I have to put a caveat on the above headline, because it's based on the assumption that the Ashcroft poll was conducted by YouGov. However, I completed a YouGov survey a few days ago that used one of the three precise questions put forward by Ashcroft, so it seems too much of a coincidence. If so, here are the full figures for the Scottish government's proposed question, with the percentage changes from the last time YouGov asked the same question...
Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?
Yes 41% (+2)
No 59% (-2)
Of course, the Belle of Belize's sole purpose in bankrolling the poll was to build the case for a more 'No-friendly' question, but that backfired as well. To his evident dismay adding the words "or disagree" to the question doesn't make a statistically significant difference - indeed the outcome is identical to YouGov's last poll using the Scottish government's question, ie. 61%-39%. Not much evidence there of the Telegraph's hysterical claim based on an 'analysis' of its own self-selecting voodoo polls that the proposed question makes a 10% difference.
Thanks to Marcia for alerting me to Ipsos-Mori's voting intention figures for Holyrood - I'll try to write a post on that when I'm less pushed for time!