Wednesday, May 4, 2011

YouGov poll : SNP lead steady on both ballots

No rest for the wicked - no sooner had I finished saying that I wasn't sure if YouGov voting intention figures were going to appear today, they appear!

Constituency vote :

SNP 42% (-)
Labour 35% (+1)
Conservatives 11% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+1)

Regional list vote :

SNP 35% (-)
Labour 32% (-1)
Conservatives 13% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)
Greens 6% (-1)

This is basically a steady-as-she-goes poll - the SNP lead has crept up a bit on the regional list ballot, but has slipped very slightly in the constituencies. Of course it's the regional list vote that essentially determines the outcome, so it's slightly concerning that the lead there remains within the standard margin of error (a 'statistical tie', as the Americans would put it). But the good news is that it really does now look like the Royal Wedding has had no impact at all.

As a reference-point, the YouGov poll at the equivalent stage four years ago showed SNP leads of 6% and 5% respectively - so if today's leads are being overstated by the same amounts, this could yet be very close. However, a significant difference this time is that we won't have the Sun attempting a hatchet job on the SNP tomorrow morning (quite the reverse, in fact).

UPDATE : One point of concern from the YouGov polling that I hadn't previously spotted is that the SNP lead is largely founded on support from younger age groups - an exact reversal of the pattern in 2007. The problem is that the younger you are, the less likely you are to turn out to vote. Of course reported likelihood to vote is already factored into the headline YouGov figures - but unfortunately an unrealistic 70% of respondents claimed they were 'absolutely certain to vote', leaving an important question mark hanging in the air.


  1. Still looking good for the SNP and to be honest I think this could be more like the final result.

    How does this translate into seats?

  2. Allan, according to the Scotland Votes predictor, it's :

    SNP 54
    Labour 46
    Conservatives 16
    Liberal Democrats 7
    Greens 5
    Independent 1

  3. Cheers James.

    Still not a bad night if it ends up like that.

  4. Relax - the campaign is going well.

  5. I just wish I was more confident, but I've really not got an optimistic feeling about tomorrow at all. I know on paper, things look good, but I hope the SNP have a first class GOTV operation prepared for tomorrow. Even the weather doesn't look to be onside after weeks and weeks of sun!

    Pre-match nerves - I hope so. Natural Scottish pessimism - definitely.

  6. from a post from Oldnat on NNS:

    Percentage of each party's support saying "certain to vote"

    SNP 80%
    Con 78%
    Lab 74%
    LD 68%

    also from Sky News as reported on Newsnet Scotland:

    'Sky News reporter said some senior Labour bloke has said Labour are going "to get a tanking in Scotland"'

    We live in interesting times.

  7. We're going to have to get everyone out.

    There are going to be some sore feet this time tomorrow.