNP majority was impossible. Got it on the second try. Well guess what comes next? :-)

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  29. Anon : Thanks, but I didn't actually make a prediction (apart from at the start of the year, but that one wasn't meant entirely seriously).

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  30. Just to add my thanks for an excellent blog which helped to keep my feet on the ground when others were getting carried away. And to say please do continue, I'll contribute to any fundraiser. We need you now more than ever.

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  31. @Mick Pork. Do you never shut up?

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  32. Suck it up Kelly, you twat.

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  33. James - Politics is a long, not a short, game.
    Westminster has been shaken to its core and has had to offer what it desperately tried to avoid offering.
    A few decades ago, support for Independence was lucky to get above 20%, before this Campaign around 30%, now 45% - it is a one-way street and everybody knows it.

    Ignore the Unionist Fannies trolling on here - they are well used to seeing polished turds, when they look in the mirror each morning, LOL!!

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  34. Pseudo intellectuals always get found out. Compromised idiot.

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  35. The out of touch twit Cameron seems deluded enough to think he decides when Independence will come back again.

    Sorry, you laughably inept second rate Blair impersonator, the scottish public will decide that just like they did the first time.

    You're going to be involved in a civil war in your own party over Europe soon enough chum. Best worry about your own MPs who will use EV4EL and more powers to start sticking the knife into your back first. I somehow doubt that Darling, Brown and little Ed will be too keen to castrate their own scottish labour MPs just to save you from your own backbenchers yet again. ;-)

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  36. James, do not give up. Once we have had a sleep and a chance to reflect a couple of things will become clear.

    1. you are the media now. We now know that the influence of the old media trumps the new media by just 55 to 45. That is close, and it is only going one way.

    2. The old media has lost its reputation for professionalism. I realised this morning I have not looked at the BBC once during the last few weeks. That would have been unthinkable even a year ago.

    3. We desperately need these alternative spaces. A movement has woken up. It has taken a hit today and now it needs to regroup and rethink how to make change for the better. It might come through traditional politics. It probably won't. But places like this are where we are going to start discussing it.

    Many thanks James for your contributed efforts.

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  37. Have only really come across your blog very recently and will concede that it is just a wee bit on the dry side for my. However, i do appreciate your work and would certainly chuck in whatever I can afford at the time.

    This battle may well be over but the war is still there to be won.

    Not sure how I select identity thing so aye the best

    Bill Urquhart

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  38. It feels as if a spirited steed has been dragged down into the mire by the gilded carriage it was forced to haul. To me it says it all that Yes was highest where poverty is greatest, and I know who I stand beside.

    James, I think you should keep this site going, launch a fundraiser while the iron's hot, but clean it up through moderation.

    Until a couple of weeks ago the commentary here was from a relatively small circle of people who interacted mostly respectfully. I even became quite fond of No supporters like Expat who made good points fair and square. However, in recent days it's been bombed by some with a less respectful way of engaging, that's piling on further now with the No vote, and it's dragging down the quality of the site and provoking you into response. I'd urge you to consider whether the stable door should be left open to purely abusive comments.

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  39. Yes I agree with you Alastair, its just depressing reading the comments from all the Unionist trolls, no need to give them any space!

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  40. James, I just came across your site in the last few days so no idea what your fundraiser was about or when. However having read it I would be happy to contribute in some way if I can.
    In terms of the result, and I await the trolls for daring to be positive, it was probably as good as we could expect at this stage in the progress to independence. The pressure for independence for smaller countries is inexorable. People across Europe are beginning to see the advantage of independence and direct participation in Europe. It will come. Thanks for your work.

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  41. James,

    I only recently started reading this blog; I wish I'd found it earlier as it's fantastic. Thank you so much for all you did. I'd be happy to contribute to a fundraiser. If there's one thing this referendum has taught us is that we need a free, unbiased Scottish media who will actually do some real journalism. Please get rid of the option to be anonymous, though. If people have something to say they should at least attach a name to themselves.

    I think when the dust has settled people will realise the 45% is actually a huge amount given that the entire force of the British establishment and media were against us. Quite some achievement to get to where we have under those circumstances. 45% is too high for them to renege entirely on their promises. We'll have a round 2, I have no doubt.

    For those on the No side; you've won a Pyrrhic victory at best based on biased media, lies, threats, smears and creating as much panic and fear as you possibly could. On that basis, I wouldn't crow too loudly if I were you. You've hurt yourselves, the institutions and establishment you claim to love far more than you've hurt the pro-independence side.

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  42. Hi James: Don't you even think about taking this blog down. There's an election coming up and folks like me who don't really understand the polling operates have been vitalised by what you write and gained new understanding.

    Obviously feeling a bit down just now but I'm crystal clear that this is not ended. I'm on holiday for the next couple of weeks and I'm just going to chill with a few good books then come back and carry on.

    Yes, it may be another fifteen years till the next one and I feel heartbroken for the folks of my father and mother's generation who wile likely not see it but hey, I'll (hopefully) be retired by then and I'll be out there on the doorsteps full time.

    Give it a wee while to sink in and when you come back with an appeal for funds I'll be there with whatever I have.

    Thanks again James it's been grand!
    Robert

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  43. Please continue with your blog James. Let's do this!

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  44. Disagree with Alastair about Expat as it sadly became more and more clear he was a one note troll who ran off when his one note proved to be untrue.

    Agree with Alastair about the spamming. You are certainly under no obligation to keep incoherent spam troll posts on your site any more than the other spam with can pop up on sites from time to time.


    Your choice as always though James.

    Also agree with Alistair 100% about being on the side of the poor, the vulnerable, the disabled and the dispossessed. I can look myself in the mirror and feel proud of where I stand. I somehow doubt those who are the obsequious stooges of Clegg, Cameron or Miliband can do the same.

    Scotland has had it's eyes opened at the very least so platitudes from the westminster elites will start sounding very hollow indeed to an ever larger number of No voters. They will inevitably see just how wise trusting them really was. I wish it were otherwise but the westminster elite can not change and do not even want to change. So the No voters will have to have it proved to themselves the hard way in the coming years. So be it.

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  45. a few trolls on here Kelly

    When most of the Yes recover from sleep,think about glasgow,dundee 45% ,we will refund you

    great blog

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  46. James, that referendum came only 7 years after the SNP won their first election - and that as a minority. How often in history do things move this fast? I'm mortified, and won't be listening to the news for a while, but this isn't the end at all. We all need some sleep and a re-charging of batteries. It might be a wee while before we're campaigning like that again, but it will happen, I'm sure. Many, many thanks for this blog - essential reading for me. Just one thing - can you do something about the illiterate, poisonous drivel that's started appearing in the comments?

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  47. Young James , I too wish to thank you for your analysis - if I was alarmed by polling your the man who calmed my nerves .

    Fund raise lad , for there is much work to be done, I just hope that I am still alive for the moment when Scotland cries Freedom again .
    Indeed ,I think it is more likely that I will be still alive to enjoy the end of the MSM in Scotland , Today I will cancel my TV licence and today I will no longer buy any newspaper and that includes the tepid Sunday Herald.

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  48. There is much work to be done to highlight all the twists and turns of the Unionists as we approach the 2015 Election. Labour in particular has to be forced to justify their miserly offer of powers, even outscored by the Tories.

    I am glad that Alex has conceded graciously and offered to work constructively in the cross party commission. We retain the moral high ground - always positive about Scotland's future.

    However, I am gutted. This is a lost opportunity to get rid of Trident, the House of Lords, the European question and the Eton toffs. We still have to live with the establishment thinking that they own us. It is up to us to make that conviction tremulous and short lived.

    All this says that pressure on the nae sayers must continue and in particular that Labour must be called to account for their mendaciousness.

    Keep going James.

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  49. Oh and just to point out the obvious. EV4EL simply isn't going to happen. I flagged up the McKay Commission years ago and the tory twits and kipper cretins didn't understand it then and quite clearly don't understand it now.


    Nor will Gordon (lies about child transplants) Brown be around to help 'save' scottish labour since he looks set to follow Blair on his lucrative travels/jobs in the U.S. soon enough. Darling will likely get his Lordship and toddle off to make more speeches to private healthcare firms for £10,000. So that leaves Murphy to try and rebuild SLAB (yet again) for 2016. Good luck with tha\t in Glasgow chum. LOL Unless of course Smurf demands a promotion from little Ed which would save him from such an 'onerous' task. ;-)

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  50. James, long time reader, never commented before. Thanks for this blog and all your work.

    I contributed to your fund raiser and will do so again if you will continue. We need you, possibly more than ever.

    Sue Varley

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  51. My proposal:

    Join WoS and create a Scottish political-analysis online newspaper. Look for sponsors, invest, hire people, run it like a business.

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  52. Xabi said exactly what I was thinking as I read the post.

    There is a massive talent pool out there. Newsnet Scotland, Yourself, Derek Bateman, Lesely Riddoch and others. Get together and start an online newspaper and get it well-run. It's exactly the kind of thing we need. WoS has a role to play, not sure if it should take a prominent role in forming a newspaper though.

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  53. Newsnet Scotland, Wings over Scotland, Bella Caledonia, and all the other websites that have fought so well to provide balanced reporting in the referendum campaign should now join forces in a tactical voting campaign that will capitalise on the now evident disillusionment with Westminster in Glasgow, the West of Scotland, and elsewhere with the purpose of electing as many independence seeking MP's to Westminster as we can at the UK General Election in May 2015.

    For it may very well be that Scotland's MP's can hold the balance of power and not only use that to hold the Westminster parties to account for their "Vows" and prevent Westminster attempts to enforce more neo-liberal policies on Scotland but also use their numbers to force very substantial further devolution concessions from whoever is the largest party hoping to form a UK government.

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  54. Don't forget that the Tories will try to stitch-up Labour in getting an 'English-only voting for English-only bills' legislation as part of their devo-lite bribe.
    This will make a huge contingent of North British Labour MP's effectively redundant.
    They will fight it tooth and nail.
    That will be fun to watch.
    Gordon Brown has trolled the Yes campaign to good effect but he and the rest of his North Briton Nationalist Party knows that the end will come with the inevitability
    of a creeping, rising tide that seems to die back before rising with a greater swell.
    It is merely a postponement, not a cancellation.
    We still live in interesting times.
    The No campaign trumped the Yes with a card marked constitutional crisis.

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  55. Xabi, Dave the Rave,

    I completely agree with you both about the online newspaper but I think it needs to be extended to a print version too. There are many people who either don't have the internet or who simply still buy a paper.

    I think I read somewhere that the Sunday Herald's readership went up considerably after they came out for Yes. So the business case is definitely there.

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  56. Disappointing night, but regardless of the result we can be proud of the huge turnout and engagement. I hope (sadly that's pretty much all we can do) that all those new voters will be rewarded with some real change for their effort.

    I've been reading your commentary for years (I think it was linked from a post by you on UKPR). It was always interesting to have deeper insight into Scottish opinion before the referendum became possible, and will continue to be. In fact especially so now there is bound to be less Scotland specific stuff in the media or the less of UKPR. I'll happily contribute as needed. I suggest a fundraiser should be either on a month or so, or about Feb.

    Whatever you chose to do, thanks for your efforts James!

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  57. James -thanks for all your hard work. To be honest I don't think I've the appetite for another fundraiser. What I might pay for is a joint Pro-Indy website - wings, bella, wee dug, newsnet, yourself.

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  58. If this campaign has demonstrated anything it's the moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the mainstream media, not least the appalling BBC. There is no longer anything that can be recognised as national Scottish media. The Herald and Scotsman are moribund, everything else run from London. We desperately need a new kind of digital Scottish media and you should be part of it.

    I don't know what kind of funding model can be devised in the long term but in the meantime I'm happy to chip in for a fundraiser.

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  59. James, Thanks for your great blog and I hope you continue to run it. Thanks also for your insightful analysis, political integrity and basic common sense. It's hard to take but now we have to accept the democratic decision of the Scottish people.

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  60. Yes please do keep going. I only found you in the final few weeks, but it has been a great alternative view of the polls not provided anywhere else. Well done for that!

    Also Lord Ashcroft poll this morning suggesting only 55+ and 18-24 voted no. :(

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  61. Due to my Spanish left-wing background, I know the experience of ElDiario.es.

    It is a left-wing online newspaper that is found through contributions of its "socios" (basically, subscriptors). The edition is entirely open and not hid behind a paywall, but the socios get some advantages, like previews of future news items.

    As far as I know, it works reasonably well.

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  62. Like everyone else across the UK I've been following the debate up north with absolute fascination - most of the time glued to this blog, if only because it has invariably provided the first news about emerging opinion polls, so many thanks to James for that

    I live in Wales where we have a small but statistically insignificant nationalist minority, but I have many Scottish friends and also several expat Scots in my wider family - some yeses, some noes, I did not want to wake up this morning and have to regard them as foreigners so for that reason I was hoping for a no vote - but was content to leave it to the free democratic will of the Scottish people.

    Clearly a blog like this will attract the more fervent adherents to the nationalist cause - so it's to be expected that the views expressed will be somewhat one sided. It has been interesting reading James' regular 'analysis' of the various figures - which have understandably sought to make the best of every statistic, regardless of the reality. E.g. The intro to this thread would presumably have used precisely the same template had the vote been 70/30 - I.e. Celebrating the fact that the no vote wasnt 75 or 80%

    I think what's needed now is a dose of realism - & I've been impressed by the conciliatory & statesmanlike comments emerging from both Salmond & Sturgeon - talking only about 'taking Scotland forward' - without a hint of nationalist rhetoric or of retaining the long term goal of separation.

    This is in stark contrast to many of the views being expressed on here this morning where you seem determined to reject the democratic decision of your fellow countrymen because you don't like it.

    Please just consider the possibility that the TWO MILLION scots who voted no might just be right ? They may not be as stupid or naive as you're suggesting - only voting against separation because they were misled by the misinformation and 'scaremongering' from 'the Westminster elite' - maybe, just maybe they are comfortable in both their Scottishness and their Britishness ? Maybe they do not and will not accept that Hadrians Wall should become an international border ?

    Whilst there was unquestionably some scaremongering on both sides, the two principal 'scares' from the no camp - the currency union and the need to re-apply to the EU - were simply telling the truth (albeit an uncomfortable one for the Yes campaign)

    So please keep the blog going, we will continue to need honest & vigorous debate in the years ahead - but wake up & smell the coffee - Salmond & Sturgeon are right - independence is now off the agenda for at least a generation.

    And please, please, show more respect for the two million Scots who don't share your views.

    Cue 'unionist troll' vitriol.....

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  63. As PB descends into a slathering storm of gloating Torydom I just wanted to come over here to say that although I was (and am) fundamentally opposed to the break-up of the UK, the supporters of the Yes camp should hold their heads up high. That will not be much of a consolation to you, I know, but you gave the British establishment - no, the global establishment - one hell of a fright. Hopefully, what you have fought for will lead to a much better Union - one in which the views of the people who live on this island are properly reflected by the Westminster elite; even better, maybe it will spell the beginning of the end of the Westminster elite. If things just carry on as they have done, you will have every right to return to this argument. And should that happen I have no doubt that next time you would win. Scotland has given the UK one more chance. I am grateful for that. But I also understand that if Westminster fails that is it, the game will be up.

    Southam Observer

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  64. Stick around James if you can.

    Yours has been one of several sites where I have found reason and insight to balance the output of the MSM during these last few months.

    Politics is a long game, and many folk will have voted out of fear and not for love of the union. I don't think we've seen the end of this yet...


    Ian

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  65. James, I'm not disappointed, I'm disgusted. I feel as if I don't want to set foot in Scotland again. But I read on another site that there was only 300,000 odd votes in it?

    I think you should consolidate your efforts with Bella, Wings, Kevin Bateman, NewsNet etc. It's no use all of you doing individual fundraisers. The effort needs to be consolidated and focused.

    If it is any consolation, I have never voted for the SNP and never supported independence before this campaign. Right now, I'm planning to join theSNP - against everything I could ever have imagined myself doing.

    This isn't over, not by a long shot. The pledges will be broken, and thanks to their time-table it will happen quickly enough that it's fresh in everyones memory (although I suspect very few people actually voted no because of their pathetic pledges). Then we have another Torie government (again, soon enough that we will all remember Ed Millibands claim that he'd be next). Then we have the EU referendum - when Europe will lose the UK and Scotland (maybe they'll speak up next time). After that, the economy will tank. Things are going to be interesting in the next few years.

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  66. James has ran a fair blog here, even to a disgusting maggoty NO troll like myself ;-) (is that a meta-troll?)

    He allowed views that didn't agree with is to be posted, his biggest insult to anyone was calling them a troll, or perhaps a tory. He should avoid the toxic brand of the Rev and WOS like the plague. Either stick with this blog or use it as a springboard to further his career. F*ck it, use this blog as your credentials, and get your nose in the SNP list and become a politician ;-) - having met some our MSPs you'd be an above average addition

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  67. Sorry it didn't go your way James. As a southern Englishman I didn't feel as if any of it affected me but the nationalists were more passionate and defied by apprehension more than reason.

    The three old fashioned parties and their supporters will always team up against any threat to their cosy hegemony. at least you're making progress and have shaken things up

    Sam from PB

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  68. wee jock poo-pong mcplopSeptember 19, 2014 at 11:28 AM

    I came late to your blog too James, but I think it's been exemplary in its openness, intelligence, insight and quality of writing. Please do not give up now - I'm another who would be happy to contribute to a fundraiser. Thank you so much for what was obviously a LOT of hard work. We all owe you a lot.

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  69. Anonymous from Wales,

    I wouldn't call you a unionist troll, simply sadly misinformed.

    You seem to be suggesting that democracy is a one-off occasion instead of a process (presumably because in this instance it suits you). That being the case, I guess you believe if your preferred political party loses an election that they shouldn't contest the next one since that would be the whole "respecting" people's views thing. I highly doubt that and it's no different in this case. This is a beginning not an end. You could also try taking your own advice and respecting the views of over 1.6 million Scots who didn't agree. I think we have every right to continue to speak up for our beliefs and our rights. Even if someone from Wales says differently.

    Incidentally, Hadrian's Wall is over 60 miles INSIDE England; it's not on the border of England and Scotland. Just saying.

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  70. James, you need to keep going. Your blog has been the voice of sanity over the course of the campaign. The campaign just needs to learn from our mistakes (the media still counts) and set another target. Blogs need to provide the analysis that will otherwise be done by newspapers and TV - biased analysis, in other words.

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  71. James, great work, hugely appreciated, happy to contribute to another fundraiser. I'm sure many others would be too - even though this work has left us exhausted and completely skint.

    At this point - when many of us feel heart broken that the movement for social justice and against the might of the establishment didn't win - we're also looking back at an extraordinary period of popular peer to peer education that you've been a big part of.

    I agree with the idea of some level of moderation, not to silence opposing views (the fact all are welcome or tolerated here is great) but to refuse those who are just using this as a space to vent a sad sad spleen that is poisoning them more than it is affecting us.

    I agree with Mick that we have every reason to feel proud of what we have achieved. I know he is a wonderful optimist, and his optimism is not born of delusion but from the thousands of real interactions he's had with others, inspiring them to believe they can make a difference. Well we can, but as he points out real struggles take longer than a couple of years; and this is a real struggle and its going to get harder before we win.

    As you know, I'm in the Greens, and this has immeasurably strengthened Green party people's understanding of why self-determination is so important. That commitment isn't going to vanish, quite the opposite.

    I would hope that where the SNP is a really effective and decent social democratic alternative, it can be complemented by a much stronger and radical Green party that is much more (like its sister party in England and Wales) committed to public ownership as well as to gaining our independence from climate destroying oil, especially given the wealth we have in Scotland in renewables.

    I would hope that many of the 45% will join the SNP, and that many will join the Greens. I can imagine these two ending up being the alternate larger parties at Holyrood over time - and they'd be distinct positive alternatives: the SNP challenging the Greens to be politically and economically realistic, and the Greens challenging the SNP to be ecologically and socially realistic.

    So stay with us James - if sites like yours and Bella and Newsnet and wee ginger dug and all can stay with us, then the tide will come in so much faster.

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  72. Hey James, I only discovered your blog about a week ago. It's pretty good though -- if you decide to keep it up I'd be prepared to make a small contribution.

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  73. Thanks for your efforts James, keep going.

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  74. Keep going James.... More elections on the way and we need to show those self serving MPs what we think of them. I knew nothing of polling methods, but find your site increasingly fascinating, and fair.
    Wait a wee while and then run your fundraiser...we need you. Well done

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  75. I'm a Better Together campaigner. Well, was a Better Together campaigner. Been involved for nearly two years now. I've become a pretty seasoned campaigner, something I would previously never have imagined doing. I'll have a lot more free time on my hands now. But I'm not going to gloat, that would be in poor taste.

    In hindsight, one of the best things that happened for my side was the YouGov 51% Yes poll. I was my usual calm self, realising it was only one poll, but many complacent No voters and even campaigners on my own side started running around like headless chickens. It made people realise just how close this thing would be. I'm disappointed that out lead wasn't higher, but relieved that it was in the double digits.

    I'm sorry about the disappointment you all feel today. I hope that, regardless of which side of the fence we were on, we can all work towards creating a better Scotland.

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  76. By the time you get your next referendum, in about 15-20 years, WE'LL HAVE TAKEN ALL YOUR OIL

    So that's it. This was your big chance. Now it's over. You lost.

    Chortle.

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  77. I certainly agree the yes campaign gave the establishment in the UK and beyond a hell of a fright, and there is much to commend in the grass roots effort and the sincere commitment of many thousands of people. I am sorry they are hurting today, but as Southam Observer said, they should hold their heads high.

    A few observations:

    1. The independence question is now settled for some considerable time. Salmond accepted this last night and polls taken during the campaign indicated that even yes supporters accepted that if the vote was no the issue should be parked for some considerable time. Stability is important, as is respecting the judgement of the electorate on constitutional matters.

    2. The yes campaign has scored a significant victory in the last-minute offer of greater powers. It probably doesn't appreciate yet how significant this victory could be. Given the timetable there will be no time to lick wounds, they need to get back on their feet quickly.

    3. The yes campaign failed because it was programmed only to transmit and not receive. Mick Pork said earlier it would learn lessons - well, it starts with a mindset shift. The questions on currency, EU membership and stability of oil revenues were all legitimate questions. All could have been answered better. All deserved to be taken seriously. Had they been, the result may have been different. There will always be doubters, there will always be inertia. the first step towards persuasion is to listen.

    4. the next major lesson Yes needs to learn is to respect its opponants. How many votes were lost as a result of the yes campaign, Salmond in particular, alienating those who felt affronted by the constant insinuation that no voters were either stupid or disloyal?

    5. The SNP needs to consider if Salmond is the right man to lead them from this point. I wonder whether he is the man without whom you could not have got this far, but the man with whom you cannot go any further. Sturgeon has had a very good campaign and may be the right person to lead the SNP from here.

    6. The polls had it broadly right all along. The polls that were derided on here, the pollsters whose motives were questioned and whose methods were ridiculed, actually had it right. There was no "missing million", C2DEs did not register in massive mumbers in order to carry yes home, and there probably was a slight "shy no" contingent. More lessons to learn for next time.

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  78. Wow Sean,

    How does that make you feel?

    Are you a really wealthy financier chortling out of sociopathic solitude, or someone who is under their thumb and kicking out because they make you feel like a loser all the time?

    Either way, it would be lovely if you could get a life.

    And hopefully one as bright as those who have been campaigning for Yes and are heart broken now, but have hearts which can break and hearts which can love. We are going nowhere.

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  79. All the undecideds I know who opted for yes (at the last minute) are now as gutted as the rest of us.
    They will never waver again.
    That is a huge positive.

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  80. WHY WAS EVERY HOUSEHOLD NOT SENT A WEE BLUE BOOK? FORGET MONEY SPENT ON MINIBUSES TO THE POLLING STATION

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  81. James, you have to keep this blog running. Its a crucial part of the new media landscape and has become the homepage of choice for many I'm sure. I'd quite happily pay a monthly/yearly subscription.

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  82. Anonymous, sending out copies of the Wee Blue Book to everyone wouldn't have helped much. Most people couldn't be bothered to read it. They'd probably open it, read a few lines and chuck it in the bin. There's a reason short leaflets are the norm in political campaigns.

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  83. Guinphy

    Sorry, I do not understand the points you make - apart from the welcome correction to my unforgiveable geographical howler about Hadrians Wall (although I think its a mite closer than 60 miles from the border at the Western end ?)

    Of course democracy is an ongoing process, but the general elections we have every five years are already embedded within our (albeit unwritten) constitution, and have long been accepted by all as such.

    As you well know, referendums are very different - & even the SNP leadership recognises you cant simply re-run it every five minutes, or five years until you get the result you want. Maybe in 20/30years - who knows ?

    As for the 1.6m who voted yes, of course I respect them, & have never suggested I don't. I have no doubt that most made an informed and honest judgement based on the facts - individually their views are as valid as the 2m who voted no - but they lost !!

    I would never demonise the yes voters because I don't agree with them - but this is a courtesy that many on this blog do not seem prepared to extend to the No voters

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  84. The deluded No trolls seem arrogant enough to think that only they get to decide what the scottish people will want to care about and when. Yet they somehow don't appear to have noticed that the last minute panic pledges from their parties mean westminster is now on borrowed time and it's last chance.

    Devolution wasn't thrown out the window because of the first time it failed so I'm afraid the desperate attempts to dictate what the scottish public will decide to care about in 10-15 years time are utterly futile.

    We have accepted last night's result but please don't insult anyone's intelligence by pretending that the truly massive number of Yes voters are now disenfranchised forever. You are simply wrong and what's more you know you are.

    If you were confident that scotland and the scottish public will be perfectly happy with what westminster now does for 10-15 years hence you might have a point. The terrified fear you are displaying at the prospect of the scottish public judging just how 'better together' we may be in 10-15 years time betrays the truth.

    You simply do not get to choose what the scottish public cares about a decade or so in the future. Get used to the reality of that fact.


    While you are at it you had better fervently pray your beloved westminster leaders are up to delivering all they have promised and more to the scottish public.

    We all know what the desperate promises of "better together" meant so the out of touch and corrupt westminster elite will now have to somehow avoid all the disgusting scandals, greed, austerity, pointless wars, lies and out of touch incompetence they are notorious for.

    The 45% of scots will most assuredly be watching and taking note for the next time because there WILL BE a next time, just like there was with Devolution.

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  85. Thanks for all your efforts over the past couple of years James. Your blog has been invaluable.

    I'm deeply disappointed with the result of course. I genuinely believed we were going to do this. The Scotland I thought existed perhaps only did so in my imagination and that's something I just have to accept.




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  86. "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, and then they win."

    Mahatma McGandhi

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  87. There's a petition circulating about this already. Is it a set-up (I thought everything was being scrutinised closely)or is there anything in it?

    http://shaunynews.com/2014/09/19/why-did-1-million-people-not-vote-who-were-registered-video-proof-cheating/

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  88. First and foremost as one of the small number of Nos here along with Stoat (though I am certainly not a BT campaigner just a concerned Labour Scot) let me dissociate myself completely from the occasional gloating and mentally-challenged No-trolls we've seen here today. They are frankly scum and a moment's thought would tell you that the majority of Scots who voted NO, are not like that and never would or could be.

    James this site has proved incredibly valuable, it was as far as I can see the first to spot the coming Yes swing and/or the inaccuracy of the polls (which one was it? Well perhaps a bit of both, I hope we will know one day.) My sense is Kellner was looking over his shoulder at you all the way and tweaking his methods in anxiety as a result which was only for the better.

    Also James as far as I can see you were way first with all the big polling stories, the 1% lead Yes from YouGov which altered the whole campaign and the weird 8% Yes poll, both of which I thought at the time probably foretold a Yes victory. Again whether the polls were out or the major No fight back stopped the Yes juggernaut in its tracks would be interesting to discover. But the point is you would wait days to see polls on Curtice, which you were showing in minutes here. And I think you were among the first to admit it was Game Over, that was when I knew it was.

    So I would certainly contribute to a fumdraiser to keep the site going, and wonder if you wouldn't add the UK-wide elections to your psephological armoury which would then make the site even more useful.

    Alastair thanks for your generosity.

    MICK PORK you wrote to Alastair of me.

    "I Disagree with Alastair about Expat as it sadly became more and more clear he was a one note troll who ran off when his one note proved to be untrue."

    Mick I am amazed you would bother to spend time discussing me on such a major day but since you have I would like to point out (a) I have posted on many other topics beside Murdoch (though I was the first to note he intended to intervene as he very nearly did before visiting Scotland and deciding it was too risky-- I always said if he backed off it would be because he smelled defeat just as you said correctly if he joined up it would be because he smelled victory. . (b) I never ran off, no doubt you were too busy to see my posts yesterday and the day before and two days before that which is fait enough but your allegation is quite false

    I can't think we would ever agree but I did support two of the charities you posted here though you'll probably disbelieve me. I could argue that many many things you predicted did not happen but I won't. What is the point of such argument now? Can we just disagree and leave it at that?.


    Finally I'd just thank everyone for their discussion and analysis, yes even Mick. I take no pleasure at all in the disappointment of anyone here and the fight for justice goes on, though in different ways. .And I am not running off but I won't be here again for a few days though I will be back and will contribute to a crowdfunder. We've all, James especailly earned a breather now.



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  89. James, greeting from Wales! Your blog has been brilliant - very informative.

    I was/still am GUTTED at the result, I mean heartbroken. A new way was possible (for all of us, even in Wales). Scotland could have shown us a fairer society built on freedom, liberty, justice and fairness.

    Alas, it wasn't to be! The flame has been dampened but NOT extinguished. It burns on. It is impossible friends to extinguish a flame that burns inside us all - a flame of hope, fairness, justice, pride, passion and equality - this will burn on forever from one generation to the next.

    I wish you well in Scotland from Wales, I really do. As for what comes next? Well who knows! But if you stop the fight that's it... its over! And if I know one thing about the Celts (even at this awful moment) we are fighters!

    Vaughan Williams.
    @Vaughan_Wms

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  90. "Devolution will kill Nationalism stone dead"

    George Robertson, Baron Robertson of Port Ellen

    "I believe in giving people a second chance"

    David Cameron on hiring his close friend and spindoctor Andy Coulson. (Now in prison with further charges pending in scotland)


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XA0bm6dior4

    Industry report: Scotland set for 100 year oil boom West of Shetland

    Increased oil investment in Scotland’s Atlantic waters has led to a growth in the strength of Scotland’s oil and gas sector. In recent months reports have focus on the new Clair Ridge field, a massive £4.5 billion oil investment project.

    A new industry report goes even further and estimates that these recent investments represent only a fraction of a 100 year oil boom for Scotland’s Atlantic Margin.

    The report, commissioned by Oil and Gas People, the world’s largest oil and gas industry jobs board, with support from North Sea oil and gas industry experts, conclude that untapped oil and gas in the West Coast will last for at least 100 years, with a whole value of more than £1 trillion.

    Investors Chronicle reported that politicians in Westminster were underestimating the value of Scotland’s oil and gas to undermine the case for Scottish independence. Former Chancellor Dennis Healey admitted that this ploy was used in the 1970s.

    http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/industry-report-scotland-set-for-100-year-oil-boom-west-of-shetland/

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  91. The Nawbag Alliance were victorious yesterday by fair means and foul.

    Don't let them win today as well by abandoning the 1.6m people who voted for hope.

    Show people that politics is meaningful, the 45% matter and that Yessers have principles.

    They want us to shut up, shut up shop and go home, just as Scottish politics enters its most interesting period for a decade.

    We need a critical eye on these clowns more than ever.

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  92. The No voters are racists, Quislings, Morons, Bigots and scum.

    Every single one of them, including my parents, voted so exterminate Scotland.

    There can be no excuses for voting No. NONE! They are the enemy of freedom. The enemy of truth. the enemy of Life itself.

    Never forgive them. They chose their fate.

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  93. My deepest fear has, come to pass. Scotland has become Scotlandshire, the labour heartland of the the downtrodden, lumpenproletariat.

    Those, of us, who dreamt of better things must not melt away; like snow of a dyke. We need to take a deep breath, gather ourselves and prepare to fight the good fight, for as long as it takes.

    The future looks bleak and it will be, but the old guard are dying, 45% of Scots still believe, we can use that as a base to continue to build a momentum and perhaps we won't need to wait decades for the breakthrough.

    JimnArlene

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  94. We can't give up on the No voters, because that way lies despair and perpetual defeat. We need to be the people holding Wesminster to account, showing the reluctant Nos (of whom there are many) that they cannot be trusted.

    Today, I am gutted and, to my horror, feel a little shame and a little less Scottish. But I'm sure that will pass.

    As our brothers across the sea say, our day will come. I'm more sure than I've ever been. Scotland will be an independent country.

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  95. James thank you for all the stats and the breakdowns , it made life a lot easier to understand the pollsters . The up coming so called extra powers for us , the the two elections and the Euro referendum needs a new media to get to grips with all of it , all the independence bloggers , including yourself should get together and become the new media . A people driven media , that educates and informs , think of the possibilities . Thank you for everything during the referendum .... Trick

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  96. Mick, for all your bluster, I don't think anyone is saying it is not a matter for the Scots whether independence comes back onto the agenda. But it is fair to point out that it is off the table for a while - as Salmond (a deluded no troll) recognises. This is consistent with international precedent and the common decency of respecting the electorate's decision and not asking them again repeatedly in the hope of a different answer. Also outside passionate nats like yourself there will be a very large number of Scottish people, including many yes voters, who will have found this a divisive and exhausting experience and not one they would particularly want to repeat any time soon, particularly not if Scotland benefits from enhanced powers under a newer, more deferal structure (which I hope and believe will be the case).

    I know you like to play the victim card, but it's really unwarranted. Cameron agreed to a referendum immediately after Scotland elected a majority SNP administration. He agreed to Salmond's choice of question, despite its flaws, and Salmond's preferred date, even though it clearly favoured the yes campaign in its timing. The will of the Scottish people has been respected, and will be respected in the future.

    You may be right that Scotland will clamour for independence in 10-15 years. Certainly those who predicted that devolution would kill independence stone dead were wrong; but the two are different questions. I don't presume to know how this will play out, but if I had to guess, I don't think I would profoundly disagree. But I think it's fair to observe that anyone who has read your posts over the last few weeks will see that your powers of prediction aren't terribly good. Even now, as you come to terms with your defeat, you don't seem capable of understanding how it happened.

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  97. Ignoring the ramifications of the result for a minute, I think it's only fair to say the polling companies got it fairly close in the end. There was a slight overestimation of Yes but that might be explained by the status quo effect (the swing away from Yes on election day everybody had predicted).

    There were a lot of wild claims being thrown around on both sides about bias so they deserve credit where it's due. The stuff about canvassing being better than polls, the "shy Yes" hypothesis, the slightly unfair criticism of YouGov - all of this seemed like nonsense at the time and was proven to be such in the end. The science behind polling is imperfect, but it's not meaningless and the polling companies deserve some respect for that given all the stick they took.

    It might not seem like it now, but this isn't the last big political event we'll face in our lives so next time I think we should be a bit more reasonable about the polling and listen to what it's telling us. Polling companies aren't on any "side" they're simply measuring what's actually happening. It would be foolish not to take that on board.

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  98. James, thank you for your efforts with this blog. If you raise money I will donate. Regardless, keep writing somewhere online and let us know where that is.

    A lesson learned on social media. It may have helped but was not predictive, so that question is now answered.

    We did not have the needed voting differential that was needed. NO voters showed up and did not need a van to take them.

    A lot of disenfranchised voters did vote but that was labour intensive compared to BT. So there probably was a differential and we did not keep up to even keep the status quo.

    YES won with anyone not retired, that is the reality. In fifteen years those retired NO voters will largely be gone.

    There are probably lessons on good governance for the Scottish parliament and the needs of the people it serves.

    I always felt independence was good for BOTH Scotland and England. The next few years are not going to be good for that relationship, not because of the referendum but because of the peices of Englsih silver the liblabcons "promised."

    I have been a longtime SNP member south of the border and thought for awhile this morning maybe its time to just let it lapse and go. Fifteen years is not a long time, not long at all.

    I am older but not old. I asked myself if I would live to see the day when Scotland is standing on its own two feet?

    We thought last night was the step to independence, our mistake was that it was only the first.

    Thank you everyone.

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  99. Peter

    As you should be aware, in
    The past, scottish polls have always been miles apart from the actual result, so, it was perfectly natural to assume they were performing similarly for this referendum

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  100. I didn't make that assumption at the time and it certainly doesn't stack up now. What we saw is the same thing we always see in passionate campaigns - people assuming polls are flawed/biased because they disagree with them, nothing more.

    There will always be a justification that can be brought up for that - the regional votes in 2011 ended up being the justification in this case - but next time I hope we'll have learned the lesson. As I said, polls aren't perfect, but they were clearly honest and more accurate than many people gave them credit for. Some of the comments from Mick in particular were borderline hysterical so he should have the good grace to accept he was wrong.

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  101. I've come across some truly sad information - looks age had a BIG part to play in the referendum. The under 55s voted heavily for Yes. The over 55s stopped them. This seems pretty selfish to me.

    Age 16-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
    Yes 71 48 59 53 52 43 27
    No 29 52 41 47 48 57 73

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  102. I may return to this point in more detail, but the idea that the pollsters have been vindicated is utterly risible. That they all magically converged at the end doesn't change the fact that at least half of them clearly had a systemic bias throughout much of the campaign - either Survation, ICM and Panelbase were overstating Yes, or YouGov, Ipsos-Mori and TNS were overstating No. If it's the latter, then they have serious questions to answer, because the media coverage of the long campaign was distorted by the perception that Yes were "miles behind" and "couldn't win".

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  103. Was age the critical factor in the vote?

    It would sort of explain the rationale behind the Better Together campaign, better known as Project Fear.

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  104. Jim Sillars knew what was coming - that the pensioners were going to fck this up for everyone else. Thats why he wrote his open letter to them. I'm so fkn angry with their selfishness

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  105. Thinking darkly. If another referendum was held in 5 years time Scotland's birth and death rates would ensure a majority for independence.

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  106. @Flockers

    'Cameron agreed to a referendum immediately after Scotland elected a majority SNP administration.'

    No he didn't.

    'He agreed to Salmond's choice of question'

    No he didn't.

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  107. Commiserations you crazy separatist loons you!

    Nah really, you can all hold your heads up. Has there been any other democratic moment like this in any of our lifetimes? The credit for that has to go to the Yes campaign.

    Further, I think when the dust settles you'll see that you have lost a battle, not the war. Yes was 45%, not 10 or 20, 45. It'll come round again. In the meantime, Scotland is in a strong position to take at least some more powers back from Westminster.

    As some of you might know I was (just) No. I feel slightly empty about it now though, especially watching the slavering Tory Unionists winning with as much lack of grace as you would expect.

    Hope you keep the blog going James.

    Hugh

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  108. James, I will certainly contribute to a fund raiser. I really value your insights and you have helped me understand political polling a lot.

    I for one do not intend to give up on Independence. Didn't the Irish Government ask a question of the electorate more than once, when they did not get the "right"
    answer the first time? So why should a devolved government be barred from doing so?

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  109. You seriously don't get it do you Flockers old bean?

    At no point have I said this comes back tomorrow or in a couple of years. I gave a realistic timescale based on past precedent and indeed just how long it will take westminster to completely implode yet again and expose all the lies they and the westmisnter bubble media have peddled.

    If you want a shorter timescale don't look to me, look to a prominent lib dem and Clegg supporter/strategist who only today was talking about..

    "The result was not a massive vote of confidence in the UK as it stands. The union has been put on probation. If people are not given signifiant new powers that make a difference, we’ll be back here in 5 years’ time"

    The bluster is entirely yours as the absolutely unprecedented turnout makes a complete mockery of your pitiful attempts to smear this vast and incredibly well handled democratic vote. So will it be the next time but even more so as those of us who fought for this all our lives learn from past mistakes or we wouldn't have got this far after decades of hard work and struggle.

    "Cameron agreed to a referendum immediately after Scotland elected a majority SNP administration."

    LOL

    Are you seriously suggesting he could do anything other than that? When the democratic will of the people is expressed for a referendum that is indeed IT. Doesn't matter if it's the SNP and Independence or the tories and their IN/OUT referendum or the lib dems and AV. The precedent has been set and, rest assured, anyone who tried to stand against it would ensure a MASSIVE backlash against them and only hasten Independence.

    "Certainly those who predicted that devolution would kill independence stone dead were wrong; but the two are different questions."

    Again, the same westmisnter bubble thinking that was behind "devolution would kill independence stone dead". You just don't understand but at least in this you are not alone as the westminster twits show ZERO sign of grasping it either as they panic, argue and blunder about comically over more tiny 'jam tomorrow' powers right this second.


    Devolution is a PROCESS. Tam Dalyell understood that even if the westminster parties still clearly do not as they bandy about the WLQ term as ignorantly as they did "DevoMax".

    Or perhaps you think there won't be a GIGANTIC spotlight on every single aspect of these amusing new 'powers' and precisely what they entail? Yeah, don't think that's going to happen in scotland somehow.

    Perhaps it was a mere coincidence Nicola was so powerful and advocate and Salmond is now stepping down. Or perhaps we think in timescales greater than you or westmisnter can handle?

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  110. Incidently, there are at least four incredible new young talents that I know of are now being lined up who could be the generation after Nicola. So, again, You had better get used to a party that thinks in timscales longer than the blind panic every five minutes from westminster.

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  111. Let's also just add up the achievements of Salmond before the shrieking out of touch tory twits make a fool of themselves again.


    Succesfully ran and turned a minority administration into a LANDSLIDE majority for the SNP.

    Saw off THREE scottish party leaders after that landslide using a voting system specifically designed to prevent a majority.

    Delivered precisely what he had to and what his party always wanted and gave the scottish public their first Independence Referendum which garnered 45% support for Yes with an absolutely incredible turnout of 85% which will shame the out of touch westminster twits to the end of their days.

    But on the other hand the incompetent fop Cameron hasn't even won a majority yet under FPTP. Even against Brown straight after he was at the helm of the biggest economic disaster in decades.

    Poor old Cammie even had to rely on Darling and the "crash" Gordon to deliver undecided Labour voters for the referendum and boy! is he going to regret that when he and the tories tries try to trot out "Don't let labour ruin it again!"

    LOL

    We could mention little Ed and calamity Clegg but everyone already knows what an absolute joke they are anyway.

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  112. I would personally contribute to another fundraiser. However, IMO James, you should run it ASAP before traffic drops off.

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  113. It would almost be worth it to hear the repulsive coward TheScreamingEagles attempt to spin Brown saving Cammie's hide in the referendum as a 'triumph' for the incompetent fop. But them again, he is the repulsive tory twit who lied about his own child dying to try and welch on a bet.

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/political-betting-moderator-screaming.html

    So let's just let the PoliticalBetting bigots and racists on Stormfront Lite wallow in their fetid shallow puddle of ignorance and utter cluelessness as they writhe about spitting hatred at that which they do not understand and fear. As usual.

    Now we move on from one of the most important figures in modern UK politics and begin to enter the next phase of scottish politics and the SNP.

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  114. I will take that as confirmation that you agree Hugh since you at least have shown some insight into scottish politics and are not as wilfully blind as the imbeciles and twits on PB. ;-)

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  115. Cameron refuses to guarantee a vote on the Brown Timetable.

    Millipede refuses to support Cameron's Devolution proposals.

    And Clegg says ... Who gives a fuck what he says.


    Not even 24 hours since the polls closed and every single promise of more powers has been show to be a lie.

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  116. Cameron refuses to guarantee a vote on the Brown Timetable.

    Millipede refuses to support Cameron's Devolution proposals.

    And Clegg says ... Who gives a fuck what he says.


    Not even 24 hours since the polls closed and every single promise of more powers has been show to be a lie.

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  117. This is the 1st time I have posted on this blog, even though I have read it since the start and have contributed to the Yes campaign throughout.

    I have been in tears through the disappointment felt that we did not persuade enough people to vote for positive change...

    However I say this now. lets not be disheartened, let's not give up, let's fight harder than ever before to get the change we believe in.

    It is through blogs like this and newsnet and bella Caledonia that we came ultimately succeed because you can guarantee that Westminster will mess things up again through their own arrogance and we need to be ready to take advantage.

    So I say to you James that blogs like these strongly need to continue and each of us need to make a decision on how we contribute to maintain these sites and the visibility that the independence campaign has got outside of the MSM, which is not going to suddenly convert itself to our cause.

    Let's not give up, let's fight harder.

    Let's not stop now, but strive for greater powers.

    The future is ours, it is just going take a bit longer to reach.

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  118. "Not even 24 hours since the polls closed and every single promise of more powers has been show to be a lie. "

    Entirely as expected. Every quote, every interview every bit of weasel wording will be saved for later use. We wanted to win this referendum to ensure a better scotland for everyone in scotland as soon as possible. So we are all incredibly disappointed that we did not quite manage it this time and we will all take some time in our own ways to reflect on our sadness for all our fellow scots and campaigners.

    However, we always planned to keep fighting for what we believe and for some of us that starts again today.


    Cammie will be gone and replaced by another bullingdon twit like Boris, another chinless wonder or even May when the clamour from scots for another vote is irresistable. Though to be fair when the tory party implodes into civil war over Europe yet again who knows what kind of fruitcake or loon could take Cammie's job?

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  119. I might be able to make a small contribution...but can you tell me what the money is for?

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  120. Anon : To eat and to keep a roof over my head as I carry on blogging, basically. I also used some of the money from the last fundraiser on advertising.

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  121. It's over guys by a clear majority. If the core of the Yes support could see beyond their central belt council estates they'd see that most of Scotland is a great place to be and not the Tory oppressed poverty-stricken slum the SNP like to paint it as.
    This is backed up by the fact that 28 of the 32 council areas voted to remain within the UK ie. maintain the status quo and their lifestyle and not be hijacked by a Yes minority who want to wreck and tear apart all that we have for their own selfish nationalist agenda.

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  122. The BBC are reporting events with undisguised glee. They have learned absolutely nothing, which is unsurprising.

    45% of the scottish public in an unprecedented turnout did not believe their lies and propaganda. So good luck getting them to believe much else you say from now on.

    The BBC had also better hope the incompetent fop Cameron doesn't join in with any more pointless immoral wars and military action soon either.

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  123. "they'd see that most of Scotland is a great place to be"

    No wonder - it's got an SNP government.

    "28 of the 32 council areas"

    That jibe would work a hell of a lot better if a) that hadn't come about mainly because the Yes vote was relatively evenly spread, and b) three of the four areas where Yes won weren't so bloody enormous.

    Two years ago, you guys called it a "disaster for the SNP" when we won Scotland but lost Glasgow. You can't have it both ways.

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  124. "own selfish nationalist agenda."

    And so satire dies, not with a bang, but with a ridiculous comment on a blog.

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  125. "It's over guys by a clear majority."


    Yeah like Devolution was, right? Wrong. :-)

    Try harder chum. Feeble trolling even by the usual 'standards' of the cowardly bigots and racists from PB.

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  126. James: "I may return to this point in more detail, but the idea that the pollsters have been vindicated is utterly risible. That they all magically converged at the end doesn't change the fact that at least half of them clearly had a systemic bias throughout much of the campaign - either Survation, ICM and Panelbase were overstating Yes, or YouGov, Ipsos-Mori and TNS were overstating No."

    It's called convergence. Precisely the same thing has happened in countless other elections (e.g. in the 2008 US Presidential election the variance in Obama's lead in polls dropped from 7.9 to 3.2 in the last month). It comes from:

    1) People making up their mind closer to the vote

    2) Improvements in methodology as a campaign progresses

    If you disagree, go contribute to the copious academic literature on the subject.

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  127. @Callum


    Particularly hilarious as the out of touch westminster twits "vows" and pledges on more powers fall about their ears and are exposed as lies with superb comedy timing.

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  128. The polls all showing the same numbers just proves that they were rigged to sway people into voting they way their masters wanted.

    Kellner is still a cock and shouldn't the No trolls be signing on as their contracts with the Scotland Never campaign have ended.

    Cancelled the BBC tax today. Scared but had to be done.

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  129. "If you disagree, go contribute to the copious academic literature on the subject."

    Or, alternatively, I'll just make my point forcefully here. As I've just done.

    And I can't help but be somewhat bemused that your response to this comment of mine -

    "That they all magically converged"

    - was "it's called convergence".

    Convergence is called convergence? Who'd have thunk it?

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  130. I have no words to describe the sorrow I feel for my family and for Scotland after today's events; the loss of the referendum, the resignation of our First Minister, the inevitable condemnation to a darker future by Unionist backtracking and broken promises - nothing can ease the pain.

    Throughout this campaign I have looked to Robert the Bruce's story; though much of it is fictional I view his story as analogous to our movement as a whole. Bruce fought most of his adult life for independence, as many know, but he lost far more in his campaign proportionately than he won. He also lost most of those dearest to him. He was forced to go into retreat and often slept rough; some attribute the terminal illness he developed to this period.

    There is the myth of Bruce and the spider; the spider that spun the web that broke every time. "If at first you don't succeed, try, try again". Though the story itself is likely false, I do not doubt Bruce would have had such periods of reflection in his darkest hour before he rose to vanquish the enemies of Scotland. You could say that we are all in the cave now, in retreat after our most painful defeat yet; watching the spiders.

    Another point to note is that, despite Bruce's ultimate decisive victory over his foes, his reign over a truly independent state was extremely short lived. Bruce was already suffering from leprosy (or similar) in 1328 when the Treaty of Edinburgh-Northampton was signed. He died the following year, having only seen independence for a year at best.

    I am 19 years old. The referendum vote was the second vote of my life following the last European election. Though the greatest pain for me is by far the knowledge that so many members of my family and friends and valued colleagues will not see an independent Scotland, I know that possibility holds strong for me too, just as it did for Bruce, Wallace, de Moray and Wishart. In spite of that I swear to devote every remaining year of my life to the cause of securing Scotland as an independent nation-state because I believe, heart and soul, that it is right and just.

    We are the 45% for whom hope triumphed over fear. Stand and be counted, for we are the future.

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  131. Like everyone else here I'm gutted. However please don't give up as its very important that we have alternatives to the MSM. Happy to contribute again to another fund raiser.

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  132. PS to above: I'm over 55 and voted Yes so don't put us all in the 'bad' category!

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  133. Anon @ 6.38.

    I'm a lot older than you; I voted Yes for you and those even younger. My dearest wish was to be able to help gift you a better, fairer Scotland than we had ourselves and one that you could be proud of. I'm sorry to my heart for not being able to give you it.

    But you're right, it's not over yet. It's already been a very long road and there's been many before us, I hope there won't be too many to come after us. We'll do it yet. As you say, the story of Bruce and the spider may be just that but the meaning behind the story holds true.

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  134. Pat Buchanan, in his latest piece, wondered whether the Scots were willing to suffer for the cause? The answer is no and there are many reasons to explain this response. I suspect many of the n-vote will experience a honeymoon period in the weeks ahead ...

    A famous ENGLISH poet said many centuries ago: learn to suffer or else I assure you, you will learn to suffer. Or, as Freddie Flintoff said when sledging an irritating opponent, "watch it pal, this game has a funny habit of biting you in the arse."

    Let's wait and see!

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  135. Oh I didn't realise the fundraiser was to pay you to write this blog. To be honest I'm skint and so are many others. Might've found a few quid for running costs but tbh James not to give you an income. Sorry

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  136. With respect, the nature of the fundraisers and what they were for have been comprehensively explained. I think that's quite a nasty comment and totally unwarranted. I have not in any way been trying to pressure people to donate (especially if they're skint), and I went out of my way to make that clear. But this is the real world, and it's not actually possible to do the equivalent of a job (in fact over the last few weeks it's been the equivalent of a full-time job) without receiving any income from it whatsoever. I do actually have to eat. So it's either run the fundraiser or stop the blog (or reduce it to a 'skeleton service').

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  137. Oh, and by the way, there are no "running costs" at all for a blog like this.

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  138. It doesn't necessarily follow that the 20 year old yes voter of today would still be a yes voter in 30 years' time. People change as they get older. They become more conservative and less afraid to rock the boat. Run this again in thirty years and I'd expect the same result.

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  139. Ah, so you're not pinning much hopes on support for independence diminishing from its current high watermark. Probably wise.

    There are course two little flaws in your logic -

    1) The exit polls showed that under-55s broke for Yes. If today's average 50-year-old is a Yes voter, it's murderously hard to see why the 20-year-old Yes voter of today would go No by the time they are 50 themselves.

    2) You're assuming the No preference of older people was predominantly driven by conservatism, rather than by a latent attachment to British identity. If it's the latter, you guys have got a problem - people may become more conservative as they get older, but I know of no evidence that they become more British.

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  140. *More afraid to rock the boat, I should say.

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