Wednesday, September 10, 2014

An important point about tonight's Survation poll

A new Survation poll is due to be released at 10.30 this evening, although there's always a chance the embargo will be broken earlier. The firm's chief has tweeted that the results are "quite something".  That could mean something good or bad for us, so I'm not going to speculate (unless anyone has heard something from a semi-credible source).

But there is something important that needs to be clarified.  It's not actually true that this poll will be the first to be wholly conducted since the public realised that Yes were in with a real chance of winning.  In fact, the fieldwork took place between Friday and yesterday, which covers a span of five days, two of which were before the news broke about Sunday's YouGov poll.  Indeed, to a small extent the fieldwork even overlapped with the fieldwork for the YouGov poll.  I don't know if Survation have procedures in place to spread out their interview invitations over the course of the fieldwork period, but if not, it's quite possible that MOST of this poll will have been conducted before the YouGov news broke, because most participants tend to respond straight away.

So whatever the poll shows, we should certainly bear that in mind when interpreting the results.

45 comments:

  1. An SNP NEC member says the poll 'follows the current direction of travel'

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  2. Lets hope it's good news all the same, although I agree caution should be taken.

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  3. That sounds like SNP spin for yes is up but not ahead. Only a week left, we really need to be pushing ahead in the polls!

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  4. Given the situation with the betting exchange markets, currency markets and share prices, anyone with inside information on any of the upcoming polls will be able to make a nice amount of money by taking a position before the details are disseminated further to the public.

    David Clegg at the Labour rag the Daily Record has been tweeting about how his phone has been ringing off the hook with finance companies wanting the results. These guys don't give a toss about democracy they just want to get in there fast and make a quick profit.

    Smithson has been trying his best on twitter to keep the odds where they are, but in terms of the Betfair market the only way things are heading is up. If we get to the weekend and polls still say it is close there is going to be a massive re-alignment on the betting markets which at the moment are out of line with current polling indicators. This will not last much longer.

    For those in the know however, there is a lot of money to be made over the next week.

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    1. Not sure that they are that out of line on present polling. If the polls are still pretty much even on the day, I would say No is the clear favourite at that point. The betting markets won't shift much unless the polls start to show Yes clearly ahead - say by 3-4 points consistently.

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  5. "Follows the current direction of travel" means a swing to Yes, but it does sound rather muted. Thing is, if there's a swing to Yes, but No retain their lead, there's not much of a window there for it legitimately to be described as "quite something". It's difficult to reconcile these two statements. Perhaps a 5-point deficit for Yes would just about qualify?

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  6. I suspect if the responses where spread over the period and bearing in mind its for the Daily record then it has been coordinated to coincide with all the hype about New powers etc from Miliband Osborne and Brown but ended before it has sunk in that theres nothing new or agreed even between parties. So probably favours NO and Daily Record can shout about how Brown and the exciting new powers have stopped the "nats" in their tracks ?

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  7. If it's "quite something" it needs to swing 5 points either side - something outwith 3% margin of error. However I'd say it pushes Yes further in the lead. If it swung back to No, Survation would look out of sync with the other pollsters, and the momentum of Yes.

    I'd say it's likely to show 54/55 Yes, 46/45 No.

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  8. Bear in mind that Survation have had differing leading questions ahead of the referendum question - I don't think we'll know exactly what the change on the last poll is until we know the leading questions...

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  9. Tweet from James Forsyth of the Spectator:

    "Hear that there'll be some much needed morale boosting news for the Union side this afternoon"

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  10. @stoat

    See recently tweeted new front page of spectator.

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  11. I'd be surprised if he was referring to the Spectator's front cover. I doubt that's going to boost anybody's morale. Plus he made the tweet I referred to at almost exactly the same time the cover went up.

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  12. Hmmm, poll is out this evening, not this afternoon.....

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  13. BP and Standard Life have both voiced support for No. SL warn of possible relocation of business.

    Basically both statements are rehashes of earlier statements.

    Suspect this was the morale boost?

    Imagine a steady stream of these will be on the way ...

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  14. The momentum is with Yes so I imagine the poll will reflect that otherwise what is the point of polls. Plus Cameron etc are not panicking and heading north if they don't have access to some pretty devastating private polling,

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  15. There are some people trying to hope that Survation is good news for NO and some optimistic tweets flying around, but absolutely nothing with the merest hint of credibility.

    As YES was on 47% last time, and given the trend since, and the dates for the field work, any significant move to NO would be bizarre indeed and seem to run counter to all other indicators.

    So I expect it to stay the same, or show more progress for YES. Any whispers to the contrary is just NO people desperate for good news as full blown panic has set in. These guys know they have no plan C, no grass movement of note, no politician on their side with any popularity. They are all cacking it and then some.

    Twitter chat is just clutching at straws. The idea that some chap at The Spectator has inside knowledge on a DR poll which they will be straining every sinew to keep to themselves defies all credibility.

    We are now in the crazy period now.

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  16. I wouldn't say it's desperate, just raising the possibility. Previously I've found that journalists often have inside knowledge of polls before they're released, even polls that have been commissioned by different publications. Though I would agree that odds are he's not referring to that, given that he referred to the afternoon rather than evening.

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  17. Don't think there'd be much point in journalists saying that a poll is good for their side when it actually turns out to be bad. Just makes it look worse when it appears. But yes, "this afternoon" is a bit of a strange way of describing 10.30pm.

    Maybe Cameron's resigning.

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  18. Survation diet, anyone?
    I've been living on alcohol and caffeine for a few days now.
    I've got a terrible feeling I will be unconscious when the referendum result is called.

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  19. PanelBase Indy survey today. Straight forward with no tricksy questions. Asked my nationality again. Apart from that standard questions.

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  20. I think the Spectator and Roden's tweets are to do with yet more economic woe for an indy Scotland.

    Rather than the poll.

    They'd be tweeting about it rather than speaking about economic stuff.

    I see Hargreaves Lansdown are calling the currency fluctuations 'noise' and to stick to the investment plan...for investors obviously lol


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  21. If you all want a chuckle listen to this! I am sure if it must be a spoof, hoax etc. (I hope!), but either way it is an absolutely hilarious anti-Scottish rant..

    http://www.bobfm.co.uk/on-air/breakfast/bob-fm-bans-scottish-music-ahead-of-independence-vote/

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  22. http://sharecast.com/news/new-scottish-independence-poll-on-wednesday-may-be-sensational/22032847.html

    Something but guesswork.

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  23. If the poll was good for No Blair McDougal would know b4 the Spectator and he would be tweeting by now

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  24. Yup, they think BP etc saying NO is bad news, but we've heard it all before. Tonight will be the last poll before we start to see if the offer of more powers have had any effect.
    Got to be a YES tonight!
    Been watching Sky News all day. Unlike the BBC they are giving Cameron et al a hard time!

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  25. To be honest short of Jesus coming back and proclaiming the Apocalypse is nigh if we vote YES, I doubt any scare stories will have much traction. The public has had this for so long now it has all become white noise to be honest which we have collectively decided to filter our. The scared will remain scared and the hopeful will not abandon hope, and those in between are fewer and fewer.

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  26. Thats just the point Anon. Cry wolf too many times, and when you might just get eaten.

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  27. Kay Burley just said on Sky News that a poll was coming out shortly and it is said it is YES that is doing well.
    Don't know if she was working on rumour, or does she know something?

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  28. Dunno, MacWhirter has said on twitter he is hearing result is no change with YES 47% and NO 53% and predicting that will be interpreted as a 'setback' for Salmond!

    I hope he is wrong, but I'd imagine he has his ear pretty close to the ground.

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  29. Just saw that too. How that could be 'quite something' I have no idea tho!

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  30. If MacWhirter is being brave enough to quote numbers then it suggests he's heard more than just a rumour. Bummer.

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  31. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  32. Paul Hutcheon now tweeting hinting result good for BT, so we can be fairly sure this poll is not gonna show any YES momentum and in the current climate that will be spun as some sort of mini-disaster for the YES camp. Hilarious! If polls show things as too close to call and within margin of error early next week I will be overjoyed. Best thing would be no feeling smug and complacent again!

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  33. I'll be back out campaigning shortly but, would you believe it! It turns out the ordinary scottish punters don't seem to be vastly impressed by the hilarious westminster omnipanic.


    Eyerolling was the very mildest reaction that was encountered at the stalls and the Yes shops to the westminster panic squad's PR stunt. Considerably harsher language than the comedy fop Cameron's "Effing" (ROFL) was deployed. Utter disbelief was another very common reaction.

    I'm wondering how the shambolic No campaign can possibly top this. However, with 'master strategists' like Cameron, little Ed and Clegg at the helm it's surely only a matter of time before they do. The westminster bubble media are still wildly out of touch with what's happening on the ground which, to be fair, is only to be expected.

    Yes materials flying off the stall and the shelves yet again and it's simply getting busier every day.

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  34. Well, NC with No in the lead would certainly count as interesting. With two No friendly (one face to face and one online) and two yes friendly (both online) showing no movement.

    There is no way we were going to get three good polls in a row.

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  35. I'm very surprised that Paul Hutcheon is tweeting that the Survation poll is good for BT (rumoured to be 53% - N 47% - Y). There is no reason to doubt him but that would indicate Survation have recorded very little change since before the first debate at the beginning of August. It also doesn't tie up with the utter panic in the No camp over the last two days.

    If it's not the Survation poll which has spooked them then what has?



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  36. Now official sadly, DR tweeting result as NO 53% and YES 47%.

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  37. Lots of expectation management going on, Yes friendly journo bring fed 53N, 47Y

    No friendly peeps stating 53Y, 47N

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  38. Confirmed by DR as 53/47 No. Could just be TNS and YouGov converging with the others to around 48-49% in the polls?

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  39. Excellent result. After the 3 amigos visit, i'm sure it will swing back again.
    60-65 Yes my prediction for the real poll. :-)

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  40. Just before I go out the door it's worth stressing that it's not only just one poll but we already know who is panicking and it sure as fuck isn't and won't be the Yes campaign.

    "I'm wondering how the shambolic No campaign can possibly top this. However, with 'master strategists' like Cameron, little Ed and Clegg at the helm it's surely only a matter of time before they do."


    No sooner had I said it than...


    James Williams ‏@jamswilliams85 10m

    .@SkyNews reporting @David_Cameron will revisit the #indyref campaign on Monday.



    ROFL

    Glorious!

    How can they possibly be this blind to how hilariously counterproductive westmisnter's panicking PR farce actually is??

    It's utterly incredible. Bring it on! :-D

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  41. 53N, 47Y. No change at all. Thank god for that - I was utterly bricking it, thinking we'd lost ground. Instead a Yes vote of 47% (which 2 weeks ago was considered very optimistic) and no increase or decrease.

    The hacks are calling this a "bad day for Salmond" (more like bad day for 47% of the Scottish electorate) but if on a "bad day" the best Better Together can do is no change with a high water mark of 47% then by god we can win this. I'm happy with this result, just as long as we can cover more ground in the other polls.

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  42. James, I'm not sure I understand the significance of your emphasis on the poll being conducted mainly or partly before the YouGov poll was published. I know that you believe that the polls themselves are instrumental in determining voting intentions in a longer time-frame but do you really believe that Survation's results in this poll would have been significantly different if wholly conducted after the YouGov results were published?

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