Sunday, November 15, 2009

ComRes subsample : Labour retake lead

After last month's unusual ComRes subsample that had Labour languishing in third place, tonight's poll has the party back in a substantial lead over the SNP. The Conservatives slip to third place, with a vote share that, like almost all recent subsamples, gives very little cause for optimism that David Cameron's party will achieve the 24-26% share at the general election that might be seen as vaguely respectable for an incoming party of government. Here are the full figures -

Labour 40% (+18)
SNP 25% (-7)
Conservatives 21% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 9% (-1)
Others 4% (-8)

The fieldwork was carried out on Wednesday and Thursday, so these figures can in no way be seen as a post-Glasgow NE bounce for Labour. In any case, it's always worth remembering that ComRes generally have much smaller Scottish subsamples than YouGov, and the figures are accordingly far less meaningful.

1 comment:

  1. The fact that there are figures of +18, -7 and -8 swings, without there having been some ground shaking event to cause that, suggests an unreliability in the sample size.

    I wouldn't be throwing a party if I were whatsisname... you know, the leader of the Labour group in the Scottish Parliament, Iain Murphy, or whatever.