Sunday, June 20, 2010

SNP take lead in ComRes subsample

I think we can safely put this one down to the gargantuan margin of error (witness the percentage change figures), but all the same it's reassuring to see this can still happen occasionally. These are the kind of numbers we wouldn't have batted an eyelid over back in the summer of 2008...

SNP 37% (+24)
Labour 27% (-27)
Liberal Democrats 17% (+6)
Conservatives 13% (-5)
Others 7% (+3)

Of course these subsample findings will now become even less meaningful than they were before, because they relate strictly to Westminster voting intention, whereas it's Holyrood voting intention we really need to know about. We could do with a full-scale Scottish poll from one of the more reliable companies - while TNS have a distinguished history in their previous guise as System 3, they've been producing some distinct outliers of late. My hunch is that Labour are ahead, but not quite by the margin TNS suggested recently.


  1. James, please never mention the summer of 2008 ever again.

    It hurts me to think how amazing things looked then.

  2. Apologies, Ezio. But our glass is definitely half-full, not half-empty!