American polling expert Frank "John Reid will be the next PM" Luntz appeared on the BBC News channel on Friday morning, and indulged in some startling speculation that the outcome of the G20 summit has been so positive for Gordon Brown that he might even consider calling a snap general election. Hmmm. Let's assume for the sake of argument (on past form probably dangerous) that Luntz is correct in predicting Labour are about to see a temporary bounce of 3-4 points in the polls. That means that Brown will effectively be faced with the following two options when weighing up any decision about an election in June -
Option 1 : Relinquish the office of PM almost immediately, having held it for only two years, and hand over to a Tory government with a small majority.
Option 2 : Relinquish the office of PM in one year's time, having held it for three years, and hand over to a Tory government with a potentially landslide majority.
Option 1 would undoubtedly be in the best interests of the Labour party, option 2 would undoubtedly be in the best interests of Brown and his place in history. Knowing what we know about Brown's character, which do you think he is most likely to choose?